Transcript Enrollment Planning: Where do we go from here?

2005 NYSAIS Spring Admission
Program
School Image, Marketing, Board
Reporting
Presenter:
Christine Baker
Principal of the Baker Group
April 28, 2005
Goals for 2005 NYSAIS Presentation:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Acknowledge the role the Admission Director plays or should
play in the strategic discussions of the school.
Discuss the essential components to assessing your school’s
image and approach to marketing.
Provide a broader context for the demographic and economic
trends impacting enrollment and admission activity.
Recommend an approach to data collection and ways to
generate useful admission and enrollment reports.
Determine opportunities for shared information and
collaboration.
Present and discuss ways to create effective Board Reports.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Informing Trustees and the Head of
School on Research

As a school attempts to forecast its’ future,
one must develop strategies that anticipate
where the greatest changes are likely to
occur and what they are likely to be, in order
to take advantage of new realities and to
convert turbulence or uncertainty into
opportunity.
-Susan S. Stone
Strategic Planning for Independent Schools
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
For traditional Independent School
Admission Directors, it will take a mind
shift... from gatekeeper to strategic thinker.

The role of the Admissions Director in an independent school’s
strategic thinking and planning process is more important, (with
the exception of the Head of School), than any other person on
campus.

Because all discussions need to come back to competing goals
and financial limitations, be prepared to swim upstream. You
sometimes have to be the lone ranger- or a “positive rebel” to
figure out a way to get the respect and time you deserve to
present the research you have compiled.

It takes at least 2-3 years to build the infrastructure of research
needed to be convincing to Heads of School and Boards.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Understanding your school’s image
and marketing your institution...
Laying the groundwork
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Examples: Marketing Models to help
focus your planning and resources
1. Marketing 101- The 4 P’s
2. Enrollment Management 101- 3 M Model
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Marketing 101
4 P’s of Marketing




Product- Education and growth experience offered
Price- Investment in process and in the experience
Place-Campus location (proximity to home), facilities
Promotion-Taking your message to the market
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Enrollment Management Model
3M Marketing Model
Research
Messages
Media
Markets
How to link message to markets?
Mission
Combination of:
Distinctive Programs
People (staff, alumni, faculty, etc.)
Image or Identity
Technology (computers, including micros,
$, Quality, Size
word processing, telemarketing, satellite
Environment, Location
teleconferencing, CD’s video discs)
“Are there people there like me?”Publications, Advertising
Who is best match?
Which market segments will be most
responsive?
Segmentation by:
Geography
High Income
Ed. Attainment
School Age Children
Ed Expenditures
3 M Model- Maguire Associates
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
“Find your most promotable
competitive edge, turn it into a
powerful message, and deliver it to the
right prospects.”
The Ultimate Marketing Plan
Written by Dan S Kennedy
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Definition of Enrollment Management

Definition:
“A process that influences the size, shape and the
characteristics of a student body by directing institutional
efforts in marketing, recruitment, and admissions- as well as
pricing and financial aid. In addition, the process exerts a
significant influence on academic advising, the institutional
research agenda, orientation, retention studies and student
services. From a broader organizational perspective, the
process inevitably leads to issues of mission and goals
clarification and budgetary decision making.”
-Don Hossler
Admissions should not be the only office driving institutional research
and marketing.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Where do you start ? (Understanding your
school’s image and marketing your institution... )
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Assess your school’s infrastructure
Develop a strategy for institutional
research
Build a research core
Prioritize research for assessing your
school’s Image
Clarify messaging
Define desired markets
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
1. Assess your school’s infrastructure





HISTORY- School Mission. What does that say about your
past, present future image? What types of students have you
attracted in the past? Where are you presently? What types of
students do you hope to enroll? Enrollment statistics binder).
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY- How are you managing the
information available to you? Is your current software working
for you? Does it do what you need it to do?
STAFFING & BUDGET... Do you have the resources currently
to do what you need to do?
ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT... Is the concept understood
on your campus?
RESEARCH.. What do you know already about your school’s
value and image... internally and externally?
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
2. Develop a strategy for institutional
research
Research should include:
 Admission Research (inquiry, accepted student,
tour/visit postcard)
 Institutional Research (Attrition Study, Research on
Current and Past Parents, Current Students , Faculty
and Staff, Alumni, Communications Audit)
 Market Research ie.,positioning information(Benchmarking of other schools, Overlap school
comparisons, Publications audit)
 Demographic Research (Sending communities, gender,
socio-economic and racial diversity)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
3. Build a Research Core

Chart funnel trends at your institution

Compile enrollment history (i.e. school composite trends,
retention statistics)

