Transcript Slide 1

Impact of Climate Change on Fresh
Water Resources of Pakistan
Ghazanfar Ali
Global Change Impact Studies Center, Islamabad
IUCN Climate Change Seminar, Muzaffarabad, Azad Jammu & Kashmir
18 March 2008
1
Water Resources of Pakistan

Some Characteristics of Pakistan‘s
Water Resources

Climate Change Concerns

Implications and Adaptation
2
The Indus River System, Pakistan
3
Distribution of Water in Main Rivers of Pakistan
% Seasonal
Distribution
Dominant Source in
Summer
Dominant
Source in
Winter
14
Snow/Glacial melt
Winter
Rainfall +
Baseflow
17
Snow/Glacial melt +
Monsoon
Winter
Rainfall +
Baseflow
22
Mainly Snow melt +
Monsoon
Winter
Rainfall +
Baseflow
Snow/Glacial melt
Winter
Rainfall +
Baseflow
% of IRS
Inflows Summer
Winter
(Apr-Sep)(Oct-Mar)
Indus
Chenab
Jhelum
44
19
16
Kabul
16
Others
5
86
83
78
82
18
4
Some Concerns of Pakistan‘s Water Resources

Decreasing Per Capita Water Availability

Large Intra-annual Variability in Annual River Flows

Inadequate Storage Capacity and Capacity Loss with
Time

Inadequate Discharge to Sea for Preventing Sea
Water Intrusion and Other Related Issues
5
Some Characteristic of Pakistan‘s Water Resources


Water Availability Per Capita (m3)
2003
2007
2020
(projected)
Availability
5650
1200
1100
855
Annual
In Kharif
( Apr-Sep)
In Rabi
( Oct-Mar)
(76-77 to 2002-03)
141 MAF
82%
18%
Maximum (in 1991-92)
172 MAF
Minimum

1951
IRS Inflows (1976-77 to 2002-03)
Average

Year
(in 2001-02)
97 MAF
Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)
 Original
: 18.4 MAF
(≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)
 Year 2001
: 14.1 MAF
(≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
 Projected 2010
: 12.4 MAF
(≈ 9 % of Average Annual Flows)
Downstream Kotri Annual Discharges (1976-77 to 2002-03)
 Average
: 35 MAF
 Maximum (in 1994): 92 MAF
(IRS Inflows in 1994: 166 MAF)
 Minimum (in 2000): 0.7 MAF
(IRS Inflows in 2000: 103 MAF) 6
Source of data: WAPDA
Climate Change
“the greatest challenge facing the
world at the beginning of the century”
World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland 2000
7
Major Climate Change related Concerns for
Water Resources of Pakistan

Melting of HKH glaciers and its Implications for:
 Average Annual River Flows
 Pattern of Seasonal Flows
 Inter Annual Variability of Flows


Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme
Precipitation Events and its Implication for
Floods and Droughts
Sea-level Rise and its Implications
Warmest 12 years:
2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003,
2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995,
2000, 1999
Rate of Change (oC per decade)
1850 –
2005
─────────────
0.045
1905 –
2005
─────────────
0.074
1955 –
2005
─────────────
0.128
Average Global Temperature OC
1999
─────────────
14.38
2000
1995
..
.
─────────────
─────────────
14.40
14.48
1998
2007
2005
─────────────
─────────────
─────────────
14.57
14.60
14.63
Climate Change and Water
10
Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Northern Pakistan
China
Afghanistan
Pakistan
India
11
De-glaciations World Wide

According to Haeberli and Hoelzle (2001) of the
World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), the
measurements taken over the last century “clearly
reveal a general shrinkage of mountain glaciers on
a global scale”

It was forecast by IPCC in its Second Assessment
Report (1996) that up to a quarter of global
mountain glacier mass could disappear by 2050
and up to half could be lost by 2100.
12
Snow & Glacier Melt Contribution



Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km area which
is 13% of mountain regions of the Upper Indus Basin
(UIB)
Glacial and snow melt water makes more than 80%
contribution to the flows of UIB rivers
“Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any
other part of the world and, if the present rate
continues, the likelihood of their disappearing by the
year 2035 is very high”.
A conclusion reached by the 1999 report of the Working Group of
Himalayan Glaciology (WGHG) of the International Commission for Snow and
Ice (ICSI).
13
Projected Changes in Indus River Flows due to
Melting of HKH Glaciers
(Reported by Some Recent Studies)

Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase
flooding within next two to three decades. This will be
followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
(IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policy Makers of WG-II
released on April 6th, 2007)

