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GERMAN BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC MEETING 2012
XXX Entrepreneurial Meeting and
XXXIX Meeting of the Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation
Frankfurt, Germany - July1st to July 3th, 2012
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DA INFRAESTRUTURA E INDÚSTRIAS DE BASE
Ralph Lima Terra
Executive Vice President
ACTUAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
US$ Billion
2011 Prices
101.7
103.7
89.6
78.5
37.8
2003
42.4
2004
50.6
2005
54
2006
64.2
2007
2008
2011 Prices: Figures updated by inflation over the period
Exchange rate 2011 : 1 US$ = 1.67 R$
“
“ 2010: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$
2009
2010
2011
INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE
2011-2015 (US$ billion )
ELECTRIC POWER
US$
80.7
OIL AND GAS (*)
US$ 241.2
TRANSPORT/
LOGISTICS
US$
97.7
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
US$
56.0
WATER AND
SANITATION
TOTAL
(*) E&P, downstream, gas and energy.
Exchange rate: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$
US$ 48.3
US$ 523.9
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
ELECTRIC POWER
10-YEARS EXPANSION PLAN (2011/2020)
This expansion plan has an integrated vision of the demand expansion
and different available sources.
GENERATION
Expansion plan will increase the installed capacity (109,578 MW)
with additional 61,560 MW (23% renewable).
TRANSMISSION
Physical expansion of the transmission system (99,649 Km in
Dec. 2010) is expected to happen with additional 42,553 Km
Global Substation System (222,119 MVA in Dec.2010) will add
new 69,251 MVA
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
OIL & GAS
E&P
•
After-Salt areas
 11th Bid Round – 174 blocks (planned)


•
87 off-shore
87 on-shore
Pre-Salt area – New frontiers
 Basins in Santos, Campos and Espirito Santo state
•
Shipyard and Systems
 Modernization and Expansion of Transpetro (Petrobrás
subsidiary company) fleet
 Demand for building and/or leasing of:

