Transcript miau.gau.hu

Policy Information System for Agricultural
Sectors in Transition Countries
Developed as part of a FAIR-project (CT95-0029) financed by EU Commission (DG VI)
 Substantial changes in agricultural production and for statistical institutions
 High information demand by policy makers (EU, Candidate Countries)
Background:
Methodology
Technique
Realisation
 Activity Based Table of
Accounts (ABTA)
 Microsoft ACCESS
 Co-operation with institutions
in Candidate Countries
crop
production
statistic
horticulture
production
statistic
cost of
production
price
statistic
supply
balance
sheets
animal
production
statistic
 Flexible data import
Output
Generation
Output
Use
Input
Use
Input
Generation
foreign
trade
statistic
national /
agricultural
accounts
Level
crop area
 Feedback for statistics
 User-friendly datamanagement
 Implementation in Hungary
(AKII) and Latvia (LVAEI)
 Routines for consistency and
plausibility checks
 Compatible to SPEL/EU-data
fodder
balances
livestock
numbers
 Sectoral income indicators
 Income contribution of important
production branches
 Identification of developments
1,10
600000
1,00
Total = Production Value
Intermediate Consumption
500000
mio Forint
Gross Value Added at market prices
Description of value added changes
Price
300000
200000
100000
0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Gross Value Added calculation for Hungary
(at constant prices 1990)
0,80
input-output-price
ratio
0,70
400000
90
livestock pork
0,90
Volume
Mix-effect
Sum
Output
2,37
0,38
0,17
2,91
Input
1,55
0,46
0,16
2,17
Saldo
0,82
-0,08
0,01
0,74
0,60
0,50
90
92
93
94
95
96
97
 Diagnosis of shortages
Pork fattening in Hungary (1994 to 1995):
- Growth rate of value added = +74%
- Impact of Input-Output-price-relation = +82%
- Impact of input-productivity = -8%
 Regional comparison (by countries) of
technological coefficients
91
e.g. fertiliser constraints, fodder exploitation,
availability of heifers, ...
 DRC: Domestic Resource Costs (value < 1 = competitive)
 Rentability of particular production branches
under alternative frameworks and constant
production structure
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Wheat production in Hungary at
different market situations:
DRC
= undisturbed
PRC_HU = observed
PRC_CAP = EU
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
 Ex-ante analysis, based on Diagnosis and Evaluation
 Interface to existent IAP-models
Forecast with consistent
framework model
 Expert knowledge and
partial analyses
 Intrasectoral
interdependencies and
sectoral constraints
Elasticity driven
simulation approach
 Elasticity matrices for supply
and demand function
 Determination of optimal solution
in the consistent framework
Programming model
 Non-linear programming
approach (see CAPRIproject of IAP)
Contact: Jochen Köckler ([email protected]), Andreas Quiring ([email protected]),
Tanja Bargel ([email protected]), Institute for Agricultural Policy, Market research,
and Economic Sociology (IAP), Tel:++49-228-732335