Transcript Per_Falholt

When is 2nd
generation coming ?
7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on
Renewable Energy
05-10-2007
AGENDA
 Biofuels now …
 … next, biomass to ethanol …
 … biomass challenges …
 … Beyond biofuels
Biofuels now …
Global bioethanol production growing strongly
16000
14000
12000
ROW
Mio Gal
10000
China
8000
Europe
North America
6000
Brazil
4000
2000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: US Energy Information Administration, F.O. Licht, Novozymes estimates
USA Bioethanol boom
Estimated 2007
production ~ 6.5bn
gal.
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production
9
8
Billion Gallons
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
0
1984
1986
1 Gallon = 3,785 liters
1988
1990
1992
1994
Source: 1 – U.S. Energy Information Administration/ Renewable
Fuels Association; 2 - SJH & Company Inc.; 3 – Novozymes est.
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
American ethanol plants
Jan 7, 2007
In operation 110
Construction 79
Proposed >200
Novozymes and biofuels
 ~10% of total revenues in 2006, ~12% of total H1 2007 revenues
 20-25% growth over next 3-4 years
 Largest supplier of enzymes to the fuel ethanol industry
 Mainly an US business but Europe & Asia
nice growth from lower levels
 Collaborations in Biomass with industry leaders
 Poet Energy in the US
 COFCO in China
 Abengoa in Europe
 CTC in Brazil
… next, biomass to
ethanol …
Why biomass-based ethanol?
- There is a limit as to how
much ethanol you can produce
from grain and sugar
- You can produce much more
ethanol from biomass
- If the ambitious objectives are
to be carried out, we need to
base production on biomass in
order to produce sufficient
amounts of ethanol
- Better utilization of agricultural
production
- Biomass has superior
environmental advantages
because a larger part of the
plant is used
BIOETHANOL
AND CO2
REDUCTION
Gasoline
g/MJ
80
1st gen. wheat
starch
30%
saving
70
60
Reduction of CO2
emission from
producing and
combusting 1
MJ fuel
45%
saving
50
2nd gen.
wheat straw
70%
saving
40
85%
saving
30
20
10
0
Gasoline
Conv. boiler
CHP tech.
Energy from
straw
2nd
generation
Cellulosic ethanol is taking off
2030 global vision for biofuel
Hydrogen regenerative
~4%
Natural Gas
Latest quote from
President Bush: “35
billion by 2017”
Oil
Based
<500 ppm
sulfur
~35%
Oil Based < 10 ppm sulfur
~38%
2nd generation of biofuel
based on biomass
1st generation grain-based bio-ethanol & biodiesel
2005
Source:
McKinsey Analysis
10F
20F
30F
~23%
Cellulosic ethanol developing worldwide
 Three main regions have a head start in cellulosic ethanol:
the USA, China and Europe
 All on-going pilot/demonstration plant projects experience very basic
feedstock / logistics issues (supply chain, grinding, conveying, mixing…)
 USA:
 New RFS of 35 bill. gal. by 2015 ~9-10% of total road transport fuel consumption
 2030 target of 30% alternative fuels
 6 to 8 final contenders for the DoE grant on the construction of 2 to 3 commercial
bio-refineries
 Overall, corn stover / fibers and wheat straw are the two types of feedstock
considered to hold the most potential
 Other companies are looking at woody substrates (sawdust, wood trimmings, soft
wood (pine trees, poplars), hard wood) or rice straw, citrus peels and urban waste
 Energy crops are being considered
 POET-Novozymes partnership
 No pilot plan running yet… but several will start up by the end of 2007
Cellulosic ethanol in Europe
 EU Energy Strategy - 2020 targets:
 20% renewable energy
 20% reduction in GHG emissions
 20% energy savings compared to
projections
 10% binding min. target for biofuels
 EU Biofuel directive:
 Encouarges member states to reach 5,75%
biofuel before 2010
 Only 1,4% has been reached, but Member
States show increasing commitment
 Some EU Members have a biofuel share of
1+%: AT, FR, SE, DE
 Cellulostic ethanol status:
 A few pilot plants will run in 2007 and one
larger scale demonstration plant
 Main feedstock: wheat straw
 The drive is more technological and
opportunistic
Cellulosic ethanol in China
• E-10 required in nine provinces
• Current production ~0.25 billion gallons per
year (2.3% of total Chinese consumption)
• Goal of 7.5% ethanol in 2010
• An enormous sense of urgency!