Western Himalayan glacier will retreat for the next 50 years
causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier
reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by
up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
(“Pakistan's Water Economy: Running Dry”, a World Bank Report, 2006)

As a result of glacier melting, Upper Indus will show initial
increase between +14% and +90% in mean flows over the
first few decades of the next 100 years, to be followed by
flows decreasing between -30% and -90% of the baseline
by the end of this century.
(Technical Report: Snow and Glaciers Aspects of Water Resources
Management in the Himalayas, Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford,
UK, April 2004).
14
Recent Conflicting Reports about Recession of
Himalayan Glaciers

In 2005, Hewitt reported widespread evidence of
glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central
Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of
mountain glaciers.
(K.Hewitt in Mountain Research and Development Vol. 25, No.4, Nov 2005)

Based on surveys between 1997 and 2002, he
reported that some of the large Karakoram glaciers 40 to 70 km in length - exhibited 5 to 15 m of
thickening over substantial ablation zone areas,
locally more than 20 m.

These conflicting findings make the impact of
climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus
River flows very uncertain.
15
Climate Change Science Studies
in Pakistan

Climate Change research remained essentially neglected in
Pakistan until recently;

2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort in this
direction proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to
the Prime Minister;

May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc &
Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.

January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate
Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.

Dec., 2006: GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics
as an autonomous organization.
GCISC Objectives
The main objectives of the Centre are:

to keep a track of the current and likely future
trends of Climate Change;

to develop a national capacity for Climate Change
research;

to analyse and evaluate the impacts of Climate
Change on key sectors e.g. Food and Water
security;

to raise public awareness of Climate Change
related issues.
Exploring the CC Impacts


Trends of Temperature and Precipitation
Monitoring of glaciers in the Hindu Kush – Karakoram –
Himalaya (HKH) region

