Transcript Slide 1
Aggregator Perspective on Carbon Credits Presented by AgraGate Climate Credits Corp David Miller, Chief Science Officer July 18, 2007 Items to be Covered • Current opportunities in US carbon credit markets • Carbon market expectations • Dealing with uncertainty in agricultural carbon credits • Characteristics of cost-effective aggregation programs Carbon Credit Program Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Achieved via qualifying GHG emission reduction projects Carbon Credit Program • Eligibility Assessment • Protocol Development • Monitoring • Reporting • Verification • Registration Carbon Credits (certified, tradable, $$) Chicago Climate Exchange protocols Sell on CCX through an aggregator CCX Reduction Timetable • 2003-2006: Reduce emissions to 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% below 1998-2001 baseline • 2006 – 2010: Reduce emissions to 6% below 98-01 baseline CCX Emission Reduction Schedule 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 19982001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Meeting CCX Reductions • Allowances (x% less than • Soil Offsets • No-till • New Grass • Rangeland baseline) • Own reductions • Industry credits from excess reductions • Offsets (no more than 50% of reduction requirement) • Forestry • New Plantings • Enhanced Working Forest • • • • Ag Methane Industrial Fuel Switching Biofuels Landfill Methane 5M ay 5M ar 5Ja n 5N ov 5Ju l 5Se p 5M ay 5M ar 5Ja n 5N ov 5Ju l 5Se p 5M ay 5M ar 5Ja n 5N ov 5Ju l 5Se p 5M ay 5M ar 5Ja n $ Per Metric Ton Carbon Offset Prices 2004 - 2006 2006 Vintage Carbon Offset Prices 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Price forecasts for US carbon credits Figure 1. Projected price curves for US carbon credits ($US per metric ton). $35 $30 $25 hi $20 low $15 med $10 $5 $0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sources: Carbon Finance, August 2004; EIA/DOE 2004. Analysis of S. 1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003; S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003; and S. 366, the Clean Power Act of 2003. Energy Information Administration, USDOE, SR/OIAF/2004-05, May 2004; EIA/DOE 2005. Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy. Energy Information Administration, USDOE, SR/OIAF/2005-02, April 2005; AEP 2004. An assessment of AEP’s actions to mitigate the economic impacts of emissions policies. American Electric Power, August 31 2004 How Our Land is Used Carbon Sequestration • Carbon sequestration can be defined as the capture and secure storage of carbon that would otherwise be emitted to or remain in the atmosphere. • What are Carbon Credits? – Carbon credits encompass two ideas: (1) Prevention/reduction of carbon emissions produced by human activities from reaching the atmosphere by capturing and diverting them to secure storage. (2) Removal of carbon from the atmosphere by various means and securely storing it. SOIL CARBON DYNAMICS IN RESPONSE TO TILLAGE SOIL CARBON (% OF ORIGINIAL) IN RESPONSE TO CULTIVATION 100 PERENNIAL VEGETATION CONSERVATION TILLAGE PLOWING 50 0 1 years 50 Soil Offset Credit Zones No-till Credit Rates (Metric Tons CO2/Acre/Year) CCX Zone Dryland A 0.60 B, E, G & LRR(K) 0.40 C 0.32 Other LRR-G & H Irrigated 0.60 MLRA 52, 53A, 54 Chem Fallow 0.32/0.00 D&F 0.20 LRR-G & H Irrigated 0.60 New Grass Plantings Southwestern US: 0.4 ton; Rest of US: 1.0 ton Western Canada: 1.0 ton Tillage Equipment • Full width inversion – – – – – – • • Moldboard plow Chisel plow Field cultivator Tandem disk Offset disk Row crop cultivator • Okay to use – – – – No-till/strip-till planter No-till drill Rolling harrow Tools with wide knives • Subsoiler/ripper • Anhydrous applicator • Manure knife applicator General Guideline: After the implement has been through the field, there must still be a substantial amount of surface residue present and the soil disturbance must not be full width. If use of the implement would require that a leveling or smoothing activity follow, it would probably result in too much soil disturbance. No credits earned during year if residue is removed or burned Dealing with Uncertainty • What is the goal? – Assurance of a minimum amount? – Minimization of variation around the mean? • Two approaches – Pooling with discount – Specific plot measurement Pooling with Discount • Define eligible practices • Set rates for geographic areas – Peer-reviewed literature – Long-term studies (Reference sites) • Apply discounts from the mean rate – Cumulative probability distribution function • Law of large numbers Specific Site Measurement • Illusion of accuracy – Sampling error – Sampling bias • If aggregated, pool average will match true mean • Does not change carbon being sequestered Cost-effective Aggregation • Standardized contracts • Easy to understand forms & reports • Common, established practices in similar geographic areas • Reference sites with long-term data sets • Self certification with random spot checks • Penalties for dishonesty or fraud • Low transaction and verification costs Mechanics of Trading • CCX Registry • CCX Trading Floor Contact Information David Miller Chief Science Officer AgraGate Climate Credits Corp. 5400 University Ave West Des Moines, IA 50266 www.AgraGate.com Ph: 515-225-5431 E-mail: [email protected]