Transcript No Slide Title

Implications
of
New/Revised
NAAQS for
SO2, NO2,
and PM2.5 in
Air Quality
Modeling
Presented by: “Name, Title”
“Date”
For “Client Name”
Erin Riepe
August 4,
2010
Agenda
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Introduction to Trinity
Update on ambient air quality
standards
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PM2.5
NO2
SO2
Implications of changes in standards,
and their new forms
Policy Developments and Changes
Modeling Challenges
Trinity Consultants
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Founded 1974
27 offices nationwide +
China, Middle East
1,400 projects per year
Environmental and
business solutions for
industry

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Expertise in air
permitting, modeling,
and regulatory
compliance
Overall environmental
management support
Trinity Consultants’ Offices
Trinity’s Client Base
Revenue by Industry 2005 - 2007
Trinity’s Services and Products
Software & Data Services
Air dispersion modeling tools for:
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Continuous emissions
Accidental releases
Mobile sources
Hazards modeling tools for:
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LFG Fire/Risk
Fire/Explosions
Accidental atmospheric releases
Online geophysical data
Update to Ambient Air Quality Standards and their Implications
Criteria Pollutants
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Ozone (O3)
Particulate Matter (PM)
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
Lead (Pb)
Carbon Monoxide (CO)
Air Dispersion Modeling

