Transcript SLAED Presentation Welfare Reform, Employability and

SLAED Employability Group
Welfare Reform: Challenges for
Employability Partnerships
Andrew Noble and Andrew McGuire
Improvement Service
Thursday 6th June 2013
Introduction
• Welfare Reform- main changes
• Welfare Reform- Financial impact
• Welfare Reform Employability and economic
development – the evidence base
Welfare Reform- the main changestimescale
• 2011
– Benefits uprated in line with CPI rather than RPI
– Local Housing Allowance changes
• 2012
– Child Benefit rates frozen for 3 years
– Reduction to 70% childcare costs claimed through tax credits
– Contributory ESA limited to 1 year
– Lone Parents moved from IS to JSA earlier.
• 2013
– Universal Credit introduced
– Successor arrangements to CTB and Social Fund introduced – Council Tax
Reduction Scheme and Scottish Welfare Fund
– New under-occupancy rules in socially rented sector
– Benefit Cap introduced
– Personal Independence Payment introduced (replacing DLA)
– 1% annual uprating of all benefits for 3 years
Welfare Reform- Financial Impact of
Welfare Reforms to 2014/15
Benefit Area
No. h’holds/indivduals
affected
Estimated loss £m p.a.
Incapacity Benefits (1) (3)
144,000
500
Tax Credits
372,000
300
1% uprating (3)
n.a.
290
Child Benefit
621,000
225
DLA (1) (2)
55,000
165
Local Housing Allowance
80,000
80
Under occupancy
80,000
50
Non-dependent reductions
28,000
30
Benefit Cap
2600
15
Total
1,660
Welfare Reform- Financial Impact of Welfare Reforms
to 2014/15
Benefit Type
Incapacity Benefit
Average loss per
affected
household/
individual (£ p.a)
No. Of Households/ Loss per working
Individuals affected age adult (£p.a.)
per 10,000
3,480
410
145
Tax Credits
810
1,600
85
1% Uprating
n.a
n.a
85
Child Benefit
360
2,660
65
DLA
3,000
160
50
Local Housing
Allowance
1,010
340
25
620
340
15
Non-Dependant
reductions
1,130
120
10
Benefit Cap
4,810
10
<5
Under occupancy
Total
480
Shetland islands
Aberdeenshire
Aberdeen
East Dunbartonshire
Orkney islands
East Renfrewshire
Moray
Stirling
Perth and Kinross
Eilean Siar
Scottish Borders
Edinburgh
Highland
Angus
East Lothian
Argyll and Bute
Falkirk
Midlothian
Fife
Dumfries and Galloway
West Lothian
South Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
East Ayrshire
Clackmannanshire
North Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
West Dunbartonshire
Dundee
Inverclyde
Glasgow
Overall impact of welfare reform on Scotland by
2014/15 by local authority area
Estimated loss £m p.a.
300
250
200
150
100
Estimated loss £m p.a.
50
0
Glasgow
Inverclyde
Dundee
West Dunbartonshire
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Clackmannanshire
East Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
South Lanarkshire
South Ayrshire
West Lothian
Dumfries and Galloway
Fife
Midlothian
Falkirk
Argyll and Bute
East Lothian
Angus
Highland
Edinburgh
Scottish Borders
Eilean Siar
Perth and Kinross
Stirling
Moray
East Renfrewshire
Orkney islands
East Dunbartonshire
Aberdeen
Aberdeenshire
Shetland islands
Overall financial impact of welfare reform on Scotland
by 2014/15 by local authority area
Loss per working age adult £ p.a
700
600
500
400
300
200
Loss per working age adult £ p.a
100
0
The Evidence base
• The most up to date baseline data available for work
and health related benefits by age, gender and
duration of claim by local authority area
• Labour market activity and inactivity by local authority
area
• Levels of under-employment by local authority area
• Work Programme performance by local authority area
• Some assessment of the impact of DWP’s
conditionality and sanctions policy
• Potential approaches to mitigation
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Clackmannanshire
Dumfries and Galloway
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
East Dunbartonshire
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh, City of
Eilean Siar
Falkirk
Fife
Glasgow City
Highland
Inverclyde
Midlothian
Moray
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Orkney Islands
Perth and Kinross
Renfrewshire
Scottish Borders
Shetland Islands
South Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
Stirling
West Dunbartonshire
West Lothian
Total Number of Job Seeker Allowance Claimants (JSA)
by local authority April 2013