Research peer schools

Familiarize yourself with recent independent school research

Examine usefulness and feasibility of college research
resources

Identify useful demographic sources (NAIS, Dept of Ed,
National Center for Ed. Stats.)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
4. Prioritize Research for Assessing
Your School’s Image
A. Internal Research
Faculty / Staff Survey
Trustees Survey
Parent Research
Current Student Research
Alumni Research
Communications Audit
B.
External Market Research
Prospect (Sending schools, Ed. Consults, Overlap schools)
Inquiry- non app, Interview non app
Admitted Student
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Image Question for all Constituents
The following adjectives and phrases might be used to describe an independent school.
Please circle all of the adjectives that you feel describe Baker Academy of 2005.
Diverse
Personal
Academic
Supportive
Athletic
Engaging
Family school
Intense
Busy
Stressed
Too big
Socially conscious
Social
Caring
Boring
Exciting
Artsy
Warm
Friendly
Challenging
Fun
Expensive
Spiritual
Conservative
Too small
Nurturing
Happy
Preppy
Intellectual
Comfortable
Liberal
Snobbish
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
5. Clarify Messaging




“Independent Schools Make a Difference Every Day”
(NAIS messaging)
“Making the Choice of a Lifetime” (NAIS tagline for
parents) Yet... Is the message getting out there?
What are the strengths of your school you would like
to have conveyed?
What is your school’s distinctive message- when
positioned against public, other privates, etc?
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
The biggest messaging obstacle for NAIS schools...
What percentage of the population can even hear that
message?

While the ideal for all independent schools is to be accessible and
inclusive- the public perception and high tuition suggest the opposite.
 Affordability index suggests less than 9% can afford day
tuition, less than 4% can afford boarding
 NAIS Public Opinion Poll (39% elitist, 33% “intimidating”)
 What does your school do to accommodate/welcome
prospective students inquiring/visiting/applying? Web site
ease? How strict are your deadlines? Instructive signage on
campus?
 NAIS Graphs on median tuition, financial aid availability, SSS.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
6. Define desired markets
(Map Point slides to follow)

Identify markets that with potential for high
return.
–
–
–
–
–
Communities of current families, past parents and
alumni
Proximity to home
High income
Education Attainment
School Age Children
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Summary: Building a Research Core




Create a readily accessible notebook organized by strategic
enrollment issue including internal and external research (i.e.
charted funnel stats, trends w/ school composite, pricing and
financial aid, retention statistics etc. )
Identify useful demographic sources (www.NAIS.org) to collect
national trend information and access governmental sources for
regional and local trend data and forecasts (US Census
Bureau com, US Dept of Ed, Dept of Ed by state)
Research peer schools
Examine usefulness and feasibility of college research
resources
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
US Teenagers projected for 2005
New England Teens projected for 2005
14,600,000
2,400,000
25% who would consider private school
Research
Full pay families- 4% bdg/ 8% day
25% who are Strong Enough Students
Outreach
& Promotion
Inquiries & Leads
Recruitment
Interviews / Visits
Applicants
Evaluation
Marketing
Yield
Retention
Accepts
Enrolled
Alumni
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
The “Ultimate Marketing” Checklist








Being clearly understood.
Carefully and thoroughly
eliminate all assumptions.
The guts to ask for action every
time, in every presentation
Tailoring and delivering your
message to the right market.
Marketing messages developed
with the understanding that
recipients will be stubbornly
reluctant to believe them.
Pictures that prove your case.
Image congruency.
Constant change.





Capture callers’ identity and
specific interests and market to
them.
Use your best unique selling
proposition.
Make the customer feel
important, appreciated and
respected.
Developing new products and
services for existent customers
instead of getting new customers
for existent products and
services.
Excellence.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Trends
1
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Numbers of Births in the United States 1951-2011
4,500
4,3001
4,100
3,900