Dispersion modeling
simulates how air
pollutants spread
throughout the
atmosphere and is used
to estimate the
concentration of
pollutants from sources
such as industrial plants
or highways.
Primary Standards
Pollutant
Carbon Monoxide
Lead
Secondary Standards
Level
Averaging Time
Level
Averaging Time
9 ppm (10μg/m3)
8-Hour
35 ppm (40μg/m3)
1-Hour
0.15 μg/m3
3-Month
Same as Primary Standard
1.5 μg/m3
Quarterly
Same as Primary Standard
0.053 ppm
Annual
Same as Primary Standard
0.100 ppm
1-Hour
None
150 μg/m3
24-Hour
Same as Primary Standard
15.0 μg/m3
Annual
Same as Primary Standard
35 μg/m3
24-Hour
Same as Primary Standard
0.060 – 0.070 ppm
8-hour (2010 std.)
0.075 ppm
8-Hour (2008 std.)
Same as Primary Standard
0.08 ppm
8-Hour (1997 std.)
Same as Primary Standard
0.03 ppm
Annual
0.14 ppm
24-Hour
0.075 ppm
1-hour
None
Nitrogen Dioxide
Coarse Particulate
Matter (PM10)
Fine Particulate
Matter (PM2.5)
Ozone
Sulfur Dioxide
Current NAAQS [Newest in Blue]
Proposed NAAQS [In Red]
7 – 15 ppm-hours
0.5 ppm
SO2 Annual and 24-hour going away.
W126
3-hour
2006
January 17, 2006 Proposed Revision of 24-Hour PM2.5 NAAQS
September 21, 2006 Revised 24-Hour PM2.5 NAAQS
2007
July 11, 2007 Proposed Revision of 8-Hour O3 NAAQS
September 13, 2007 Initiation of Periodic CO NAAQS Review
2008
March 27, 2008 Revised 8-Hour O3 NAAQS
May 20, 2008 Proposed Revision of Pb NAAQS
November 12, 2008 Revised Pb NAAQS
2009
Final Rule
NAAQS Proposed
NAAQS Related
July 15, 2009 Proposed Revision of NO2 NAAQS
2010
2011
September 16, 2009 U.S. EPA Announces Reconsideration of 2008 8-Hour O3 NAAQS
December 8, 2009 Proposed Revision of SO2 NAAQS
January 6, 2010 Proposed Revision of O3 NAAQS
January 29, 2010 Final Integrated Science Assessment for CO
April 12, 2010 1-hr NO2 NAAQS effective
August 23, 2010 1-hr SO2 NAAQS effective, 3 and 24-hr NAAQS revoked
Particulate Matter (PM)
Particulate Matter Updated in 2006
Primary Standards
Pollutant
Coarse
Particulate
Matter (PM10)
Fine
Particulate
Matter (PM2.5)
Secondary Standards
Level
Averaging
Time
50 μg/m3
Annual
Same as Primary Standard
150 μg/m3
24-hour
Same as Primary Standard
15 μg/m3
Annual
Same as Primary Standard
35 μg/m3
24-hour
Same as Primary Standard
Level
Averaging
Time
U.S. EPA is currently reviewing the 2006 PM NAAQS. If changes
are deemed necessary, the proposed rulemaking is scheduled for
January, 2011.
Particulate Matter
Form of the Primary Standards for PM2.5
• 24-hr Standard: 3-year average of the 98th percentile of
24-hour PM2.5 concentrations in a year is less than or equal
to 35 μg/m3.
• Annual Standard: 3-year average of the weighted annual
mean PM2.5 concentrations is less than or equal to 15
μg/m3.
Form of the Primary Standard for PM10
• 24-hr Standard: Same as PM2.5. Not to be exceeded
more than once per year on average over 3 years.
PM2.5 Policy Developments
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Surrogate policy
Significant Impact Levels (SILs), PSD
Increments, Significant Monitoring
Concentrations (SMCs)
Coupling background, or inventory
sources, and modeling results
PM2.5 Surrogate Policy (SP)
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Established in 1997, along with PM2.5 NAAQS
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PM2.5 NSR rule finalized May 2008
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Under NSR, PM10 compliance a surrogate for PM2.5 compliance
Rationale: inadequacy of PM2.5 data
SP reaffirmed, temporarily extended
EPA signals end of SP
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August 12, 2009 EPA order re. proposed KY power plant (Sierra
Club challenge) – case-by-case justification of SP use expected
On February 11, 2010, EPA proposed rule to repeal SP
See also March 23, 2010 EPA (Stephen Page) memo;
additional criteria for demonstrating that surrogate policy is
appropriate for modeling; PM2.5 NAAQS "screening" analysis.
End: May 2011 or approved SIP, whichever is earlier
PM2.5 Policy Developments –
States Pushing Back?
"The permit does not address PM2.5 directly. PM2.5 New
Source Regulations are not yet implemented by the state of
Arkansas. As an "approved" state, the state has 3 years
from the date of the rule to incorporate the provisions into its