Trends of flow in the rivers of the Indus Basin

Projection of flows in the river of the Indus Basin in the
light of CC scenarios

Impact of temperature increase and glacier retreat on
Indus River flows
18
Temperature and Precipitation Trends
Mean Temperature (°C) Trend 1901-2000 for Pakistan
(CRU data)
21.4
y = 0.006x + 8.3804
Increase = 0.6°C
Significant at 99% level
20.8
20.2
19.6
19
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
20
Annual Precipitation (mm) Trend 1901-2000 for Pakistan
(CRU data)
500
y = 0.633x - 951.37
Increase = 63 mm or (+ 25%)
Significant at 99% level
400
300
200
100
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
21
UIB Map showing High Elevation Met Stations
Khunjerab DCP Station (Elevation 4730 m.a.s.l)
Khunjrab - Winter (DJF)
Khunjrab - Fall (SON)
t value for Max: 1.64
t value for Min: 2.84
0
Linear (min)
Min
-15
-20
Linear (Max)
2005
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
Linear (Min)
2003
Linear (Max)
Min
2001
Min
1999
-5
Max
1997
Max
15
10
5
0
-5
1995
0
Temprature C
5
1995
Temperature C
2005
1995
t value for Max: -1.52
t value for Min: -0.47
t value for Max: 1.87
t value for Min: -0.51
-15
Linear (Min)
Khunjrab - Summer (JJA)
Khunjrab - Spring (MAM)
-10
2003
-25
2001
Linear (Max)
-10
1999
min
Max
-5
1997
Max
Temperature C
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
t value for Max: 0.19
t value for Min: 0.35
Linear
(Max)
Ziarat DCP Station (Elevation 3669 m.a.s.l)
Ziarat - Fall (SON)
Ziarat - Winter (DJF)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
t value for max: 2.28
t value for min: 2.68
max
min
Linear (max)
0
min
-10
Linear (max)
-15
Linear (min)
-20
Ziarat - Summer (JJA)
t value for max: 1.68
t value for min: 1.11
t value for max: -0.41
t value for min: -0.18
2005
2003
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
Linear (min)
2001
-5
min
1999
Linear (max)
max
1997
min
0
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
max
5
Temprature C
Ziarat - Spring (MAM)
10
1995
Temprature C
max
-5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Linear (min)
Temprature C
5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
t value for max: 0.06
t value for min: 1.22
Linear
(max)
Hushey DCP Station (Elevation 2995 m.a.s.l)
Hushey Mean Temperature - Fall
(SON)
Hushey Mean Temperature - Winter
(DJF)
t value for Max: 1.23,
t value for Min: 2.99
Winter min
Summer max
10
5
2005
2003
2001
0
1999
Linear
(Spring min)
Summer min
15
1997
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
Linear
(Spring max)
20
1995
Spring min
Temprature C
25
Spring max
2005
t value for Max: -0.35
t value for Min: -0.07
t value for Max: 1.26,
t value for Min: 1.61
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Linear (Winter
min)
Hushey Mean Temperature Summer(JJA)
Hushey Mean Temperature - Spring
(MAM)
Temprature C
2003
Linear (Winter
max)
2001
Linear (Fall
min)
Winter max
1995
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
Linear (Fall
max)
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1999
Fall min
Temprature C
Fall max
1997
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1995
Temprature C
t value for Max: -0.06
t value for Min: 0.14
Linear
(Summer
max)
Yasin DCP Station (Elevation 3150 m.a.s.l)
Yasin - Fall (SON)
Yasin - Winter (DJF)
max
min
Linear (max)
Linear (min)
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
max
min
Linear (max)
Linear (min)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
t value for max: 0.69
t value for min: 2.06
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
t value for max: -0.95
t value for min: 0.07
Yasin - Summer(JJA)
t value for max: -0.30
t value for min: -0.20
Yasin - Spring (MAM)
max
25
min
Linear (max)
Linear (min)
min
20
Linear
(max)
15
10
5
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
max
Temprature C
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
t value for max: 1.12
t value for min: 1.20
Naltar DCP Station (Elevation 2810 m.a.s.l)
Naltar - Winter (DJF)
Naltar - Fall (SON)
t vlaue for max 0.71
t value for min: 2.64
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4
2
min
Linear (max)
Linear (min)
0
Temprature C
max
max
-4
min
-6
Linear (max)
-8
Linear (min)
-10
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2005
2003
2001
1997
1999
Naltar - Spring (MAM)
Naltar - Summer (JJA)
t value for max: 0.86
t value for min: 1.39
t value for max: -0.82
t value for min: -0.04
14
25
10
max
8
min
6
Linear (max)
4
Linear (min)
2
Temprature C
12
20
max
15
min
10
Linear (max)
5
Linear (min)
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
0
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
-2
-12
1995
Temprature C
t value for max: -0.75
t value for min: 1.70
Northern and Southern Parts of Pakistan
(b)
(a)
(b)
Grids covering geographical areas of:
a) Northern (FHN) and
b) Southern (FHS) parts of Pakistan
28
Projected Temperature Changes, ∆T (°C) by Various GCMs
Northern Pakistan
A2
A1B
Region:FHN
2020s
2050s
2080s
2020s
2050s
2080s
Annual
1.42 ±
0.10
2.72 ±
0.16
4.67 ±
0.23
1.55 ±
0.10
2.95 ±
0.15
4.12 ±
0.23
Summer
1.31 ±
0.12
2.62 ±
0.20
4.56 ±
0.28
1.45 ±
0.12
2.91 ±
0.18
4.07 ±
0.26
Winter
1.52 ±
0.11
2.82 ±
0.19
4.72 ±
0.24
1.67 ±
0.12
3.02 ±
0.17
4.11 ±
0.24
Southern Pakistan
A1B
A2