1
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
Actual
Projected
National Center for Education
Statistics 2001
11
20
08
20
05
20
02
20
99
19
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
19
84
19
81
19
78
19
75
19
72
19
69
19
66
19
63
19
60
19
57
19
54
19
19
51
2,500
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population
Estimates for the 1990s," January 2001, and "Annual Projections of the
Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and U.S. Department
of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS),
Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: United States,
various years, National Vital Statistics Reports; and unpublished tabulations.
(This table was prepared May 2001.)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Enrollment Projections
Elementary and secondary enrollment
• increased 19 percent between 1988
and 2001
• is projected to increase 5 percent
between 2001 and 2013
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Enrollment Projections
Grades K-8
Enrollment in kindergarten through grade 8:
• increased 19 percent between 1988 and 2001
• is projected to increase 5 percent
between 2001 and 2013
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Enrollment Projections
Grades 9-12
Enrollment in grades 9-12:
• increased 17 percent between 1988
and 2001
• is projected to increase 4 percent
between 2001 and 2013
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Enrollment Projections
Private Schools
Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools:
• increased 18 percent between 1988 and 2001
• is projected to increase 7 percent between 2001 and
2013
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Enrollment Projections
Grades 9-12
Enrollment in grades 9-12:
• increased 17 percent between 1988
and 2001
• is projected to increase 4 percent
between 2001 and 2013
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Enrollment Projections
Private Schools
Enrollment in private elementary and secondary
schools:
• increased 18 percent between 1988 and 2001
• is projected to increase 7 percent between 2001 and
2013
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Regional Enrollment Projections
Between 2001 and 2013, public elementary and
secondary enrollment is projected to:
•
•
•
•
increase 13 percent in the West
increase 4 percent in the South
decrease 2 percent in the Northeast
increase slightly in the Midwest
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Enrollment Projections
by State
Expected 4 % national increase in public school enrollment between 2001 and
2013 . Increases are projected for 30 states for 2001-2013. Largest increases
projected for:
Alaska (17 %),
Hawaii (16 %)
California (16 %)
Idaho (15%),
New Mexico (14.9%)
Nevada (13.8%)
Utah (12.7%)
Arizona (12%)
Texas (11.2%)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Enrollment Projections-by State
Projected percent increases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, in
Northeast 2001 to 2013







New York -3.5
Vermont -3.2
Conn. -2.8%
Maine -2.4%
Massachusetts -2.4%
Penn -1.9%
New Hampshire -0.2%


New Jersey + 2.5%
Rhode Island +1.9 %
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Independent School
Trends
1994-2004
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
NAIS Enrollment Trends
ENROLLMENT CHANGES SINCE 1994
6.5
All Schools
T
y
p
e
s

o
f
S
c
h
o
o
l
s
18.3
1
17.2
Day-Boarding
26.3
3.0
Day
14.9
8.2
Boarding-Day
9.2
-11.5
Boarding
-15.0
-10.1
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Percent Changes
Boarding
Boarding-Day
Day
Day-Boarding
1999-2004
-11.5
1994-2004
-10.1
8.2
3.0
17.2
6.5
9.2
14.9
26.3
18.3
1994-2004
All Schools
1999-2004
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
NAIS Enrollment Trends
ENROLLMENT CHANGES BY GRADE SINCE 1994. ALL GRADES
25
21.4
20.7
21.3
20.9
19.8
19.2
20
17.4
13.7
15
10.6
Percent Changes
10
11.9
8.5
9.3
8.4
7.4
6.2
5.5
3.8
5
8.9
7.0
6.5
6.2
10.3
9.6
5.3
5.0
5.0
4.0
0
0
0
-5
-5.7
-10
-12.4
-15
-20
-15.5
Grade
PS
K
1st.
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
PG
94-04
0
3.8
6.2
6.5
7.0
8.5
10.6
13.7
20.7
17.4
19.2
21.4
21.3
19.8
20.9
-12.4
99-04
0
-5.7
5.5
5.0
5.3
4.0
5.0
6.2
9.6
7.4
8.9
9.3
10.3
8.4
11.9
-15.5
94-04
99-04
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
NAIS Enrollment Trends
AVERAGE ATTRITION CHANGES 1998-2003
25.0
20.3
20.0
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
15.0
10.0
8.0
7.6
6.5
6.5
4.8
4.8
4.6
3.7
C
h
a
n
g
e
s
5.0
2.5
1.7
3.7
0.0
-1.9
-5.0
-4.7
-7.2
-10.0
Boarding
Boarding-Day
Day
Day-Boarding
All Schools
Day Students
2.5
-7.2
3.7
20.3
3.7
Boarding Students
4.6
4.8
6.5
1.7
6.5
All Students
-4.7
-1.9
7.6
8.0
4.8
Types of Schools
Day Students
Boarding Students
All Students
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
NAIS Admission Ratios
Admissions Ratios for 1998 and 2003
R
a
t
i
o
s
p
e
r
18
16 .4
16 .1
16
16
14 .1
14
12 .6
12
10 .6
9 .8
10
9 .4
8 .3
E
n
r
o
l
l
e
e
7 .7
8
6
3 .9
3 .6
4
3 .7
3 .1
3
1.9
2
1.7
1.6
1.9
3
1.4
2 .7
1.4
1.6
1.5
3 .1
3
2 .7
1.5
1.5
0
Boarding
Boarding-Day
Day
Day-Boarding
All Schools
Inquiries 98
16.4
14.1
8.3
12.6
9.8
Applications 98
3.6
3
3.1
2.7
3
Acceptances 98
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.5
Inquiries 03
16
16.1
7.7
10.6
9.4
T ypes of S chools
Inquiries 98
Applications 98
Acceptances 98
Inquiries 03
Applications 03
Acceptances 03
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Other Trends
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Charter Schools-National Facts