Drilling equipments, production platforms, special and support
ships
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT
NATIONAL PLAN FOR LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORT
Goal: to recover investment level in infrastructure, addressing
1% of GDP at least, over 2008-2023.
Roadways: conservation and expansion of network
Railways: restructuring and expansion from 28,830 Km
to 44,720 Km (load)
Passengers: High Speed Train (São Paulo / Campinas /
Rio e Janeiro): 511 km - Expected investment : US$ 23 B
Public hearings planned for 2012
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT
Ports
NEW PROJECTS PLANNED:
A new plan addressed by the regulatory agency indicates 19 areas
along the Brazilian coast where to develop and build new ports.
•
Private sector is also expected to invest and operate.
•
The first project will be set in Manaus (Amazonas State,
North Region) involving US$ 795 million.
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT
Ports
• A technical study by Government to evaluate both the institutional
organization and management efficiency of the global Port sector is ready
and under analysis at the Civil Cabinet.
• Study structure:
 Sector characteristics under several aspects: institutional, physical,
economic, management, and legal;
 Proposals for directions such as:
o Model on how to explore the port infrastructure
o Management of a public port
o Port operations efficiency
o Institutional organization
 Suggestions on how to elaborate a law bill for the institutional
organization
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT
Airports
Investment plan (2010 to 2014)
• Infraero, federal state-owned company, has released an
investment plan for 16 airports with an amount of US$ 5.6 billion.
Bidding processes under way or about to happen.
Private sector new opportunities (2011)
• The federal government started the concession model adoption in
the Brazilian airport system. Private utilities will be responsible for
investment and operation in a partnership with Infraero.
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT
Private sector new opportunities
• First airport concession: São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport (city of
Natal) in the State of Rio Grande do Norte (Northeast). Auction done in
Aug 22th. 2011
• Three of major airports went under a bid last February (Brasilia,
Viracopos, and Guarulhos ). Management will be done by private
concessionaires who are investing 9.6 US$ billion over the concession
period (25, 30 and 20 years respectively) and 1.7 US$ billion just until
the World Cup 2014.
• Next airports to be under bid expected to be Rio International and Belo
Horizonte.
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
WATER AND SANITATION
National Plan for Water and Sanitation:
Federal Government has built a plan (now under final hearings)
that aims at universalizing the access to services of water and
sanitation in 20 years (2030).
Investment requirements:
•
Goal is to provide water and sanitation infrastructure for
100% of the population.
•
US$ 9.6 billion/year until 2030 or US$ 11.4 billion/year
until 2025.
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
UNIVERSALIZATION OF TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
New contracts were signed between regulatory agency and
private companies to extent infrastructure and services even to
small communities in the country.
Challenge to merge internet, broad band, TV and telephony
Last June, a bid promoted by ANATEL (59 lots) awarded 6 telecom
companies for very high speed wideband (4G) and rural wideband
as well.
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
PAC II (2011 – 2014)
Overall Projected Investment
(US$ Billion)
2011 – 2014
Beyond
2014
Total
For a better city (water & sanitation +
urban mobility )
32.4
--
32.4
For the community (healthcare +
education)
13.1
--
13.1
158.1
--
158.1
Water and Light for all
17.4
--
17.4
Transport / Logistics
59.4
2.6
62.0
264.5
356.3
620,8
544.9
358.9
903.8
Segment
My home, my life (housing)
Energy
TOTAL
Exchange rate: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$
Source: Federal Government.
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
PAC II (2011 – 2014)
INFRASTRUCTURE AREAS
Projected investment (US$ billion)
Segment
2011 – 2014
Beyond
2014
Total
Urban infrastructure (water & sanitation
+ urban mobility)
32.4
--
32.4
Water and Light for all
17.4
--
17.4
Transport and logistics
59.4
2.6
62.0
264.5
356.3
620.8
373.7
358.9
732.6
Energy
TOTAL
Exchange rate: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$
Source: Federal Government.
WORLD CUP 2014
WORLD CUP 2014
May 13, 2008 – Ministry of Sports and CBF (Brazilian Soccer
Confederation) sign a Technical Cooperation Agreement with
ABDIB
March 2009 – ABDIB Study concluded : Infrastructure Demand
to handle World Cup 2014 in 18 candidate host cities.
Emphasis on structuring projects (multiplying factor)
LEGACY
WORLD CUP 2014
Required Actions
in 9 areas
City Requirements
• Infrastructure for airports and ports
Allowing transfers of delegations, tourists and
supporters in a fast and efficient way
• Infrastructure for roads
Enabling connections among airport / hotel / stadium
• Water & Sanitation
• Power
•Telecommunications
• Hotel network
Able to meet demand
• Touristic and economic potential in the
region
• Hospital network (public and private)
• Public Security
18
WORLD CUP 2014
GAP ANALYSIS
Airports
A
Ports
A
Hotel
network
A
Power
A
Telecomm.
A
Hospital
network
A
Water/
Sanitation
Security
A
A
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
Key Indicators - Ideal level - 2014
A
18
Candidate
cities
Key Indicators- Minimum level - 2014
Urban
Mobility
Explanation
A
Actual status
B
Estimated status in
2014 with existing
projects
Gap still open to
be closed with