regulations. In the interim and in accordance with EPA
policy, PM10 remains the regulated pollutant. ADEQ
acknowledges that the EPA proposed a rule on February 11,
2010 to repeal the EPA 1997 policy for the use of PM10 as a
surrogate for PM2.5. However, EPA has not yet made the
rule final which would establish an effective date.”
- Arkansas DEQ, in recent permit support document
PSD Increments, SILs, SMCs
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September 12, 2007 Proposed Rule
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SILs ranges proposed
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1.2 µg/m3 to 5.0 µg/m3, 24-hr average
0.3 µg/m3 to 1.0 µg/m3, annual average
SMCs, PSD Increments proposed
Many states using low end of range when
conducting ambient impacts analyses
Levels remain to be finalized; mentioned in
May 16, 2008 preamble as “forthcoming”
Coupling Background and
Modeled Concentrations
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February 26, 2010 Tyler Fox memo
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EPA now suggestion one cannot add modeled
H8H over 5 year met data to 98th %ile
(background) monitoring data
May not be NAAQS-protective
Inventory of PM2.5 sources often not
available for major or minor sources.
Extra care required in selecting monitor site
that is representative of ambient air since
PM2.5 includes direct and indirect sources.
Pollutant
CO
Averaging PSD SIL
Period 1
(µg/m3)
1-hour
2,000
Primary
Primary and
Class II
NAAQS from
Secondary
PSD
NYS DEC
NAAQS
(ppm except PM10 Increment
(µg/m3)
(µg/m3)
and PM2.5)
40,000
35
Monitoring de
minimis Level
(µg/m3)
--
1
--
1
575
8-hour
500
10,000
9
--
1-hour2
Annual
7.5
1
189
100
0.10
0.053
--
--
25
14
Ozone
8-hour
--3
147
0.075
--3
VOC or NOX
emissions increase
>100 tpy
PM10
24-hour
Annual
5
1
150
150
30
17
10
--
24-hour
1.2
35
35
--6
2.3
6
NO2
PM2.55
SO2
--
4
Annual
0.3
15
15
--
1-hour
-25
196
1,300
0.075
0.5
-512
---
5
1
365
80
0.14
0.03
91
20
13
--
7
3-hour
24-hour
Annual
--
1. No PSD Increments have been established for CO.
2. No PSD SIL, Increment, or monitoring de minimis level have been established. SIL set as 5% of
NAAQS (equivalent to the 1-hour CO SIL/NAAQS ratio). NAAQS converted from 100 ppb to mg/m3
based on ratio of annual NAAQS (53 ppb and 100 mg/m3).
3. No SIL or PSD Increments have been established for Ozone.
4. The annual NAAQS for PM10 was revoked, effective December 17, 2006.
5. No PSD SIL or monitoring de minimis level have been finalized; values shown are the minimum values
6. No PSD Increments have been established for PM2.5.
Significant Impact Levels,
NAAQS, PSD Class II
Increments, and Monitoring
de minimis Levels for Criteria
Air Pollutants
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)
Nitrogen Dioxide
Primary Standards
Pollutant
Nitrogen
Dioxide
Secondary Standards
Level
Averaging
Time
0.053 ppm
Annual
Same as Primary Standard
0.100 ppm
1-hour
Under Review with SO2
Level
Averaging
Time
January 2010, U.S. EPA:
• Added a 1-hour primary NO2 standard of 0.100 ppm (effective April 12,
2010).
• Retained the annual primary standard of 0.053 ppm.
The secondary NO2 standards are currently being reviewed by the U.S. EPA as part
of a joint review of the welfare effects associated with SO2 and NO2.
Nitrogen Dioxide
Form of the Primary Standard:
1-hour Standard: the 3-year average of the 98th percentile of the
daily maximum 1-hour average concentration in a year.
EPA allowing consideration of 5-year average, given a standard 5year meteorological data set.
Example: NO2 modeling results
EXAMPLE: ONE YEAR, SINGLE RECEPTOR (8760 concentrations)
1
3.25 8.36 2.94 0.63 9.00 ... 0.00 6.58 6.90 2.29 0.40
2
2.62 1.12 6.45 4.28 2.73 ... 3.92 6.92 5.61 3.50 0.83
3
0.93 7.25 4.61 9.02 8.84 ... 1.74 7.65 1.02 8.66 3.70
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
22 6.56 4.91 1.34 1.32 1.45 ... 8.68 0.45 2.49 2.04 6.15
23 1.96 9.01 2.18 5.53 5.22 ... 3.41 3.84 1.30 1.63 9.65
24 2.86 1.48 3.56 5.02 5.58 ... 4.94 8.38 2.70 7.95 1.55
HR/
DAY 1
2
3
4
5
... 361 362 363 364 365
Example NO2 modeling results, sorted
EXAMPLE: ONE YEAR, SINGLE RECEPTOR (8760 concentrations)
1