Almost 3,000 charter schools are operating in 36 states and the
District of Columbia, serving 650,000 students.
First charter school founded in 1991 in Minnesota.
At the start of the 2002-03 school year, 393 new charter schools
opened nationwide.
Most important reasons for founding a charter school:




Alternative vision for schooling (58%)
Serve a special population (23%)
Gain autonomy (9%)
Top 5 charter schools states:



Arizona (468)
California (452)
Florida (232)
Texas (228)
Michigan (186)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
SSAT Takers
1995/96 to 2003/04
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Home schooling

The “home-schooled” population continues to grow.
According to the National Center for Educational
Statistics and the National Household Education
Survey (NHES), there were 360,000 students
home-schooled in 1994. In 1999 the same survey
reported 790,000 home-schooled students. The
National Home Education Research Institute
reports that there were over 1.7 to 2.1 million
students being home-schooled in 2002-03.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Charter Schools-National Facts




Almost 3,000 charter schools are operating in 36 states and the
District of Columbia, serving 650,000 students.
First charter school founded in 1991 in Minnesota.
At the start of the 2002-03 school year, 393 new charter schools
opened nationwide.
Most important reasons for founding a charter school:




Alternative vision for schooling (58%)
Serve a special population (23%)
Gain autonomy (9%)
Top 5 charter schools states:



Arizona (468)
California (452)
Florida (232)
Texas (228)
Michigan (186)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
National Pricing and Financial Aid
Trends
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
NAIS Pricing Trends
MEDIAN TUITION PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1994
45
42.1
39.8
40
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
s
34.1
35
30.5
30
21.2
25
17.4
15.6
20
14.1
15
10
5
0
Day 94-04
Day 99-04
Boarding7 94-04
Boarding7 99-04
6th
42.1
21.2
39.8
14.1
12th
34.1
17.4
30.5
15.6
Types of Schools
6th
12th
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
NAIS Financial Aid Trends
FINANCIAL AID GRANT & STUDENTS 1994-2004
42.9
41.7
45.0
39.2
35.9
40.0
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
35.0
28.3
30.0
25.0
19.4
20.0
15.0
C
h
a
n
g
e
10.0
3.5
1.4
0.6
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-5.2
Boarding
Boarding-Day
Day
Day-Boarding
All Schools
Grant 94-04
19.4
42.9
41.7
35.9
39.2
%Students 94-04
28.3
-5.2
1.4
3.5
0.6
Types of Schools
Grant 94-04
%Students 94-04
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Rise in Median Tuitions at
NAIS Day Schools
14000
12000
10000
8000
Tuition
Indexed w/ CPI
6000
4000
2000
20
01
20
00
19
98
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
0
19
99
"Access and Affordability",
NAIS
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Rise in Median Tuitions at
NAIS Boarding Schools
24000
20000
16000
Indexed w/ CPI
Tuition
12000
8000
4000
"Access and Affordability",
NAIS
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
0
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Shifting Aid-Applicant Pool
10
12.5
12.6
18.1
17.1
17.2
17.9
17.6
22.5
21.3
20.3
19.8
11.8
12.4
15
10.8
10.3
10.2
10.1
20
18.7
18.4
25
20.2
21.7
30
15.4
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
21
22.2
35
5
0
0-20K
20-40K
40-60K
60-80K
80-100K
100K+
Income Range
Source: NAIS School and Student Service for Financial Aid (SSS) processing system data
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Average Award Levels
8000
7000
Avg Awd--Need Based
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Need
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
No Need the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Percent of Enrolled Students Granted Aid
20
18
16
% Awarded
14
12
10
Need
No Need
8
6
4
2
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Income Distribution
(U.S. Families)
Under $25K
$25K - $50K
$50K - $75K
$75K - $100K
$100K+
22.6%
28.3%
21.2%
12.7%
15.2%
Source: Current Population Survey: Annual Demographic Survey, March Supplement,
U.S. Census Bureau website
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Wealthiest American Families
The lower end of the income range for the
wealthiest 5% of US families
(in constant 2000 dollars)
1980
1990
2000
% chg since ’80
$109,436
$131,425
$160,250
46.4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau web page, www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/fo1.html
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
2002 Consumer Spending
(in % of total expenditures for households $70K and over)
Education
1.8%
Alcohol & Tobacco
1.3%
Other
6.9%
Health Care
3.8%
Housing
31.0%
Entertainment
5.2%
Apparel
4.6%
Personal
Insurance/Pension
15.2%
Food
11.9%
Transportation
18.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure
Survey, 2002
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Ways to define desired markets
Demographic and Economic
Forecasting of 8 NYSAIS Markets
(Map Point 2004)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
As a Director of Admission- when do you need to take the
time to conduct demographic research?




