Transcript Slide 1

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR
PRESENTATION
ON
Financial Issues
&
Business Plan FY 2011
1
Financial Issues
2
Power Sector Debt Parked in PHCL (Debtco)
Bln. Rs.
Description
A- Operation loan
WAPDA
NTDC
LESCO
GEPCO
FESCO
IESCO
Sub Total
B- FATA Receivable
TFC
Total
WAPDA/ Transfer to
Outstanding*
PSCEs
PHC
48.0
120.5
13.0
11.5
11.5
11.5
216.0
37.0
80.0
11.0
40.5
24.0
141.0
23.5
75.0
85.1
301.1
85.1
226.1
75.0
* Issuance of revised guarantees/payment of transfer fee
3
Receivable Status 30-9-2010
Mln. Rs.
50,171
9,778
KESC
FATA
Provincial Govt. Departments
i) PUNJAB
ii) Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa
III) SINDH
IV) BALOCHISTAN
11,399
1,459
30,915
13,361
57,134
2,275
1,397
2,050
5,722
402
5,992
6,394
Federal Govt. Departments
i) Federal Govt. Deptts.
ii) Federal Govt Agencies
iii) Defence
AJK
i) GoP Share
II) AJ&K Share
Private
i) Deferred amount
ii) Permanently Disconnected Defaulters
iii) Running Defaulters
iv) Spill Over
Others (Autonomous Bodies, etc.)
3,529
25,080
71,603
21,088
Total
121,300
1,841
252,340
4
PAYABLE POSITION AS ON 8-11-2010
Mln Rs.
Payables
as on
30.06.2010
Billing
Payables
Payments as on
8.11.2010
GAS
16,842
13,546
12,420
17,040
OIL
23,507
31,765
24,583
32,464
IPPs
131,323
142,937
118,671
163,809
44,526
11,117
6,496
48,447
9,271
14,189
14,207
11,615
225,469
213,554
176,377
273,375
WAPDA Hydel
Misc. (NTDC/Gencos/Rental Projects)
TOTAL
5
Delay in Payment of Subsidies by GOP
FY 2009-10
Bln. Rs.
Opening
Receivable
30-6-2009
Claim
July-June
2010
Receipt
July-June
2010
Closing
Receivable
39.7
188.0
92.4
135.2
Agr- Subsidy 12.5% GOP Share
0.4
2.7
2.2
0.9
Agr- Balu. Subsidy 40% GOP Share
1.9
6.0
5.0
2.8
GST Subsidy
5.4
6.5
5.7
6.2
47.3
203.1
105.3
145.1
Description
FY 2009-10
Tariff Differential Subsidy
TOTAL
6
Delay in Payment of Subsidies by GOP
FY 2010-11
Bln. Rs.
Description
Opening
Receivable
30-6-2010
Claim
Receipt
Closing
Jul-Sep
Jul-Sep 2011 Receivable
2011
FY 2010-11
Tariff Differential Subsidy
135.2
62.1
33.8
163.5
Agr- Subsidy 12.5% GOP Share
0.9
0.9
Agr- Balu. Subsidy 40% GOP Share
2.8
2.8
GST Subsidy
6.2
2.8
1.1
7.9
145.1
64.9
34.9
175.1
TOTAL
7
Impact due to delay in tariff FY 2009-10
DISCOs
Bln.Rs.
LESCO
10.3
2.8
3.3
2.5
6.2
1.5
1.2
4.6
32.4
GEPCO
FESCO
IESCO
MEPCO
HESCO
QESCO
PESCO
Total
8
Details Regarding GST Receivable
Sr. No.
Description
1- GST difference between billing and
collection basis (FY 2009-10)
2- GST refund Receivable from FBR
(difference between Input and Output Tax)
accumulative amount upto 31-8-2010
Total
Mln. Rs.
8,054
27,178
35,232
9
DisCos Tariff Determined and Notified
Tariff Effective
24-02-2007
01-03-2008
05-09-2008
25-02-2009
01-10-2009
21-12-2009
01-01-2010
01-07-2010
01-10-2010
Determined
Tariff
Rs./kWh
5.13
5.58
8.35
8.35
8.35
10.09
10.09
10.35
10.15
Notified
Tariff
Rs./kWh
Difference
Rs./kWh
4.25
4.78
5.58
5.63
5.88
5.96
6.65
7.05
7.19
0.88
0.80
2.77
2.72
2.47
4.13
3.44
3.30
2.96
10
Progress (July – Spet, 2010)
11
Billing, Collection & Recovery Ratio (July-Sept.)