• A number of companies are going ahead in
the cellulosic ethanol field (organisms, pretreatment…)…only four companies have
officially been granted a license to produce
ethanol (subsidies for cellulosic ethanol are
pending)
• COFCO – NZ partnership
Provinces:
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Liaoning
Province:
Henan
Hebei
Provinces:
Hubei
Shandong
Jiangsu
Anhui
Cellulosic ethanol in the remaining world
Latin America
• 85% of all cars sold in Brazil are FFVs
• Strong industry growth
• Legislation on burning creating significant additional biomass
increasing awareness of bagasse as an important biofuel resource
• Brazil focussing on export opportunities, target is 10% of the
global demand
• International recognition of Brazil as key supplier and example
of a sustainable fuel economy
• Major agricultural land expansion potential
• NZ partnership with CTC
Japan & Korea
• Japan will be a net importer of ethanol from Brazil
• Biofuel target of 500 mill l. in place by 2010
• Limited feedstock availability due to limited agriculture. Wood is
the primary possibility
Africa & Middle
East:
• Potential major region for
growing crops, incl. sugar
cane
• No biofuels effort so far
South East Asia & Indian Sub.
• Political drive for ethanol production from local feedstocks
• Political instability limiting implementation of long term biofuel policy
• Biodiesel dominates the landscape due to feedstock availability
• Food for fuel debate will foster alternative feedstocks incl. lignocellulosic bionmass
… biomass challenges …
What about the cost structure?
Enzymatic
hydrolysis
Pre-treatment
Corn
stover
Pre-treated
corn
stover
Showstopper?
Fermentation
Glucose
Ethanol
Enzyme cost no longer dominates the
picture
- Cost comparison after the BioEnergy Project: grain vs. biomass in USD/gallon ethanol, April, 2005*
$7,00
$6,00
$5,00
Major cost reduction
In enzyme price
$4,00
$3,00
$2,00
$1,00
Estimate for Nthplant production,
current cost based
on lab-scale is $23/gal
$0,00
-$1,00
Starch*
Cellulose 1999
Cellulose 2005
*Modified from “Determining the Cost of Producing Ethanol from Corn Starch and Lignocellulosic Feedstocks”, NREL/TP-580-28893 joint USDA, NREL study released in October 2000.
Proteomic analysis of a cellulase producer
GH74
CDH
CBH I
CBH I
EG II
CBH II
EG I
GH61B
GH61F
GH61G
EG III
EG V
EG IV
GH61C
GH61D
SOD
Understanding GH61 ?
From starch to sugar -> biomass based fuel ethanol
Enzymes are one of the keys to the process, but are no longer the
major barrier for biomass conversion
Biomass
Collection
Pre-treatment
Enzyme
Hydrolysis
Fermen-tation
Recovery/
distillation
Fuel
Ethanol
Novozymes and cellulosic ethanol
• Ethanol from cellulosic feedstock - market
and technical leadership in the development
of processes for the conversion of cellulosic
biomass to economically viable ethanol. Pretreatment, hydrolysis and fermentation
expertise
• Extensive leverage from our manufacturing,
R&D and marketing capabilities in Europe,
North America, Latin America, India and
China
• ”Cellulase Cost Reduction for Bioethanol”
with the DoE as a subcontractor funded at
17.8 million USD
• Current further cellulase performance
improvement through an unprecedented R&D
effort
• Development of several hemicellulases
• Most importantly putting our enzymes to
work through partnerships
How far to go before 2nd generation ethanol will be
commercial?
 The process need be up scaled from lab to factory
 Further reduction in overall process costs required
 First pilot plants are starting
 Larger scale demonstration plants on-line within 2-3 years
 Commercial plants on-line within 4-5 years
…… Beyond Biofuels
The future potential for sustainable solutions
Bio-PDO™ DuPont/Tate&
Lyle Joint Venture
Tomorrow has
already started!
Loudon FacilityDuPont Tate & Lyle BioProducts
October 2006
Conclusion
 Novozymes is committed to actively participate
in the commercial development of a viable
biomass-to-ethanol process
 Enzyme costs have been viewed as the major
barrier for biomass conversion - this is no
longer the case even though improvements still
need to be achieved to make it an economically
viable process
 Continued enzyme research has delivered
improved performance which translates into
lower costs
 Enzymes need to be integrated into the process
developments in order to truly optimize the
costs in conjunction with other parameters. We
are teaming up with strong partners with
complementary technologies and with whom
we can develop the best solutions to achieve
commercial success