You are a new admission director of a
school and need to understand
where, and to what degree, you
should invest your recruitment budget
and staff energies?
Your school is considering expanding
enrollment and the question has
been posed to you…is this new
larger capacity sustainable?
You are adding a significant program
to your school (adding a lower
school, an after care program, a
summer camp, etc.).
Your Board is considering changing
the tuition in a significant way.


Your school is launching a
strategic plan.
The local economy (or
demography, or sociography)
appears to be shifting, but you
are uncertain as to the extent
or the meaning of this shift?
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Samples of 8 NYSAIS markets




Upper Manhattan
Long Island
Eastern NY/W Ct
Greenwich/Stamford




Lower Manhattan/
Brooklyn
Buffalo
Rochester
Albany
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Demographic Characteristics Analyzed for 8 NYSAIS
areas





Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
Projected Household Income for 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree):
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care
Source: Map Point
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Upper Manhattan High Incomes projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Upper Manhattan Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree): Upper Manhattan
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Upper Manhattan
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Long Island High Incomes projected for 2005
(Gray Areas Exceed $200,000)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Long Island Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree): Long Island
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Long Island
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Western CT / Eastern NY High Incomes projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
West CT / East NY Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Greenwich / Stamford High Incomes projected for 2005
(Gray Areas Exceed $200,000)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Greenwich Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree): Greenwich
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Greenwich
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Lower Manhattan High Incomes projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Lower Manhattan Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Lower Manhattan Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Lower Manhattan
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Buffalo High Incomes projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Buffalo Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree): Buffalo
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Buffalo
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Rochester High Incomes projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Rochester Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree): Rochester
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Rochester
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Albany High Incomes projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Albany Population Under Age 14 Projected for 2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Educational Attainment (Graduate Degree): Albany
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Projected Tuition Expenditures 2007
for Nursery School & Day Care: Albany
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Presenting to your Board
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Possible Topics




Admission Report **
Access and Affordability**
Marketing Goals
Internal and or External Research Results
**Slides included to provide foundation
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Developing an outline

Step 1... Analyze the questions being asked. What is the purpose of the
presentation? What are your needs to enroll the students you think the
school deserves therefore, what are the points you want to make? What
are the outcomes you are hoping for? Fine tune the questions you want
answers.

Step 2 Define the scope of the data collection and/or necessary research
(in house info, use NAIS.org resource pages).

Step 3 What external factors may be affecting you? When? How?
(National% Local Economy, Demographics)
What internal factors may
affect you? When? How? (Change in Leadership, Strategic Plan, Buildings
Projects, Budget Constraints, etc.) Anticipate questions.

Step 4 Provide information about how are you doing compared to your
peer schools?. Produce comparative information on other schools.

Step 5 Add a personal dimension to your presentation...Review the
positive impact a proposed initiative would have on the school
community... Balance the use of statistics and anecdotal examples.
Admission Report for the Board
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Collecting the Data & Necessary
Research

National Trends


Demographic overview, Economic forecasting, Census
information, NAIS statistics, Education info,
Regional Trends

Shared data, Census information, State Dept. of Education
Statistics

Benchmarking of other schools

School Specific Activity/Trends

Funnel overview, funnel conversion rates, research survey
results, current enrollment/school composition, attrition
research
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Admission and Enrollment
Research
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
What are the areas to research?




Admissions
Financial Aid
Tuition and Pricing
Attrition
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Admissions
–
–
–
–
–
–
Inquiries
Applicants
Admits
Matriculants
Refusals
Matriculant/Refusals
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Financial Aid
–
–
–
–
–
–
Demand
Average Grant and Loan and Rate of Increase
Returning Student Budget
New Student Budget
Old/New Student Budget
Critical Masses Within the Budget
(Top Candidates, Boarding/Day, Faculty/Staff, Alumni,
Students of Color, etc.)
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Tuition/Pricing
–
–
–
–
–
Rate of Increase
Impact on Applications
Impact on Financial Aid Applications
Increase in Average Grant/Loan
Number of Top Candidates Whose
Need Is Not Met
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Attrition



Number of students not returning
% of students not returning
Reasons
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Who can help? (me)





Member of Office
Member of Admission Committee
Member of Math Department
College or graduate students
Outside Consultant
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
What Scenarios Need
Consideration?