2010-11
2009-10
Incr./(Decr)
Name of Company
Billing
Collection
Recovery
Billing
Collection
Recovery
Recovery
(Mln Rs)
(Mln Rs)
%age
(Mln Rs)
(Mln Rs)
%age
%age
LESCO
44,099
40,934
92.8%
30,869
27,324
88.5%
4.3%
GEPCO
18,489
17,320
93.7%
13,094
11,638
88.9%
4.8%
FESCO
23,590
22,136
93.8%
16,996
15,296
90.0%
3.8%
MEPCO
26,010
23,076
88.7%
18,201
16,080
88.3%
0.4%
IESCO
21,806
19,097
87.6%
17,071
15,443
90.5%
-2.9%
Total Punjab
133,994
122,563
91.5%
96,230
85,782
89.1%
2.3%
PESCO
11,395
8,363
73.4%
10,723
7,648
71.3%
2.1%
HESCO
15,870
7,177
45.2%
11,818
5,815
49.2%
-4.0%
QESCO
8,365
1,833
21.9%
5,580
3,286
58.9%
-37.0%
Total Others
35,629
17,372
48.8%
28,121
16,750
59.6%
-10.8%
TESCO
4,152
158
3.8%
2,897
143
4.9%
-1.1%
173,775
140,094
80.6%
127,249
102,674
80.7%
-0.1%
-
-
TOTAL DISCOS
KESC
IPPs
G.TOTAL
7,451
-
-
8,246
-
42
54
129.6%
57
37
64.8%
64.8%
181,268
140,148
77.3%
135,552
102,712
75.8%
1.5%
1 % Recovery = 5.3 Bln. Rs.
Note: Funds of Rs. 5.0 billion received from GOP as FATA Subsidy in Jul, 2009.
12
Analysis of DISCO Losses (July-Sept.)
Companies
Units (Mkwh)
Received
Billed
Lost
Losses
%age
Last Year
%age
Incr/(Dec.)
%age
LESCO
5,121
4,334
787
15.4%
15.5%
-0.1%
GEPCO
2,336
1,998
338
14.5%
14.3%
0.2%
FESCO
2,866
2,553
313
10.9%
12.6%
-1.7%
IESCO
2,563
2,302
261
10.2%
12.2%
-2.0%
MEPCO
3,774
2,935
839
22.2%
23.1%
-0.9%
PESCO
3,602
2,285
1,318
36.6%
37.2%
-0.6%
HESCO
2,651
1,629
1,022
38.5%
40.1%
-1.6%
QESCO + TESCO
1,333
1,067
266
20.0%
20.8%
-0.8%
24,247
19,104
5,144
21.2%
22.0%
-0.8%
Total Discos
1 % Loss Impact = 5.6 Bln. Rs.
13
Analysis of Consumption Mix (July-Sept.)
Category
Units- MkWh
2010
2011
Sale %age
2010
2011
Domestic
9,359
10,001
50.2%
52.4%
Commercial
1,343
1,386
7.2%
7.3%
Industrial
4,011
4,192
21.5%
21.9%
649
662
3.5%
3.5%
2,827
2,407
15.2%
12.6%
437
456
2.3%
2.4%
18,626
19,104
100%
100%
Bulk
Agriculture
Others
Total
14
Analysis of Generation Mix (July-Sept.)
FY 2010-11
Hydel Thermal Total
Month
FY 2009-10
Hydel Thermal Total
NEO (MkWh)
July
August
September
Total
3,566
4,253
3,665
11,484
5,455
4,688
4,459
14,602
9,021
8,941
8,124
26,086
3,202
4,109
4,057
11,368
60%
52%
55%
56%
100%
100%
100%
100%
39%
46%
46%
43%
5,110 8,312
4,913 9,022
4,758 8,815
14,781 26,149
Sharing (%)
July
August
September
Total
40%
48%
45%
44%
61%
54%
54%
57%
100%
100%
100%
100%
15
Business Plan FY 2011
16
Business Plan FY 2010-11
ASSUMPTIONS
1
Net Electrical Output on the basis of last three years actual figures and new IPPs and
RPPs. The source wise energy is as follows :(Values in MkWh)
FY 2009-10
Actual
FY 2010-11
Projected
i.
WAPADA Hydel
27,612
29,486
ii.
GENCO’S
18,364
12,036
iii.
IPPs including SPP
37,207
34,854
iv.
NEW IPP
4,340
12,712
v.
