Transcript Document

Indicators of Europe’s
Changing Climate
Markus Erhard
(IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen,
Germany)
Thomas Voigt
(UBA, Berlin, Germany)
Jelle van Minnen (RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands)
Marc Zebisch
(PIK, Potsdam, Germany)
David Viner
(CRU, Norwich, U.K.)
SICCIA Conference, Grainau, 28.06.2004
Structure
 Climate change in Europe
-> state
 The indicator concept of the European
Environment Agency
-> tasks and objectives
 Climate change impacts in Europe
-> examples
 Conclusions
-> further needs
Europe’s Climate is Anormal
 European temperatures are 5-10 °C higher than normal
Rahmstorf & Ganopolski, Climatic Change, 1999. 43: p. 353-367
Air Temperature
past trends
• Global temperature: + 0.7 0.2 °C over past 100 years
• Europe: mean annual +0.95 °C
• Summer +0.7°C ; Winter +1.1°C
compared to 1961-1990 avg. (°C)
Temperature deviation,
1.5
1
Annual
Summer
0.5
Winter
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Data-sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, KMNI
future projection
• Europe: + 2.0–6.3°C
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
• Global projection (1990–2100): + 1.4–5.8 °C
European annual and
seasonal mean
temperature deviations,
1850-2002
Precipitation
past trends
• Heterogeneous trends (1900–2000):
- northern Europe 10-40 % wetter
- southern Europe up to 20 % drier
Precipitation trend
(1900–2000):
- 1-2% increase per decade for northern Europe
- up to 1 % per decade decrease in southern Europe
Data-sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, NOAA, KMNI
future projection
• Projection:
Temperature Extremes
past trends
1976–1999:
• Number of cold and frost days decreased
• Number of summer days increased
Summer days (Tmax >= 25 °C)
Changes in 1976–1999
Data-sources: ECA, IPCC, ACACIA, KMNI
future projection
Projections:
• Cold winters disappear almost entirely by 2080
• Hot summers much more frequent
Precipitation Extremes
past trends
1976–1999:
• Southern Europe: decrease
• Mid and northern Europe: increase
Very heavy precipitation days (p >= 20mm)
Changes in 1976–1999
Data-source: ECA, IPCC, ACACIA, KMNI
future projection
Projections:
• Likely more frequent droughts and intense precipitation events
Why Indicators?
 To describe what happens in our environment
summarizing state, impacts, past and future trends,
data availability, uncertainties and further needs
 To raise public awareness
explaining relevance
 To support (policy) decision making
showing vulnerability and need for adaptation
DPSIR Assessment Framework of the EEA
Technical Report No 25: http://www.eea.eu.int/
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
exposure (state)
sensitivity
impact
vulnerability
adaptation,
adaptive capacity
Categories of Indicators
STATE
 Atmosphere and climate (4)
IMPACTS
 Glaciers, snow and ice (3)
 Marine systems (4)
 Terrestrial ecosystems + biodiversity(5)
 Water (1)
 Agriculture (1)
 Economy (1)
 Human health (3)
Glaciers
• Very likely that glacier retreat will continue
Data-sources: WGMS, NSDIC, BADW
future projection
Vernagtferner; Bavarian Academy of Science , 2003
past trends
• Retreat in eight out of the nine glacial European regions
• Loss of one third of area and one-half of mass from 1850-1980 in the
Alps
• Since 1980 – 2000 about 20-30 % loss of the remaining ice (additional
-10% in last summer)
Marine Species Composition
100%
80%
C. finmarchicus
60%
40%
C. helgolandicus
20%
0%
• Further northward shift
Data-sources: SAHFOS (CPR)
future projection
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Percentage of C. helgolandicus
past trends
• Northward shift of zooplankton species by up to 1 000 km and major
reorganisation of plankton ecosystems over last 40 years
• Increase of presence and number of sub-tropical species in the
North Sea over the last decade
Plant Species Composition
past trends
• Population decreases and disappearance of certain plant species
• Plant species diversity has increased in north-western Europe
Netherlands
2-4 (cold)
5
6
1-3 (cold)
4
5
7-9 (warm)
-40
-20
Norway
X (indifferent)
Ellenberg values
Ellenberg values
X (indifferent)
6-8 (warm)
0
20
change (%)
40
60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
change (%)
Change in species composition (1975–1984 vs. 1985–1999)
Data-sources: National data sets, IMAGE2/EuroMove, ATEAM, IPCC
future projection
• further northward movement of many plant species
• Non-climate related factors will limit the migration and
adaptation capabilities
Terrestrial Carbon Uptake (1)
past trends
• 1990–1998 the European terrestrial biosphere was a net sink for carbon
• Additional potential storage capacity for the EU is relatively small
sources
sinks
Data-sources: Janssen et al. 2004, CarboEurope-IP, ATEAM, IPCC
future projection
• Projected increase in temperature is likely to reduce this potential
Terrestrial Carbon Uptake (2)
• NBE anomaly 1971-2000/2071-2100 (climate, CO2 and landuse change)
Data-sources:
Zaehle et al. 2004, AT
unpublished
Crop Yield Summer 2003
Data-sources: FAO, EUROSTAT, MARS, IPCC, national services
future projection
• Benefit from increasing CO2 concentrations and rising temperatures
• Southern Europe: risk of more water stress
• More frequent bad harvests
past trends
• Yields per hectare have increased in the last 40 years (tech. progress)
River Discharge
past trends
• River discharge has changed over the last decades across Europe
increase
+50%
+25%
+10%
small changes
-10%
-25%
-50%
decrease
Data-sources: Center for Environmental Systems Research, national institutions
future projection
• Projected changes in precipitation and temperature will mean further
changes in river discharge
• Strong decline in southern and south-eastern Europe
• Increase in almost all parts of northern and north-eastern Europe
Economic Losses
past trends
• 64% of all catastrophic events and 79 % of economic losses
since 1980 are attributable to weather and climate extremes
• Doubling of annual disastrous weather climate related events
over 1990s
• Economic losses increased from decadal average less than 5 in the
1980s to about more than 11 billion US$ in 1990s)
35
1980 - 2003
30
Economic losses
Section if insured losses
25
20
15
10
5
Data-sources: Munich-Re, Swiss-Re, EMDAT (CRED)
2002
2003
2001
2000
1998
1999
1997
1996
1995
1994
1992
1993
1991
1990
1989
1988
1986
1987
1985
1983
1984
1982
1981
1980
• Increasing likelihood of extreme events  higher losses
future projection
0
Heat Waves
250
past trends
• More than 20,000 excess deaths in Western and Southern Europe
in the summer of 2003
45,0
Death in Hospitals
200
40,0
Death rep. by firebrigades
Daily Minimum
35,0
150
30,0
100
Temperature
Number of death
Daily Maximum
25,0
50
20,0
18.08.
17.08.
16.08.
15.08.
14.08.
13.08.
12.08.
11.08.
10.08.
09.08.
08.08.
07.08.
06.08.
05.08.
04.08.
03.08.
02.08.
01.08.
31.07.
30.07.
29.07.
28.07.
27.07.
(Daily number of excess death during the heatwave in summer 2003 in Paris)
• The number of excess deaths due to heat is projected to increase
in the future
Data-sources: IVS, WHO, …
future projection
26.07.
15,0
25.07.
0
Tick Borne Diseases
Data-sources: Univ. of Stockholm, SZU
future projection
• Projections uncertain
past trends
• Tick-borne encephalitis cases increased between 1980 and 1995
in the Baltic region and central Europe
• Unclear how many of 85 000 cases of Lyme borreliosis annually in
Europe due to the temperature increase
Conclusions
All indicators show a clear trend,
indicating that impacts of climate change
are already apparent in Europe.
There are both negative and positive
impacts on environment and society
within Europe.
More severe consequences are expected
in future.
The picture is still very fragmentary due
to lacks in data, knowledge and
attribution of processes to climate change.
Thank you for attention
EEA website:
http://www.eea.eu.int/
ETC/ACC website: http://air-climate.eionet.eu.int/
E-mail: [email protected]
Wake me up
the day after
tomorrow!
Climate Change is Anormal
Variations in temperature in the last 1000 Years (Northern
Hemisphere) and projection for the next 100 years
Temperature
10
7
stable period during
the last 8000 years
5
0
-5
-10
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Years before present
CO2 concentration, ppm
CO2
400
CO2 increase from
pre-industrial level
350
300
250
200
150
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
departures in temperatures (°C) from the 1961 to 1990
average
departures in temperatures (°C)
from the 1961 to 1990 average
Climate change over the last 400'000 years
6
5
4
3
Reconstructed
temperature. Data from
tree rings, corals and ice
cores (blue), smoothed
data (black) and error
range (grey).
Projected global mean
temperature, 2000-2100,
calculated according to
differnt IPCC scenarios
(dotted lines) and total range
of results (grey)
Recorded
data from
thermometers
(red).
2
1
0
-1
-2
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Years
Years before present
Petit et al., 1999
Mann et al., 1999 (last 1000 years); IPCC, 2001a (21st century
projections)
Selection of Indicators
 Transparency and relevance
 Spatial representation (regional, European)
 Data availability (temporal, spatial)
 Sensitivity / attribution to climate change
 Measurability and potential inclusion in
integrated assessment tools
The Making of an Indicator
 Literature research
 Questionnaire
 Expert meetings
 “Harvesting” scientific studies and (EU-) research
projects
 Data (re-)analyses
 “Stream-lining“ results from existing studies
 Standardization (OECD and EEA criteria)
(EEA Indicator Fact Sheet Model http://reports.eea.eu.int/)
Snow Cover
past trends
• Northern Hemisphere's snow cover extent has decreased by 10 %
since 1966.
• Snow cover period shortened by an average rate of 8.8 days per
decade between 1971 and 1994.
• Snow cover extent is projected to decrease further during the
21st Century
Data-sources: IPCC, NSIDC, SLF, NVE, National Weather Services,...
future projection
Anomalies of
monthly snow
cover extend over
the Northern
Hemisphere
(1966–2000)
Arctic Sea Ice
past trends
• Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by more than 7 % from 1978 to
2003 (particularly during summer)
• Ice thickness has decreased by 40 % on average over the period
1960’s-1990’s with large regional variability
2
1.5
1
Anomaly
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
2003
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
-2
• Projections show a predominantly ice free Arctic Ocean in summer
by 2100
Data-sources: IPCC, NSDIC, NVE, AWI,AARI… (Cryo-sat, Ice-sat)
future projection
Year
Sea Level Rise
Data-sources: Liebsch et al. 2002
future projection
• Projected rate of SLR in the 21st century is 2.2 to 4.4 times higher
• Sea level is projected to continue to rise for centuries
past trends
• Sea levels around Europe increased by between 0.8 mm/yr
(Brest and Newlyn) and 3.0 mm/year (Narvik)
Sea Surface Temperature
Data-sources: ICES, NASA, NOAA,…
future projection
• Oceans will warm less than the land, by 1.1 °C to 4.6°
from 1990 -2100
past trends
• Global average sea surface temperature has increased
by 0.6 ± 0.1 °C since late nineteenth century
• No European sea shows a significant cooling
• Baltic and North Seas show warming of 0.5 to 1.0 °C over the past 15
years
Growing Season & Phenology
past trends
• Growing season has extended by 10 days from 1962–1995
• ‘Greenness’ increased by 12% from 1982–1999
days
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Observed changes in growing season length from 1962–1995
Greeness of vegetation 1982 - 1999
Data-sources: EPN, Menzel et al. 2002, Zhou et al. 2001
future projection
• Further extension of growing season
• Mid and northern Europe: increasing biomass production
• Southern Europe: risk of drought stress  decreasing production
Flooding (Human Health)
Flooding (Human Health)
Data-sources: EMDAT(CRED), Munich-Re, Swiss-Re, …
future projection
• Increasing likelihood of floods
past trends
• Between 1975 and 2001 238 floods have been recorded
• The number of flood-events increased
• The number of deaths by flood events decreased
Outlook
 There is urgent need for better data
monitoring programs data, access from research and
public sector
 We need more information about the frequency
and impacts of extreme events
research programs
 Attribution to climate change
multiple forcing climatic – non-climatic factors
e.g. agriculture, forestry sector, pests and diseases
 Response indicators (adaptation, mitigation)
 Stakeholder dialogue: Are we in line?
Plant Species in Mountains
past trends
• Endemic mountain plant species are threatened to some extent
• Upward migration has led to an increase in plant species richness
16
14
Change in species richness per decade (%)
12
30 high summits of the eastern Alps
10
8
6
4
2
0
• Considerable loss of endemic species in mountain regions is projected
Data-sources: GLORIA, IPCC, …
future projection
-2
The Framework
DPSIR
Assessment Framework of the EEA
 Driving Force (socio-economic)
 Pressure (emissions)
 State (climate)
 Impact
 Response (policy)
Smeets E., Weterings R. (1999): Environmental indicators: Typology and Overview.
Technical Report No 25. http://www.eea.eu.int/
37