Transcript CWF Echo Tops Algorithm

FAA Tactical Weather Forecasting In The
United States National Airspace
Bill Dupree
Marilyn Wolfson
Rick Johnson, Jr.
Bob Boldi
Evelyn Mann
Kim Theriault Calden
Carol Wilson
Paul Bieringer
Brian Martin
Haig Iskenderian
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Aviation Delay Problem
Aviation Weather Delays
US Air Traffic Density
Forecast Requirements
• Accurate Wx and Forecasts
• Current
• Rapid Update (2-5min)
• High-resolution (1km)
• Reliable
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Motivation for Precip Forecast
(Terminal Delays)
04:00 Z
03:30- 5:10 Z
10:30-12:10am Local Time
Memphis, TN 15 July 1997
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Vertical Integrated Liquid Water (VIL)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Motivation for Echo Tops Forecast
(En Route Delays)
VIL (levels)
Echo Tops (kft)
Flights Shown: All flights at or above 4.9 km (16,000 ft)
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Overview
• Problem
• 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System
–
–
–
–
Evolution of Forecast System
Forecast Components
Forecast Products
Performance
• Research Efforts
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Evolution of the Forecast System
1998:
1-hr Forecast
in ITWS
1998
2002:
2-hr Forecast
(Multi-scale Tracking &
Weather Classification)
1999:
Growth/Decay
Tracker Patent
1999
2000
2001
2003:
Growth/Decay
Trending
2002
2003
2003:
Winter
Forecast
2005:
Echo Tops
Forecast
2004
2005:
Satellite/Precip
Loop
2005
Integrated
Terminal Weather
System (ITWS)
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
New York
Orlando
Memphis
Dallas
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NEXRAD
Canadian Radars
ASR-9 Radars
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Weather Classification
Weather Classification
NEXRAD Precipitation (VIL)
9 July 2003
17:17 Z
Line
Storms
Small
Cells
Multi-scale
Tracking
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Large
Cells
Stratiform
Rain
Forecast
Engine
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Multi-scale Tracking Technology
Envelope
Envelope Vectors
VIL
9 July 2003
Weather Classification
Image
13 x 69
km
Multiscale
Tracking
Vectors
Cell
Cell Vectors
13 km
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Growth and Decay Trends
Difference Images
VIL & Echo Top
Images
Prior Image
(Each Advected to Analysis Time)
Current Image
Growth/Decay
Apply
match
template
kernels to
each pixel
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Trend Images
Boundary Growth
VIL
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Generation of 2-hr Forecast
Weather
Classification
Multi-scale
Tracking
Growth & Decay Boundary
Trends
Growth
Echo Top
Cap
VIL Forecasts
Thunderstorm
Evolution
Models
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Echo Top
Forecasts
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
VIL Forecast Verification 60min
(25 June – 1 July 2005)
Hit
Miss
False Alarm
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Overview
• Problem
• 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System
• Research Efforts
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Convective Initiation Forecasting
(Front and Wind Boundary Locations)
DATA SOURCES
Doppler Radar
Surface Sensors
Model Winds
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Surface
Wind
Analysis
System
Temporal
Integration
Filters
Automated
Front/Boundary
Detections
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Automated Front Detection
20 April 2005
(10-5 sec-1)
Data from NOAA FSL: Space Time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS)
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Summary
• Demonstrating 0-2 hr forecasts of VIL and Echo Tops
– Covers busiest air traffic sectors of US
• Performance is consistently excellent
• User feedback has been crucial in system development
– High benefits now being realized
• Convective initiation forecasts still needed
– Promising new techniques for automated boundary detection
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory
End of presentation
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