RPP
75
3,050
87,589
92,138
TOTAL
2
Revenue calculated on the basis of three month actual ( July – Sept. 2010) and projected Oct- June
2011 on the basis of GOP notified tariff effective 01-10-2010
3
RFO Rs 44046 M/Ton
4
Gas Prices @ Rs. 394/MMBTU
5
US Dollar rate @ Rs. 86.5/$.
17
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
FY 2010-11 (Base Case Energy 92,138 MkWh)
1 Quantitative Data
NEO (MkWh)
92.138
Estimated Units Sales (MkWh)
73,369
Losses (%)
20.4%
2 Revenue/Tariff Required
Bln. Rs.
Rs./kWh
Power Purchase Price
584.7
7.97
Prior year adjustment
32.4
0.44
Distribution Margin
76.6
1.04
Total
693.7
9.45
Less Revenue through Tariff
528.4
7.20
Gap (Bln. Rs.)
(165.3)
(2.25)
% age
-31.2%
18
Business Plan FY 2010-11
Bln.Rs.
Gap (Bln. Rs.)
Rs./kW h
% age
(165.3)
2.25
31.2%
33.8
(0.46)
-6.4%
2- Impact of Reduction in Losses from 20.4% to 18.6% (supported by incentives)
11.7
(0.16)
-2.2%
3- Reduction in Distribution Margin.
14.3
(0.19)
-2.7%
4- Cover through Efficiency Measures( supported by incentives)
20.0
(0.27)
-3.8%
5- Specific/Additional allocation of 6200 MkWh to Industrial and commercial
consumers.( to meet their unmet gap of FY 2009-10)
13.8
(0.19)
-2.6%
Tariff Required after PEPCO measurement (w.e.f Dec 2010)
(71.7)
0.98
13.6%
3.9
(0.05)
-0.7%
0.9
(0.01)
-0.2%
(66.9)
0.91
10.1%
8- One previous slab benefit for domestic consumers
5.0
(0.07)
-0.9%
9- For Agricultural consumer,Proposed two slabs i.e. 1-1000 units and above 1000
units.The assessment is workedout as per existing notified tariff upto 1000 units and
4.1
(0.06)
-0.8%
(57.7)
0.79
Gap Recovery Plan (Bln. Rs.)
1- Inter-DISCOs tariff differential subsidy (as per budgeted for FY 2010-11)
6- Fixed Charges for industrial consumers on existing and 50% of the sanctioned load
or actual load which ever is higher
7- In tariff -C (Bulk Consumers), the determined tariff of IESCO to be notified for all
DisCos.
Tariff Required after revised notification by MOW&P
Tariff Required without additional Gas
8.7% 19
Net Revenue Gap after 2% Monthly Tariff increase
FY 2010-11
Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
Total
57.7
Revenue Gap
Revenue Increase (Bln. Rs.)
1- Oct. 2010
2- Nov. 2010
3- Dec. 2010
4- Jan. 2011
5- Feb. 2011
6- Mar. 2011
7- Apr. 2011
8- May. 2011
9- Jun. 2011
Total
Net Revenue Gap (Bln. Rs.)
-
-
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.8
1.4
1.9
2.7
3.6
4.9
7.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
8.7
6.2
5.5
4.9
4.3
3.7
3.0
2.2
1.2
31.0
26.7
Proposed Increases : 2% Increase in each month from Nov. 2010 to Jun 2011.
20
Net Revenue Gap after 3% Monthly Tariff increase
FY 2010-11
Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
Total
57.7
Revenue Gap
Revenue Increase (Bln. Rs.)
1- Oct. 2010
2- Nov. 2010
3- Dec. 2010
4- Jan. 2011
5- Feb. 2011
6- Mar. 2011
7- Apr. 2011
8- May. 2011
9- Jun. 2011
Total
Net Revenue Gap (Bln. Rs.)
-
-
1.2
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.2
2.1
2.9
4.2
5.5
7.5
10.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
13.4
9.2
8.3
7.5
6.7
5.8
4.7
3.5
1.9
47.6
10.1
Proposed Increases : 3% Increase in each month from Nov. 2010 to Jun 2011.
21
Issues
 Unified Tariff.
 Determined tariff to be notified by NEPRA.
 Opening of LC by DISCOs for power purchase.
 Payment arrears from GoP, KESC and Provincial Governments
 Additional Gas allocation to Power Sector
 Immediate GST Refund by FBR (Difference of input of output) of Rs. 27 billion)
 Payment of GST on billing basis instead of Collection basis.