3.25 8.36 2.94 0.63 9.00 ... 0.00 6.58 6.90 2.29 0.40
ONE6.45
YEAR,4.28
SINGLE
SORTED
2 EXAMPLE:
2.62 1.12
2.73RECEPTOR,
... 3.92
6.92 (8760
5.61 concentrations)
3.50 0.83
3 =MAX
0.93 6.56
7.25 9.01
4.61 6.45
9.02 9.02
8.84 9.00...
... 1.74 8.68
7.65 8.38
1.02 6.90
8.66 8.66
3.70 9.65
5.61
7.95
.
. 3.25 .8.36 . 4.61 . 5.53. 8.84...
.
. 4.94
. 7.65
.
.
.
. 6.15
22 6.56 2.86
4.91 7.25
1.34 3.56
1.32 5.02
1.45 5.58...
... 8.68 3.92
0.45 6.92
2.49 2.70
2.04 3.50
6.15 3.70
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
23 1.96 9.01 2.18 5.53 5.22 ... 3.41 3.84 1.30 1.63 9.65
.
.
24 2.86 1.48 3.56 5.02 5.58 ... 4.94 8.38 2.70 7.95 1.55
2.62 4.91 2.94 4.28 5.22...
3.41 6.58 2.49 2.29 1.55
HR/
DAY 1 1.96
2 1.48
3 2.18
4 1.32
5 2.73...
... 361 1.74
362 3.84
363 1.30
364 2.04
365 0.83
=MIN 0.93 1.12 1.34 0.63 1.45...
0.00 0.45 1.02 1.63 0.40
HR/
DAY 1
2
3
4
5
... 361 362 363 364 365
Example:
th
98
%ile of Daily Max
ONE YEAR, SINGLE RECEPTOR, SORTED (8760 concentrations)
Daily
56 9.01 6.45 9.02 9.00...
8.68 8.38 6.90 8.66 9.65
Max
25 8.36 4.61 5.53 8.84...
4.94 7.65 5.61 7.95 6.15
9.65 =MAX(A1:A365)
86 7.25 3.56 5.02 5.58...
3.92 6.92 2.70 3.50 3.70
9.02
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
9.01
.
.
62 4.91 2.94 4.28 5.22...
3.41 6.58 2.49 2.29 1.559.00
96 1.48 2.18 1.32 2.73...
1.74 3.84 1.30 2.04 0.838.68
93 1.12 1.34 0.63 1.45...
0.00 0.45 1.02 1.63 0.408.66
→
8.38
2
3
4
5
...
361
362
363
364
365 6.90 98th %tile (H8H)
6.56
6.45
H8H: Shortcut to Daily Max?
EXAMPLE: ONE YEAR, SINGLE RECEPTOR (8760 concentrations)
Daily
1
3.25 8.36 2.94 0.63 9.00 ... 0.00 6.58 6.90Max
2.29 0.40
Max 4.28 2.73 ... 3.92 6.92 5.619.65
2
2.62 1.12 6.45
3.50
=MAX(A1:A365)
0.83
9.65 9.02
=MAX(A1:X365)
3
0.93 7.25 4.61
8.84 ... 1.74 7.65 1.029.02
8.66 3.70
.
.
. 9.02.
.
.
.
.
.
. 9.01
.
.
.
9.01 1.32 1.45 ... 8.68 0.45 2.499.00
22 6.56 4.91 1.34
2.04 6.15
9.00 5.53 5.22 ... 3.41 3.84 1.30 1.63 9.65
23 1.96 9.01 2.18
8.68
8.84 5.02 5.58 ... 4.94 8.38 2.708.66
24 2.86 1.48 3.56
7.95 1.55
HR/
8.68
8.38
DAY 1
2
3
4
5
...
361
362
363
364 365
8.66
6.90 98th %tile (H8H)
8.38 98th %tile (H8H)
6.56
8.36
6.45
7.95
→
Nitrogen Dioxide
1-hr NAAQS Implementation Timeline:
MILESTONE
DATE
U.S. EPA Federal Register Notice –
Final Rule
February 9, 2010
Effective Date
April 12, 2010
State Designation
Recommendations Due to EPA *
January, 2011
Final Designations by the U.S. EPA *
January, 2012
New NO2 Monitoring Network
January 1, 2013
Nonattainment Re-Designations
January 2016/2017
Attainment Date
January 2021/2022
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
Sulfur Dioxide
Primary Standards
Pollutant
Sulfur
Dioxide
Level
Averaging
Time
0.03 ppm
Annual
0.14 ppm
24-hour
0.075 ppm
1-hour
Secondary Standards
Level
Averaging
Time
0.5 ppm
3-hour
Under Review with NO2
June 2, 2010 U.S. EPA:
• Strengthened the NAAQS standard for SO2 to include a 1-hr standard of
75 ppb and revoked the existing annual and 24-hour primary SO2
standards (effective August 23, 2010).
The secondary SO2 standard is currently being reviewed by the U.S. EPA as part
of a joint review of the welfare effects associated with SO2 and NO2.
Sulfur Dioxide
Proposed Form of the 1-hour Standard
• The 3-year average of the 99th percentile of the annual
distribution daily maximum 1-hour average concentration in a
year, or
• The 3-year average of the 4th highest daily maximum 1-hour
average concentration in a year
Sulfur Dioxide
Potential NAAQS Implementation Timeline:
MILESTONE
DATE
U.S. EPA Signature –
Final Rule
June 2, 2010
State Designation
Recommendations
Due to the U.S. EPA
June, 2011
Final Designations by the
U.S. EPA
June, 2012
SIPs Due
Attainment Date
Winter, 2014
Summer, 2017
Comparison of SO2 standards
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Opinion: 24-hr standard has highest
level of difficulty for pulp mills to meet
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0.14 ppm 24-hr NAAQS; compare to
0.05-0.10 ppm, 1-hr average basis
If you struggled to meet the SO2 24hour standard, you will likely struggle
with the proposed 1-hr standard
Example from past mill exercise
S/
803.6 µg/m3 = 0.31 ppm, vs 0.075 ppm standard
PM2.5 modeling – Challenges
and Solutions (1 of 2)