Individual Institution
Peer Group
Time Frame (1, 2, 5, 10 and 15 year periods)
External Perspective/Outside Consultant
– Prospective Students/Parents
– Admitted Students/Parents
– Alumni
– Sending Schools/Receiving Schools
– College Admission Counselors
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
What are the variables to consider?











Gender
Boarding/Day Status
Grade
Geography
Top Candidates
Students of Color
Alumni
Siblings
International
Financial Aid Applicants/Recipients
Type of School
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Inexpensive Research Projects
“Keep it simple but, not simplistic”










Inquiry-Non Applicant Questionnaire
Tour/Interview Evaluation Postcard
Interview-Non Applicant Phone Survey
Publications Audit-Focus groups with yours and other schools
publications
Peer School positioning information
Faculty questionnaire
Current Parent Survey
Current Student Survey
Exit Interviews with students leaving/paper survey for their parents
Admitted Student Questionnaire for enrolling and non-enrolling students
([email protected])
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Admission Report
Defining Admission Quality and Success on
a Variety of Levels










Bottom line-net tuition
Admission Numbers-funnel statistics, application growth, acceptance rate, financial aid
allocation, yield rate, school composite goals attained
Quality of Enrolling Students-Admission Rating, Average SSAT or other test scores,
Interview rating, Diversity (Geo, socio-econ, Student of color Intl, Special Interest),
Anecdotes
Quality of Admission Process (through surveys, comments)- timely, personal, friendly,
responsive, helpful, fair, comfortable, efficient.
Enrollment Status-Retention Statistics, Faculty Satisfaction, Enrollment Success stories,
Student community tempo.
Message effectiveness (Marketing)-Admission publications, admission message through
non-print communication, community buy-in to marketing needs
Admission Staff- Office morale, Staff autonomy and dependability, staff retention
School Community Connection- (“enrollment management”)- Head of School
relationship, Regular meetings with Dean of Students & Academic Dean, Student
involvement in admissions activities, Alumni/current parent involvement in admission
activities, admission staff involvement in community
Professional Development- Contributions to professional world, on-going connection to
colleagues at other schools, conference attendance, staff development (includes support
staff)
Personal Assessment-Health and well being of the Director & Staff, gut feeling of how
well the year went, Self measurement of success of admissions
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Baker Academy
Admission History
Sept. '99-Sept. "04
900
800
700
Inquiries
600
Applications
500
Accept
400
Matriculants
300
200
100
0
Sept. '00
Sept. '01
Sept. '02
Sept. '03
Sept. '04
Baker Academy
Inquiry to Application Conversion Rate
9/99-9/04
40%
37%
35%
31%
30%
31%
29%
28%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Sept. '00
Sept. '01
Sept. '02
Sept. '03
Sept. '04
Entering School Year
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Baker Academy
Acceptance Rate
9/99-9/04
90%
82%
79%
80%
70%
60%
50%
54%
49%
44%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sept. '00
Sept. '01
Sept. '02
Entering School Year
Sept. '03
Sept. '04
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Baker Academy
Matriculation Rate (Yield)
9/99-9/04
78%
77%
76%
74%
74%
73%
72%
72%
70%
68%
68%
66%
64%
62%
Sept. '00
Sept. '01
Sept. '02
Sept. '03
Sept. '04
Entering School Year
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Ba t t l e c r e e k S c hool
Conv e r si on Ra t e s
19 9 5 - 2 0 0 4
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Inqui r i es to Inter vi ews
Inqui r i es to Appl i cati ons
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Admission Activity 2001-2003
Enroll
150
250
Apps
200
Accept
Coatesville
BrynMawr
Exton
Berwyn
Norristown
Chester Springs
Phoenixville
Springfield
Broomall
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Downingtown Inquiries
Media
Wayne
Havertown
Drexel Hill
Newtown Square
Malvern
West Chester
0
Inquiries
300
100
50
Admitted Student Research
Results
Examples of Findings
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
School Images
At least 60% of admitted students consider Battle creek
School
2001
Academic 88%
2002
Academic 85%
2003
Academic 82%
2004
Academic 86%
Challenging 80% Challenging 80% Challenging 77% Challenging 83%
Athletic 67%
Friendly 75%
Athletic 71%
Prestigious 76%
Friendly 66%
Intellectual 69%
Intellectual 68%
Friendly 73%
Intellectual 62%
Fun 64%
Friendly 66%
Athletic 72%
Prestigious 59%
Athletic 63%
Prestigious 65%
Fun 69%
Prestigious 59%
Intellectual 67%
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Battle creek School Images
Non enrolling students marked the following images 20 more
frequently
2001
2002
2003
2004
Isolated
Preppy
Isolated
Preppy
Conservative
Snobbish
Preppy
Isolated
Preppy
Snobbish
Snobbish
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
First Contact with Battle creek School
2001
2002
2003
2004
Parent 31%
Parent 31%
Parent 32%
Parent 34%
Friend 21%
Friend 15%
Friend 18%
Friend 22%
Sibling 8%
Sibling 7%
Sibling 8%
Sibling 8%
School Counselor
5%
Grad of School
4%
Grad of School
7%
School
Counselor 6%
Grad of School
7%
School Counselor
7%
School
Counselor 5%
Current
Student 5%
Current Student
4%
Current
Student 3%
Current Student
4%
Grad of School
3%
Comparable Importance and
Rating of School
More Important and Battle creek School Rated Higher
2001
2002
2003
2004
Quality of academic Quality of
facilities
academic facilities
Academic
reputation
Quality of
academic facilities
Academic reputation
Personal attention
to students
Quality of faculty
Personal attention
to students
Quality of faculty
College placement
record
Variety of courses
Quality of faculty
Personal
attention to
students
Academic
reputation
Variety of
courses
Quality of school
life
College
placement record
Quality of faculty
Academic
reputation
Sense of
community
Comparable Importance and
Rating of School
More Important and Battle creek School Rated Lower or Equal
2001
2002
2003
2004
Quality of social
life
Quality of
residential life
Quality of social
life
Quality of
social life
Sense of
community
Sense of
community
Sense of
community
College
placement
record
Quality of
residential life
Personal
attention to
students
Quality of
residential life
Sources of Battle creek School Information
(Admitted Student Research- ISAS)
Admission Packet/Form
Campus Visit/Interview
Post admit contact
School Publications
School Website
Email from school
Staff visits to community
Financial Aid communication
Campus visit after admission
Contact with students
Contact with teachers
Contact with coaches
Contact with graduates
2001
95%
87%
91%
90%
71%
50%
41%
29%
60%
74%
55%
55%
36%
2002
93%
83%
86%
87%
78%
52%
45%
35%
60%
71%
62%
58%
49%
2003
95%
84%
91%
90%
79%
55%
43%
28%
64%
71%
56%
59%
34%
2004
95%
90%
89%
93%
78%
67%
48%
29%
64%
72%
68%
68%
41%
Access and Affordability Report
for the Board
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Developing a strategic and dynamic
presentation on Tuition/Pricing/ Financial
Aid/Accessibility

