Transcript Slide 1

Minnesota’s Economic
Status Report
GWDC Quarterly Meeting
Duluth, August 2009
Oriane Casale
Assistant Director
Labor Market Information Office
DEED
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
The recession continues…
Minnesota’s economy began to slow
before nation
Weakness has been across all sectors
Labor market slack has reached historic
highs
Forecasts are of continued labor market
weakness despite evidence of
strengthening economy
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Employment since the last recession
105
Employment Level (March 2001 = 100)
104
US
47,000 job gap
103
MN
102
TC
- Recession 101
4 years
100
99
98
97
2001
- Recession -
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Job losses have been widespread …
Over The Year (June) Employment Growth By Industry Sector (NSA)
OTY Growth US OTY
OTY Job
Growth
Rate (%)
Change
Rate
-4.2
-4.0
-112,020
Total Non-Farm Employment
-7.3
-31.8
-2,033
Logging & Mining
-13.8
-15.7
-19,221
Construction
-12.3
-11.6
-39,552
Manufacturing
-4.6
-3.5
-18,709
Trade, Transport. & Utilities
-5.6
-4.0
-2,346
Information
-5.2
-0.9
-1,578
Financial Activities
-6.9
-9.9
-32,932
Prof. & Business Services
2.2
3.7
16,183
Ed. & Health Services
-2.4
-3.6
-9,394
Leisure & Hospitality
-2.0
-4.1
-4,932
Other Services
0.1
0.6
2,494
Government
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
MN employment around past cycle peaks
103
102
1991
101
100
P o st - War
A verage
99
2001
98
C urrent
R ecessio n
97
1982
96
95
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
M onths Be for e (-)/Since (+) Pe ak
16
18
20
22
24
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
More People Filing for Unemployment Benefits …
45,000
Total Claims for UI
40,000
Claims Due to Permanent Separation
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
… and receiving and exhausting benefits
140,000
12,000
UI Beneficiaries
120,000
Exhaustees
10,000
100,000
8,000
80,000
6,000
60,000
4,000
40,000
2,000
20,000
-
2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Jobseekers also face diminished job vacancies
120,000
5,000,000
100,000
4,000,000
US JOLTS
80,000
3,000,000
MN JVS
60,000
2,000,000
40,000
1,000,000
20,000
0
2001
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
The short run bottom line?
 Minnesota lost 100,000 jobs between second
quarter 2008 and second quarter 2009.
 Minnesota has reached all time highs in UI, at
44,000 new claims in May and 28,000 new claims
due to permanent separations in February.
 If current forecasts are accurate, Minnesota will:
 Lose 21,000 jobs between second quarter 2009 and
second quarter 2010 for a total of 121,000 jobs lost
over two years.
 Add an additional 50,000+ unemployed persons to the
current 250,000.
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
Job Declines = Rising Unemployment Rates
Source: Global Insight US Economic Outlook, July 2009
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi
New LMI Tools and Research
•Regional Website - http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/rws/ compares counties, EDRs, Planning Regions and state. Links to time
series data and graphs comparing regions.
•Research Grant Opportunities –
•Green Skills Research: Leverage Job Vacancy Survey to identify
green vacancies. Follow-up survey with employers to obtain
detailed information on skills requirements and shortages in green
occupations. Begin fall round of JVS. Initial findings in spring 2010.
•Workforce Locator Tool for prospective employers, site locators
and economic developers. Leverage existing program data (UI
claims, DW program, MinnesotaWorks) to describe workforce in a
radius search around a point. Joint project with WI and IA.
•Skills Transferability Tool will help dislocated workers find
occupations matching their skills and experience. Should be
available October 2009.
Labor Market Information Office
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi