Transcript 中国自動車産業の発展・展望 - Automotive News

China Auto Market Prospect
and
Strategy of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd
April 19th, 2005
Dongfeng Motor Company LTD
President, Katsumi Nakamura
1
Contents
1. What is Dongfeng Motor Co., LTD?
2. China Market : Development and Business Environment
3. Strategy of Dongfeng Motor Co., LTD
2
Partnership Structure
Dongfeng Automotive Industry
Investment Co., Ltd.
50%
50%
Nissan Motor Co. LTD
（Dongfeng holding company）
Cash investment
8.35 billion RMB
Asset investment
8.35 billion RMB and
core business transfer
Dongfeng Motor Co. LTD
Non-automotive
companies,
etc.
Core
automotive
operations
PSA/Honda
JVs
Commercial
vehicle
division
Passenger
car division
Equipment
division
Parts
division
3
One Company, Two Brands
DFL
A single full-line auto company
TRUCKS, CV’S & BUSES
PASSENGER VEHICLES
Sunny
Bluebird
Tiida
Teana
Pickup
Paladin
(Produced by Zhengzhou Nissan)
4
Contents
1. What is Dongfeng Motor Co., LTD?
2. China Market :
Development and Business Environment
3. Strategy of Dongfeng Motor Co., LTD
5
China Market Prospect
Continuous mid & long term market expansion
The toughest competitive market
Risks on the market growth to be controlled
through the governmental policies
6
CY1996-2010 TIV
Remark：Including CBU
10K units
846
900
Actual
Forecasting
800
748
610
600
525
500
343 222
300
100
0
183
144 157 160
106
110
109
38
47
51
CY96
CY97
CY98
126
213
144
245
57
69
85
CY99
CY00
CY01
566
276
PV
266
254
469
203
160
303
294
272
457
400
CV
319
659
700
200
772
235
271
300
CY03
CY04
CY05
338
383
454
CY07
CY08
528
140
CY02
Data source : (1) CY96-CY04 : CAAM+CPVIA
CY06
CY09
CY10
(2) CY05-CY10 : DFL Study
7
PV Growth Speed：Japan vs. China
(10K.Unit)
600
CY2010
CY1990
500
400
CY2004
CY1973
300
200
Japan:CY1964
100
China:CY1996
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
(Years)
Data Source : (1) Japan data : Japan Auto Handbook
(2) China data : CAAM & DFL Study
8
Population Structure of Japan (CY1970)
Population of CY1970：104.67 Million
80-84
70-74
Female
60-64
Male
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
6
4
2
0
2
4
6 (Mil.)
MIL
9
<Japan>
Population ratio of age 37- 40 &
Land Price Increase in six big cities
Source：Daiwa Institute of Research (Japan)
150
1987
7.61
％
120
Population ratio
8.0
％
87/9
101.6
7.5
90
60
30
0
7.0
1981
6.47
73/9
45.7
1969
6.20
6.17
1972
5.86
1977
▲ 7.2
-30
-60
2010
6.16
6.5
6.0
2002
5.18
5.70
1983
76/3
Land price increase
▲ 40.1
96/3
4.93
1997
03/3
5.07 ▲ 19.4
2003
5.5
5.0
4.5
10
Population Structure of China ( CY2000 )
Population of CY2000： 1242.6 Million
(Not including 2.5 million army man of Liberation Army)
100---90-94
Male
Female
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
10 years
20-24
10-14
0-4
80
40
0
40
80 (百万)
MIL
11
Number of Auto Enterprise
China CY2003 over 100
Global 27 brands + α
< Japan： 11 >
Nissan
Toyota
Honda
Mazda
Mitsubishi
Suzuki
Daihatsu
Isuzu
Subaru
Nissan Diesel
Hino
11
Dongfeng
Faw
Shanghai
Beijing
Guangzhou
Tianjin
Nanjing
Fujian
Changan
Brilliance
Heavy truck
Geely
Chery
Hafei
Great wall
Zhongxing
< United
3
States ： 3 >
GM
Ford
DCM (C)
< Europe： 10 >
10
VW・Audi
PSA. Fiat
BMW, DCM (D)
Renault, Volvo
Styer, Man
3
< Korea： 3 >
Hyundai
Kia
Daewoo
12
No. of Models in China Market
Source: Fourin （Japan)
120
14
100
Newly introduced models
80
41
60
15
40
20
101
12
7
17
60
9
33
24
45
Existing models
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
13
Market Price Trend
Representative models’ weighted ave. price by segment
MSRP:
K RMB
260.7
258.1
250
251.7
151.0
152.0
[Price down rate vs. ’03/Q4]
D-segment
249.3
246.8
-5.3%
C-segment
145
141.8
134.2
130.4
90
94.8
B-segment
89.6
'03/Q4
-13.6%
'04/Q1
89.7
'04/Q2
88.2
'04/Q3
79.5
-16.1%
'04/Q4
14
Top 10 Sales PV Makes
units
2004 1st Q
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Shanghai VW 100,884
FAW-VW
68,945
Shanghai GM
62,496
Changan Suzuki 34,763
Tianjin-FAW
30,988
Jili
27,827
Cherry
24,487
GZ Honda
24,424
Shenlong PSA 22,273
Beijing Hyundai 21,910
2005 1st Q
Shanghai VW
Beijing Hyundai
FAW-VW
GZ Honda
Tianjing-FAW
Shanghai GM
Cherry
Shenlong PSA
DF Nissan
Jili
62,962
56,064
52,799
42,888
42,294
39,704
34,695
32,976
29,191
26,029
Data source: CPVIA
15
Raw Material Price Hike
Supply and Demand
Hot rolled steel
Oku-ton
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2 1.12
1.0
0.8
0.6 0.86
0.4
0.2
0
‘03
0.6
1.78
Cold rolled steel
Oku-ton
0.5
1.22
1.21
0.40
0.4
1.43
0.3
0.40
0.22
0.30
0.2
Supply
Demand
0.1
0.16
0
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
0.55
‘10
‘03
Supply
‘04
‘05
‘06
Demand
‘07
‘08
‘09
‘10
Steel Market Economics Trend
170
160
Cold rolled steel
Hot rolled steel
Hot rolled steel in coil
Steel plate
Zinc plate steel
Overall Index
150
140
>10%
130
120
approx. 20%
110
100
2003/12/end
04/5/17~21
04/8/23~8/27
04/12/6~10
05/3/28~4/1
16
Energy Consumption – Oil
G ton
5.0
Oil consumption
Oil production
4.0
Oil import
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04 '05F
'10F
'15F
Data source: CPEA
17
Social & Environmental Issues
Emission Control
’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10
Fuel Consumption
New regulation
EUR1
Step 1
Step 2
New model
Jul/’05
Jan/’08
Existing
Jul/’06
Jan/’09
EUR2
EUR3
EUR4
<Beijing>
Safety
Infrastructure
 Traffic Fatalities:
104,372 (’03)
99,217 (’04)
43.3 times of JPN
 Stalled Traffic
 Lack of Parking
<per UIO, 2003>
Source) China: MPS, Japan: NPA, JAIA
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Contents
1. What is Dongfeng Motor Co., LTD?
2. China Market : Development and Business Environment
3. Strategy of Dongfeng Motor Co., LTD
19
Strategy of DFL
 Market and Customer Focus
 Ability of “Producing Excellent Products”
20
Brand Promise
NISSAN:
“Bold and Thoughtful”
SHIFT_
 products beyond the expectations
 “value for our customers”
21
TEANA
Proposal of New “Innovative Luxury Car”
22
TEANA
Proposal of New “Innovative Luxury Car”
23
TEANA – VQ35DE Engine
World’s 10 Best Engine <’93-’04>
24
TEANA
“Car of the Year in 2005 Award in China”
25
TIIDA
“All New Specious and Comfortable Sedan”
26
TIIDA
“Brand-New Comfort Car”
27
TIIDA – HR16DE
New Engine
28
Products Introduction Plan
New introduction
Full model change
Passenger vehicle serious
2003
2004
Minor change
2005
2006
2007
Upper, middle &
entry class cars
and multi-purpose
vehicle（MPV）
29
Sales & Service Network
NSSW (Nissan Sales & Service Way)
Number of Dealers
500
>400
*
400
300
200
100
150
100
0
2003
2004
2007
*) incl. 2nd tier dealers
Customer Satisfaction
SSI
CSI
2007
2003
2004
<objective>
No. 10
No. 5
Top level
No. 9
No. 5
Top level
30
State-of-the-art Technology
New Plant
– Huadu Vehicle Plant: May/’04 SOP (150K units)
– Xiangfan Plant:
Sep/’04 SOP (70K units)
– Engine Plant:
Beg/’06~ (360K units)
NPW (Nissan Production Way)
– “Zero” inventory by synchronized production
R&D Site
– PV New R&D Center: End/’05~ (330M RMB, 200,000m2)
QCD “KAIZEN”
– GENBA-KANRI, IE, Quality Management, etc.
31
Our Destination
To be;
One of the Best Brand in China,
providing “Value for our customers”