recommended
additional projects
Minimum Minimum
Level level of
requirements
to be a host
city for 2014
World Cup
Ideal
level
Ideal level to
enable a city
to host any
game in 2014
World Cup,
independently
of the phase
WORLD CUP 2014
Estimated Investment Volume (US$ Million)
Dimension
URBAN MOBILITY
Projects
Amount
287
39,791.51
38
4,165.00
7
463.71
ELECTRICAL POWER
128
1,566.65
WATER & SANITATION
186
7,313.82
HOTEL NETWORK
132
7,558.41
HOSPITAL NETWORK
25
690.47
SECURITY
63
2,478.79
STADIAS / ARENAS
12
3,836.12
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
30
2,049.53
16 AIRPORTS
PORTS
Total
908
69,914.01
WORLD CUP 2014
Investment Potential
by Host-Cities
Host City
MANAUS
SALVADOR
FORTALEZA
BRASÍLIA
BELO HORIZONTE
CUIABÁ
RECIFE
CURITIBA
RIO DE JANEIRO
NATAL
PORTO ALEGRE
SÃO PAULO
R$ Million
6,036.95
8,999.44
6,727.20
6,169.50
11,681.40
2,117.20
5,813.01
6,830.21
18,675.90
5,756.31
7,352.20
34,570.80
Total Brazil
120,730.12
Fortaleza
Natal
Manaus
Recife
Cuiabá
Salvador
Brasília
Belo Horizonte
Rio de Janeiro
Curitiba
São Paulo
Porto Alegre
WORLD CUP 2014: Arenas by Host City
WORLD CUP 2014: Arenas by Host City
WORLD CUP 2014
Airports
INVESTMENT PLAN (2010 - 2014)
Investment
Amount (US$ Million)
São Paulo (Viracopos, Guarulhos)
1,217
Rio de Janeiro (Galeão, Santos Dumont)
491
Belo Horizonte (Confins)
289
Porto Alegre
687
Curitiba
228
Brasília
491
Cuiabá
51
Manaus
186
Fortaleza
161
Salvador
25
Natal
328
Recife
11
TOTAL AIRPORTS
4,165
WORLD CUP 2014
WATER AND SANITATION
INVESTMENT PLAN (2010 - 2014) = 7.3 US$ b
Some examples:
City
Project
Objectives
Investment on the Sewage System for BH Metropolitan
network
Expansion and improvement of the current Sewage
System
Increase in the Sewage Collection
Expansion of sewage tunnels
Reduction, Disposal and recovery of solid waste
Actions aiming at reducing waste generation and
implement adequate disposal
Implementation of the Cocó Macro System (Sewage)
Cover 80% population
Implementation of collection network and ocean outfalls
in Nothern region
Cover 100% population via sewage network
Porto Alegre
New water collection
Reduce cost of chemical products for water treatment
Recife/Olinda
Capibaribe Basin
Re-urbanization, creation of new public areas and streets
36 boroughs in the western area improvement of
environmental conditions in the Capibaribe basin
Rio de Janeiro
Sewage
Expansion of the sewage collection and treatment for Rio
Marangá basin, improving coverage.
Belo Horizonte
Cuiabá
Curitiba
Fortaleza
Natal
Salvador
Expansion of the Sewage system - collection, pumping
stations, home connections - Bacias do Comércio, AratuMacaco, Jaguaribi, Calafate 1 e 2, Alto do Camurujipe 1 e
2, Tripas, Saboeiro, Mangabeira e Península
WORLD CUP 2014
Ports
INVESTMENT PLAN (2010 - 2014)
Investment
Amount (US$ Million)
Project Description
São Paulo (Santos)
86.4
Pier improvement and internal access
Rio de Janeiro
178.4
Implementation of 3 Piers
50.8
Adaptation of 3 Storage Depots to Passenger Terminals,
restauration of luggage storage, pier expansion,
front-area urbanization with parking lots and
passangers crossways.
Manaus
Natal
30.5
Fortaleza (Mucuripe)
84.7
Construction of Passenger Terminal, new pier pavement,
area urbanization with parkings and better accesses
20.5
Adaptation of old installations to Passenger Terrminals,
Pier expansion, area urbanization with parkings and
better accesses
Salvador
Recife
12.4
TOTAL PORTS
Adaptation of old installations to Passenger Terrminals,
Pier expansion, area urbanization with parkings and
better accesses
463.7
Adaptation of a storage Depot and construction of a new
passenger Terminal, pavement, and area urbanization
with parkings and better accesses
WEBSITE FOR THE WORLD CUP 2014
OLYMPIC GAMES 2016
OLYMPIC GAMES 2016
POTENTIAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
Investment
(US$ million)
Investment
COJO *
(US$ million)
Total
(US$
million)
%
1,270.25
0.0
1,270.25
20.69
Sport
Installations
476.65
282.54
759.19
12.13
Security
235.95
0.00
235.95
3.77
Technology
202.93
35.82
238.75
3.81
3,730.00
0.00
3,730.00
59.59
Total
5,915.78
318.36
6,234.14
100.0
%
94.91
5.09
100.0
Area
Olympic
Villages
Transport
*COJO = Organization Committee for the Games
OLYMPIC GAMES 2016
AGENDA
Actions planned for the Olympic Games 2016 are perfectly
connected with those for the Word Cup in 2014. Major projects
in Rio include:
 Implementation of street works, special works, micro and
partial drainage and / or adjustments in existing streets, to
facilitate access to huge sports events;
 Reurbanization in areas sorrounding Maracanã and the
harbour, with a great and significant social impact in
installations, housing and transport;
 Corredor T5 - Barra da Tijuca – Penha (Bus Rapid Transit);
OLYMPIC GAMES 2016
AGENDA
 Express corredor connecting Lagoa with Barra boroughs;
 Connection between Deodoro and Barra boroughs (BRT);
 Connection Barra and Penha (BRT);
 Rio Olympic Park;
 Olympic Centers;
 Media Village in Barra area;
 Olympic Village;
 Main Press Center and International Broadcasting Center
 Sponsors Village and Live Site.
31
BNDES FINANCING BY ECONOMIC SECTOR
Original values, in US$ billion
Economic
sector
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Agrobusiness
1.5
2.4
1.7
1.6
2.6
3.1
3.5
5.7
5.9
Industry
4.6
4.5
7.6
9.0
9.2
16.4
14.8
23.5
19.5
Basic industry
0.6
0.9
1.9
2.8
3.4
3.1
5.4
4.9
4.1
Services and
Retail
1.2
1.2
1.9
2.6
4.5
6.3
10.6
17.4
19.6
Infrastructure
3.0
4.7
6.2
7.6
13.6
20.7
34.1
44.0
34.1
Total
10.9
13.6
19.3
23.6
33.3
49.7
68.2
95.7
83.2
Basic industry
(%) in global
outlays
5.7
6.5
10.0
12.1
10.2
6.3
7.8
5.2
4.9
Infrastructure
(% ) in global
outlays
27.5
34.8
32.2
32.3
41.0
41.7
50.0
46.0
41.1
Source: BNDES (Social and Economic Brazilian Development Bank)
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT FUNDS
Operating funds:

AG Angra Infraestrutura: W&S + infrastructure sectors

FIP Brasil Energia: energy and renewable energy

Infra Brasil FIP: W&S + transport, energy

BRZ Logística : transport

FIP Caixa Ambiental: W&S

FIP Energia PCH: Small Hydro and Thermal plants

FI FGTS : all infrastructure sectors
Note: Committed Capital: R$ 19.4 billion = US$ 11.6 billion
RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
 Creation of a private market for investment project long-term
financing, with focus on infrastructure development, as an additional
source to BNDES.
 Law 12,431, in 2011, Jun. 24
 Decree 7,603, in 2011, Nov. 9
 Statement nº 18 (air transport ministry), in 2012, Jan. 23
 Statement nº 9 (transport ministry), in 2012, Jan. 30
 Statement nº 9 (ports ministry), in 2012, Feb.2
 Statement nº 47 and 90 (electric power ministry), in 2012, Feb. 6
and Mar. 2
 Statement nº 76 (national integration ministry), in 2012, Feb.15
 Statement nº 181 (science & technology ministry), in 2012, Mar.7
RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Law 12,431 and Decree 7,603
• Objective:
• Regulate a private market for long-term financing with focus
on infrastructure investment projects, as an additional source
to public banks and BNDES.
• Issue process of infrastructure debentures
• Regulate how to approve investment projects in infrastructure
(and research and development as well), to make them
eligible to fiscal benefits
• Infrastructure projects will be approved for eligibility by the
correspondent sector Ministry (by Statements)
RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
• Debentures specifically issued to implement infrastructure
investment projects in priority areas;
• Program to issue debentures will end 2015, December
31st;
Fiscal Benefits on
Income Tax
Without law
With new law
Foreign investment
15%
zero
Individual (resident)
15 to 22.5%
zero
Company (resident)
25%
15%
RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Priority Areas to be covered in infrastructure
Sectors
Objective
(i)
implementation;
(i)
Logistics and transport;
(ii)
expansion;
(ii)
Urban Mobility;
(iii)
maintenance;
(iii)
Energy;
(iv)
recovery;
(iv)
Telecommunications;
(v)
adjustments;
(v)
Radio -transmission;
(vi)
modernization
(vi)
Water and Sanitation;
(vii)
Irrigation
VERY RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Released on June 27
- Reduction of Long-Term Interest Rate from 6% to 5.5% per year
10
9.75
TJLP
% per year
9
8
6.85
7
6.25
6.25
6
6
6
6
5.5
5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
- Governmental procurement of R$ 8.43 billion (US$ 4.2 b) on
equipments and vehicles to be done in 2nd. half of 2012
-Preference to over 80 items manufactured in Brazil for
governmental procurement (with a price margin from 8 to 25%
depending on the technology content) until June 2017
MARKET VALUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES
August 08 - December 11
(stocks in R$)
1,000,000,000,000
784,286,432,030
900,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
720,120,306,086
700,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
492,722,054,250
500,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
374,535,852,471
300,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
0
Total with Petrobras
Source: Bovespa (São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Elaboration: Abdib
Total without Petrobras
EXTERNAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
Brazil has improved its ranking among the countries
on direct foreign investment
2010 ranking
2012 ranking
China
1st
1st
India
3rd
2nd
Brazil
4th
3rd
United States
2nd
4th
Germany
5th
5th
Australia
7th
6th
Singapore
24th
7th
UK
10th
8th
Indonesia
20th
9th
Malaysia
21th
10th
Source: AT Kearney
Elaboration: Abdib
FINAL MESSAGE
 Investors in Brazil are twice welcome:
 They can cooperate to Brazil’s very important
development from both social and economic
point of view
 Projects legacy will equally benefit society and
those who accomplished them or helped in
their accomplishment
42
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DA INFRAESTRUTURA E INDÚSTRIAS DE BASE
VIELEN DANKE!
THANK
ThankYOU!
you!
www.abdib.org.br
[email protected]