Step 1...What are the questions?... Fine tune the questions you want answers.
What do tuition and financial aid trends at your school suggest?
–
Demand
–
Average Grant and Loan and Rate of Increase
–
Returning Student Budget
–
New Student Budget
–
Old/New Student Budget
–
Critical Masses Within the Budget
(Top Candidates, Boarding/Day, Faculty/Staff, Alumni, Students of Color, etc.)

Step 2 How are you doing compared to our peer schools? (AEBOPS). Produce comparative bar
graphs of tuition rates, increases, financial aid of overlap schools.

Step 3 Define the scope of the necessary research with support from the NAIS “Financial Aid
Management” resource pages

Step 4 What external factors may affect you? When? How? (National% Local Economy,
Demographics)
What internal factors may affect you? When? How? (Change in Leadership,
Strategic Plan, Buildings Projects, Budget Constraints, etc.)

Step 5 Add a personal dimension to your presentation...Review the positive impact financial aid
has had on your school community... Use statistics or anecdotal examples of top academic
students, leadership positions etc. held by FA recipients
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Specific Points to be made during a
presentation on Tuition/Pricing/ Financial
Aid/Accessibility












Present NAIS Trends on Tuitions/Financial Aid
Provide regional data sharing of tuitions and Fin Aid increases
Benchmark other school’s tuitions, % of students on fin. Aid, financial aid
budget (include your school’s info)
Graph your school’s tuition past 15 years
Graph your school’s % of students on financial aid
Graph the number of current families new to financial aid
Graph the profile of financial aid app. by income band
Graph the # of applicants who did not qualify for aid (DNQ)- and whether they
enrolled or not
Bdg schools-Graph 10 year trends of % of applicant pool who are domestic
non-aid applicants
Highlight % of your top admits-matriculants who are financial aid recipients.
Profile graduating class and determine financial aid recipient % of leaders, cum
laude, highly and most selective college enrolment,
Present a comparison of the bottom 15% of full pay admits with top 15% of WL
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Parting advice