Three approaches for NAAQS compliance
1) Model project (facility for greenfield) impacts
< SIL
2) Model impacts from total facility (H1H) plus
neighbors plus background < NAAQS
3) Demonstrate that your project’s (facility’s)
impacts insignificant at any NAAQS
exceedances

With large neighbors, Option 1 often most
expedient
PM2.5 modeling – Challenges
and Solutions (2 of 2)
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

Tighten emission limits based on source tests
of similar sources elsewhere
Stack height and diameter changes
Particle size distributions wherever possible to
limit PM2.5 emission rates


Especially challenging to do for inventory sources
Separate modeling of conceivable scenarios
1-hr NO2 NAAQS modeling –
Challenges and Solutions (1 of 2)

NOx to NO2 conversion – three options:
1) Tier 1: Assume all NOx is NO2
2) Tier 2: Assume 75% of NOx is NO2
3) Tier 3 (requires US EPA approval):
1) Ozone Limiting Method (OLM) – limits amount of
NO2 conversion by available ambient ozone or
2) Plume Volume Molar Ratio Method (PVMRM) –
limits conversion of NO2 by amount of ambient
ozone that is able to mix into the NOx plume on
an hourly basis
1-hr NO2 NAAQS modeling –
Challenges and Solutions (2 of 2)


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Improvements for PM2.5 compliance may have cobenefits
Option 3 for NAAQS compliance (see earlier slide)
can be useful – demonstrate insignificant impacts
around receptors exceeding NO2 NAAQS
“Cause or contribute” analysis (spatial and
temporal) important on handful of NAAQS-exceeding
receptors


Limit hours of operation for emergency generators/fire
pumps
Use of presumed NO2 SIL
Lessons learned


For PM2.5 and NO2 at least, skip the initial
BACT wrangling; the new emissions rate
driver will be the modeling
Fire pumps/generators not “insignificant”?




not exempt from modeling per EPA
Silver lining: modeling realities may drive
smaller, even non-PSD, increases
For SIL comparison, leverage decreases
wherever possible
Other consideration: Stage construction /
operation with Tier 3 (e.g., PVMRM)
Questions?
Trinity Contact Information
Erin Riepe
Consultant – Atlanta, GA
[email protected]
Phone: 678-441-9977
http://www.breeze-software.com/
Phone: 972-661-8881