Transcript miau.gau.hu
Policy Information System for Agricultural
Sectors in Transition Countries
Developed as part of a FAIR-project (CT95-0029) financed by EU Commission (DG VI)
Substantial changes in agricultural production and for statistical institutions
High information demand by policy makers (EU, Candidate Countries)
Background:
Methodology
Technique
Realisation
Activity Based Table of
Accounts (ABTA)
Microsoft ACCESS
Co-operation with institutions
in Candidate Countries
crop
production
statistic
horticulture
production
statistic
cost of
production
price
statistic
supply
balance
sheets
animal
production
statistic
Flexible data import
Output
Generation
Output
Use
Input
Use
Input
Generation
foreign
trade
statistic
national /
agricultural
accounts
Level
crop area
Feedback for statistics
User-friendly datamanagement
Implementation in Hungary
(AKII) and Latvia (LVAEI)
Routines for consistency and
plausibility checks
Compatible to SPEL/EU-data
fodder
balances
livestock
numbers
Sectoral income indicators
Income contribution of important
production branches
Identification of developments
1,10
600000
1,00
Total = Production Value
Intermediate Consumption
500000
mio Forint
Gross Value Added at market prices
Description of value added changes
Price
300000
200000
100000
0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Gross Value Added calculation for Hungary
(at constant prices 1990)
0,80
input-output-price
ratio
0,70
400000
90
livestock pork
0,90
Volume
Mix-effect
Sum
Output
2,37
0,38
0,17
2,91
Input
1,55
0,46
0,16
2,17
Saldo
0,82
-0,08
0,01
0,74
0,60
0,50
90
92
93
94
95
96
97
Diagnosis of shortages
Pork fattening in Hungary (1994 to 1995):
- Growth rate of value added = +74%
- Impact of Input-Output-price-relation = +82%
- Impact of input-productivity = -8%
Regional comparison (by countries) of
technological coefficients
91
e.g. fertiliser constraints, fodder exploitation,
availability of heifers, ...
DRC: Domestic Resource Costs (value < 1 = competitive)
Rentability of particular production branches
under alternative frameworks and constant
production structure
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Wheat production in Hungary at
different market situations:
DRC
= undisturbed
PRC_HU = observed
PRC_CAP = EU
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Ex-ante analysis, based on Diagnosis and Evaluation
Interface to existent IAP-models
Forecast with consistent
framework model
Expert knowledge and
partial analyses
Intrasectoral
interdependencies and
sectoral constraints
Elasticity driven
simulation approach
Elasticity matrices for supply
and demand function
Determination of optimal solution
in the consistent framework
Programming model
Non-linear programming
approach (see CAPRIproject of IAP)
Contact: Jochen Köckler ([email protected]), Andreas Quiring ([email protected]),
Tanja Bargel ([email protected]), Institute for Agricultural Policy, Market research,
and Economic Sociology (IAP), Tel:++49-228-732335