Region: FHS
2020s
2050s
2080s
2020s
2050s
2080s
Annual
1.25 ±
0.08
2.44 ±
0.13
4.22 ±
0.18
1.40 ±
0.09
2.64 ±
0.13
3.73 ±
0.18
Summer
1.10 ±
0.13
2.24 ±
0.20
3.90 ±
0.26
1.23 ±
0.12
2.43 ±
0.17
3.50 ±
0.22
Winter
1.38 ±
0.09
2.57 ±
0.13
4.33 ±
0.18
1.57 ±
0.10
2.81 ±
0.14
3.81 ±
0.19
29
Projected Changes in Average Temperature of
Northern and Southern Pakistan
(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario)
6
northern
pakistan
Northernpp
Pakistan
southern Pakistan
pp pakistan
Southern
Temperature Change (°C)
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990s
2020s
2050s
Period
2080s
30
Projected Precipitation Changes, ∆P (%) by Various GCMs
Northern Pakistan
A1B
A2
Region: FHN
2020s
2050s
2080s
2020s
2050s
2080s
Annual
2.22 ±
2.29
3.61 ±
3.21
1.13 ±
3.95
0.74±1.48
1.78±2.18
0.73±3.08
Summer
5.52 ±
3.69
7.63 ±
6.52
1.08 ±
8.35
1.33 ±
3.03
1.81 ±
4.74
1.98 ±
5.74
Winter
-0.66 ±
2.33
0.71 ±
3.21
-2.24 ±
4.10
-2.60 ±
1.87
-4.72 ±
2.57
-4.10 ±
3.10
Southern Pakistan
A2
A1B
Region: FHS
2020s
2050s
2080s
2020s
2050s
2080s
Annual
3.05 ±
5.12
6.40 ±
7.48
4.28 ±
9.46
-3.20
±4.31
-0.32
±5.53
-0.89
±7.91
Summer
12.46 ±
9.77
42.19 ±
27.00
51.07 ±
39.78
11.21 ±
10.99
24.14 ±
18.06
37.57 ±
34.00
Winter
-7.53 ±
6.06
-12.90 ±
6.57
-20.51 ±
9.05
-16.13 ±
4.72
-9.92 ±
7.25
-15.10 ±
7.61
31
Projected Changes in Averarge Precipitation of
Northern and Southern Pakistan
(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario
20
northern
pakistan
Northernpp
Pakistan
southern
pakistan
Southernpp
Pakistan
Precipitation Change (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1990
2020
2050
2080
32
Period
Temporal Analysis of HKH Glacier
Comparative 3D View of Main Biafo Glacier with
Overlaid Digitized Boundary of the Glacier
34
1992
2000
Observed Temporal Changes in Biafo Glacier,
Central Karakoram, Northern Pakistan
Biafo
Glacier
Length
(km)
Area
(km²)
1992
A
2000
B
Change
B-A
Remarks
60.212
±0.030
60.020
±0.030
-0.192
±0.043
Significan
t
Decrease
(99%
Certainty)
131.642 ±
1.806
133.159 ±
1.801
1.517
±2.551
No
Significan
t Change
Width
(km)
calculated 2.186
±0.030
as Area/
Length
2.219
±0.030
0.033 ±
0.043
No
Significan
t Change
Assuming that there are no significant measurement errors over and above
those arising from the resolution of the satellite imagery, the following
results were obtained:
35
Pictorial View of the Digitized Snouts of Studied Glaciers of
the Hunza River Basin, Northern Pakistan
Landsat image;Resolution 30m
36
Trends of River Flows in the Upper Indus Basin
Trend in Annual inflows of Indus at Kalabagh
y = 0.0395x + 88.285
t : (0.677)
(32.5)
Indus at Kalabagh Annual Inflows (1922-2001)
Annual Inflows (MAF)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
1950
1946
1942
1938
1934
1930
1926
1922
Years
Change in Flows per decade : (0.44 ± 0.65)%
≈ (0.395 ± 0.584) MAF
Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
38
Trend in Annual inflows of Indus at Tarbela
Annual Inflows (MAF)
Indus at Tarbela Annual Inflows (1961-2004)
y = -0.0673x + 62.245
t : (-0.72) (26.02)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
Years
Change in Flows per decade : (-1.10 ± 1.54)%
≈ (-0.673 ± 0.935) MAF
Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
39
Trend in Annual inflows of Jhelum at Mangla
y = -0.0113x + 23.225
t : (-0.54) (23.19)
Jhelum at Mangla Annual Inflows (1922-2004)
Annual Inflows (MAF)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
1950
1946
1942
1938
1934
1930
1926
1922
Years
Change in Flows per decade : (-0.50 ± 0.92)%
≈ (-0.113 ± 0.209) M AF
Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
40
Trend in Annual inflows of Chenab at Marala
y = 0.0375x + 24.134
t : (2.0)
(26.74)
Chenab at Marala Annual Inflows (1922-2004)
40
Annual Inflows (MAF)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
1966
1962
1958
1954
1950
1946
1942
1938
1934
1930
1926
1922
Years
Change in Flows per decade : (1.50 ± 0.73)%
≈ (0.375 ± 0.188) MAF
Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
41
Trend in Annual inflows of Kabul at Nowshera
y = -0.1176x + 24.132
(15.5)
t : (-1.96)
Kabul at Nowshera Annual Inflows (1961-2004)
40
Annual Inflows (MAF)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
Years
Change in Flows per decade : (-5.50 ± 2.80)%
≈ (-1.176 ± 0.60) M AF
Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)
42
Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila Simulated by UBC Watershed Model
10000
9000
Observrd flow
Simulated flow
7000
6000
Snow melt runoff
5000
Glacial contribution
4000
3000
2000
1000
9/1/2001
8/1/2001
7/1/2001
6/1/2001
5/1/2001
4/1/2001
3/1/2001
2/1/2001
1/1/2001
12/1/2000
11/1/2000
0
10/1/2000
Discharge (cumecs)
8000
Date (mm/dd/yyyy)
Calibration (1999-2004)
Validation (1995-1999)
R2
0.87
0.87
Eff.
0.86
0.87
% Vol. Diff.
0.32
-5.16
43
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on UIB Flows
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
 Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
Discharge (Cumecs)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Main Results:
Base Runoff
CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt
CCS Glacier melt
1. Annual flows reduced by 15%
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
0
44
Measures for Water Security