Determine with the Head of School and or Chair of Board as to
what is expected/hoped for?
Review with the Head your outline/plan and the final draft of
your presentation.
Send your report in advance of the Board meeting to give
Trustees time to review your report prior to the meeting.
Begin by asking for their reactions- write their thoughts on a flip
chart and discuss after your presentation (hopefully you will be
able to incorporate the questions and answers into your
presentation).
Be direct and honest.
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Regional Information
Shared Data
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
2.1%
Percent on Aid
Total on Aid
8.0%
Total Aid Budget
5.4%
Day Tuition
6.0%
Boarding Tuition
2.1%
Yield Rate
Admit Rate
Day Girl Apps
-4.0%
Day Boy Apps
12.0%
Boarding Girl Apps
1.9%
Boarding Boy
Apps
3.1%
Completed Apps
Preliminary Apps
2.0%
Interviews
4.0%
Inquiries
Percent Change
New England Schools’ Shared Data
2004-05
Section I - All Schools
9.5%
11.0%
10.0%
7.3%
5.8%
2.6%
1.5%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
-2.0%
-2.3%
-6.0%
-4.5%
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
New England Schools’ Shared Data
2004-05
Section 1 - Day Schools
12.0%
9.5%
10.0%
8.0%
4.8%
4.0%
2.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.0%
1.7%
0.8%
0.0%
-2.0%
-1.7%
-3.2%
-4.0%
-3.0%
Percent on Aid
Total on Aid
Total Aid Budget
Day Tuition
Yield Rate
Admit Rate
Day Girl Apps
Day Boy Apps
Completed Apps
Preliminary Apps
Interviews
-4.9%
-6.0%
Inquiries
Percent Change
6.1%
6.0%
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
-6.0%
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
2.5%
Percent on Aid
1.8%
Total on Aid
8.0%
Total Aid Budget
5.6%
Day Tuition
Boarding Tuition
2.0%
Yield Rate
-2.6%
Admit Rate
-1.2%
Day Girl Apps
3.7%
Day Boy Apps
12.0%
Boarding Girl Apps
10.0%
Boarding Boy
Apps
4.6%
Completed Apps
-2.0%
Preliminary Apps
6.0%
Interviews
4.0%
Inquiries
Percent Change
New England Schools’ Shared Data
2004-05
Section 1 - Boarding Schools
9.5%
11.0%
6.5%
5.6%
4.1%
1.8%
0.0%
-1.9%
-4.0%
-5.0%
New England Schools’ Shared Data
5 year overview
Inquiries
Percent Change 2000 - 2004
7.1%
6.8%
6.7%
Percent Change
4.4%
1.8%
1.9%
All Schools
Boarding Schools
Day Schools
3.7%
3.1%
2.8%
1.7%
-0.6%
-2.1%
-1.0%
-1.4%
-3.7%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
New England Schools’ Shared Data
5 year overview
Completed Applications
Percent Change 2000 - 2004
All Schools
12.2%
Boarding Schools
11.0%
Day Schools
Percent Change
11.4%
4.1%
2.2%
2.4%
1.6%
2.2%
1.3%
2.1%
0.8%
-0.1%
-3.0%
-3.4%
2001
2002
2003
-3.4%
2004
2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
New England Schools’ Shared Data
5 year overview
Admit Rates
Percentage Point Change 2000 - 2004
4.8%
3.1%
2.4%
0.5%
Percent Change
1.5%
1.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-1.9%
-5.0%
-5.7%
All Schools
Boarding Schools
-7.6%
Day Schools
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
New England Schools’ Shared Data
5 year overview
Yield Rates
Percentage Point Change 2000 - 2004
4.7%
4.3%
3.8%
3.6%
Percent Change
3.5%
2.4%
2.8%
2.2%
1.6%
1.3%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
All Schools
Boarding Schools
-0.4%
Day Schools
2001
2002
2003
-0.3%
2004
2005
New England Schools’ Shared Data
5 year overview
Tuition Increase
Percent Change 2000 - 2004
All Schools
Boarding Schools
6.2%
Percent Change
Day Schools
6.1%
5.7%
5.7%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.6%
5.6%
5.2%
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
New England Schools’ Shared Data
5 year overview
Financial Aid Budget
Percent Change 2000 - 2004
9.5%
8.4%
Percent Change
7.3%
6.8%
6.7%
6.3%
7.3%
6.2%
6.7%
6.5%
6.5%
6.2%
5.1%
All Schools
3.7%
3.1%
Boarding Schools
Day Schools
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005
Other Data to Share:


Salary and Benefits of Admission Directors in
region
Admission Office Budgets and Staffing
the Baker Group, NYSAIS 2005