 Governance issues of HESCO, PESCO and QESCO
 Theft and non payment culture
 Continued non payment by KESC
 Unfavorable consumer mix
 Unfavorable Generation mix
22
23
Distribution losses FY 2009-10
Discos
Actual
Losses
Accepted by
NEPRA
Incr/(Dec.)
%age
LESCO
13.8%
12.0%
1.8%
GEPCO
11.0%
10.5%
0.5%
FESCO
10.8%
11.0%
-0.2%
IESCO
9.8%
10.0%
-0.2%
MEPCO
19.0%
15.0%
4.0%
PESCO
37.0%
28.0%
9.0%
TESCO
23.9%
28.0%
-4.1%
HESCO
34.8%
28.0%
6.8%
QESCO
20.7%
18.0%
2.7%
Total
19.6%
16.5%
3.1%
DISCOs Determined and Notified Tariff
Determined
Tariff
(Rs./kwh)
Notified
Tariff
Rs./kwh)
10.20
7.79
2.42
GEPCO
9.73
7.15
2.58
FESCO
10.10
7.31
2.79
IESCO
9.12
8.00
1.12
MEPCO
9.66
6.60
3.06
HESCO
10.62
7.80
2.82
QESCO
9.58
6.05
3.53
PESCO
12.26
7.03
5.23
Avg
10.15
7.19
2.96
DISCOs
LESCO
Difference
Rs./kWh)
Monthly Estimated Revenue & Cost FY 2010-11
Month
Revenue
Jul-10
50.2
50.7
47.3
43.9
41.7
38.5
34.7
35.9
38.4
43.0
50.2
53.8
528.4
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Total
Hydel
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.7
30.1
GENCOs
10.3
9.5
9.2
5.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.5
5.6
4.9
5.4
7.5
79.0
Cost
NTDC
IPPs
Charge
38.3
30.5
31.9
34.7
35.4
39.1
40.8
35.3
37.4
43.7
45.0
44.0
456.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
19.5
DM
Total
7.0
6.9
6.9
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.1
5.4
5.8
6.3
7.5
7.3
76.6
60.2
51.6
52.5
50.0
50.2
54.2
55.5
49.8
52.8
59.0
62.3
63.2
661.3
Uncovered cost for FY 2009-10 due to delay in tariff increase by GOP
Total Gap
Gap
(10.0)
(0.9)
(5.2)
(6.1)
(8.5)
(15.7)
(20.7)
(13.9)
(14.4)
(15.9)
(12.1)
(9.4)
(132.9)
32.4
(165.3)
Receivable from GOP, KESC and Provincial Govts
S r.
No.
De sc ription
Outs tanding
Bln. Rs .
1 K E S C P ayable (arrears ) Upto 30-09-2010
KESC arrears may be paid to PEPCO by MOF out of their tariff differential subsidy claim
50.2
2 Minis try of F inanc e
Agriculture Subsidy (upto FY 2009-10)
G.S.T Refund (upto FY 2009-10)
Tube Wells Subsidy 40% (GoP Share) in Balochistan (upto FY 2009-10)
P.M Subsidy (Agriculture) (upto FY 2009-10)
Tariff Differential Subsidy Arrears (upto FY 2009-10)
S ub total
0.9
6.2
2.8
0.3
135.2
145.4
3 Amount to be paid by P rov inc ial G ov ernments (Upto 30-09-2010)
P unjab
S indh
K hyber P akhtoonkhwa
B alochis tan
S ub total
11.4
30.9
1.5
13.4
57.1
4 H eld up billing amount due to G oK P c as e in P H C
To be paid up upfront by the G oP /MoF agains t the pending old NHP interes t c laims of G oK P
T otal = (1+2+3+4)
15.0
267.7
27
Fuel Prices and US $ Statement
Year
Nov-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Nov-10
Increase
US $/Pak
RFO
Gas
Rs.
(Rs./M.Ton) (Rs./MMBTU)
60
60
60
60
61
67
81
85
86
43%
10,684
12,352
18,409
21,438
24,392
48,745
36,744
42,092
45,632
327%
168
177
202
257
232
330
334
394
394
135%
28
Impact of Fuel Price Adjustment
Description
Units Sold (Mkwh)
Life Line (Mkwh)
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
6,477
6,391
6,235
19,104
178
175
153
505
Agri. (Mkwh)
Applicable Units
Sold (Mkwh)
Incr./(Decr.)
Rs/kwh
Impact Mln. Rs.
Total
6,299
6,217
6,083
18,598
0.26
(0.33)
(0.36)
(0.14)
1,638
(2,052)
(2,190)
(2,604)
29