Since an understanding of the response of Karakoram glaciers to climate
change is very crucial for the assessment of Indus River flows, GCISC will
work in collaboration with GLIMS, NASA and ICIMOD to establish the nature
of temporal changes these glaciers have gone through during the last 2-3
decades

At the same time GCISC will enhance its capacity to make use of UBC,
DHSVM and other watershed models for making quantitative assessment of
the changes in the pattern and amount of river flows resulting from glacier
melting and changes in the climatic parameters.

Two important climate change related impacts are: (1) Increase in frequency
and intensity of extreme precipitation events such as flood and droughts and
(2) rise in sea level. Both these impacts call for increased reservoir capacity
in order to provide regulated supplies of water for irrigation as well as for
preventing increasing sea water intrusion.

In case the Karakoram glaciers are found to be receding, additional
increased water reservoir capacity will be required in order to compensate
45
for the loss of regulation by natural reservoirs (glaciers).
Concluding Remarks




Timely Response
Study of Climate Change Impacts on
Regional Basis
Role of an Economist
Effective Procedures to Dissemination of
Research Results to Policy makers and
Stake holders.
46
Thank you
47
Searching Climate change Impact on Indus River Flows
Khunjrab - Winter (DJF)
Khunjrab - Fall (SON)
t value for Max: 1.64
t value for Min: 2.84
Temperature C
0
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Max
min
Linear (Max)
Linear (min)
Max
-5
-10
Min
-15
-20
Linear (Max)
2005
2003
2001
1999
1995
1997
-25
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Temprature C
t value for Max: 0.19
t value for Min: 0.35
Linear (Min)
Khunjrab - Spring (MAM)
Khunjrab - Summer (JJA)
t value for Max: -1.52
t value for Min: -0.47
Linear (Min)
2005
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
-15
Min
2003
Linear (Max)
2001
Min
-10
Max
1999
-5
15
10
5
0
-5
1997
Max
1995
0
Temprature C
5
1995
Temperature C
t value for Max: 1.87
t value for Min: -0.51
Linear
(Max)
Ziarat - Fall (SON)
Ziarat - Winter (DJF)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
t value for max: 2.28
t value for min: 2.68
max
min
Linear (max)
0
max
-5
min
-10
Linear (max)
-15
Linear (min)
-20
Ziarat - Summer (JJA)
Ziarat - Spring (MAM)
t value for max: -0.41
t value for min: -0.18
-5
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
Linear (min)
2005
Linear (max)
2003
0
min
2001
min
max
1999
max
5
25
20
15
10
5
0
1997
10
Temprature C
t value for max: 1.68
t value for min: 1.11
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Linear (min)
Temprature C
5
Temprature C
Temprature C
t value for max: 0.06
t value for min: 1.22
Linear
(max)
Hushey Mean Temperature Summer(JJA)
Hushey Mean Temperature - Spring
(MAM)
t value for Max: -0.35
t value for Min: -0.07
2005
2003
Linear
(Spring max)
2001
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
0
Linear
(Summer
max)
1995
5
Spring min
1999
10
Spring max
1997
Summer min
15
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Linear
(Spring min)
Hushey Mean Temperature - Fall
(SON)
Hushey Mean Temperature Winter (DJF)
t value for Max: -0.06
t value for Min: 0.14
t value for Max: 1.23,
t value for Min: 2.99
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
Winter min
-10
2005
-15
2003
Linear (Fall
min)
-5
2001
Linear (Fall
max)
Winter max
0
1999
Fall min
5
1997
Fall max
1995
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Temprature C
Temprature C
20
Temprature C
Summer max
25
Temprature C
t value for Max: 1.26,
t value for Min: 1.61
Linear
(Winter max)
Climate Change – A Reality

There is now a consensus among the scientific community that Global
Warming has occurred due to human induced anthropogenic activities
(mainly due to burning of fossil fuel).

The Global Warming is causing :


Accelerated Rate of Snow and Glacier Melt

Sea level Rise

Intense Rain Storms

Floods and Droughts

Heat and Cold Waves

Loss of Biodiversity
The increased intensity & frequency of extreme climate events linked to
global warming will cause large scale disasters.
52