Total JSA Count
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Total JSA Count
0
Total Number of Income Support Claimants by local
authority November 2012
Total Income Support benefit payments (Nov 2012)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Total Income Support benefit payments (Nov 2012)
Scotland
Total number Employment Support Allowance (ESA)
claimants by local authority November 2012
Total ESA Claimants
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Total ESA Claimants
Scotland
0
West Lothian
West…
Stirling
South…
South Ayrshire
Shetland Islands
Scottish Borders
Renfrewshire
Perth and…
Orkney Islands
North…
North Ayrshire
Moray
Midlothian
Inverclyde
Highland
Glasgow City
Fife
Falkirk
Eilean Siar
Edinburgh, City…
East…
East Lothian
East…
East Ayrshire
Dundee City
Dumfries and…
70000
Clackmannansh…
Argyll and Bute
Angus
Aberdeenshire
Aberdeen City
Total number of families in receipt of Tax Credits by
local authority 2010/11
Total families in receipt of tax credits (in work and out of work,
finalised annual awards 2010/11)
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
Total families
in receipt of
tax credits
(in work and
out of work,
finalised
annual…
10000
0
West Lothian
West…
Stirling
South…
South Ayrshire
Shetland Islands
Scottish Borders
Renfrewshire
Perth and…
Orkney Islands
North…
North Ayrshire
Moray
Midlothian
Inverclyde
Highland
Glasgow City
Fife
Falkirk
Eilean Siar
Edinburgh, City…
East…
East Lothian
East…
East Ayrshire
Dundee City
Dumfries and…
Clackmannansh…
Argyll and Bute
Angus
Aberdeenshire
Aberdeen City
Number of Housing Benefit claims in Local Authority and the
socially rented sector, by local authority, November 2012
80000
70000
60000
50000
No. of HB
recipients in
Social Rented
Sector
40000
30000
No. of total
HB claimants
in LA Housing
20000
10000
Total number of Incapacity Benefit (IB) claimants by
Local Authority November 2012
Total IB Benefit Claimants
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Total IB Benefit Claimants
Scotland
Total Number Incapacity Benefit (IB) and Severe Disablement
Allowance claimants by local authority November 2012
Total number of IB/SDA benefit claimants
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Total number of IB/SDA benefit claimants
Scotland
Total number of Working Age Disability Living
Allowance Claimants by local authority November 2012
Total no. of Working Age DLA claimants
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Total no. of Working Age DLA claimants
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Clackmannanshire
Dumfries and Galloway
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
East Dunbartonshire
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh, City of
Eilean Siar
Falkirk
Fife
Glasgow City
Highland
Inverclyde
Midlothian
Moray
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Orkney Islands
Perth and Kinross
Renfrewshire
Scottish Borders
Shetland Islands
South Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
Stirling
West Dunbartonshire
West Lothian
Work Programme Referral, Attachments and Job Outcomes
(1st June 2011-31st July 2012)
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
Total Work Programme
Job Outcomes
10000
Total Work Programme
Attachments
5000
Total Work Programme
Referrals
0
Aberdeen City
West Lothian
West Dunbartonshire
Stirling
South Lanarkshire
South Ayrshire
Shetland Islands
Scottish Borders
Renfrewshire
Perth and Kinross
Orkney Islands
North Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
Moray
Midlothian
Inverclyde
Highland
Glasgow City
Fife
Falkirk
Eilean Siar
Edinburgh, City of
East Renfrewshire
East Lothian
East Dunbartonshire
East Ayrshire
Dundee City
Dumfries and Galloway
Clackmannanshire
Argyll and Bute
Angus
Aberdeenshire
Employment rates for Scottish local authority areas
2012 (Scottish Labour Market Survey 2012)
Employment Rate % 2012;
Scottish Labour Market Survey 2012
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Employment Rate % 2012
10
0
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Clackmannanshire
Dumfries and Galloway
Dundee City
East Ayrshire
East Dunbartonshire
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh, City of
Eilean Siar
Falkirk
Fife
Glasgow City
Highland
Inverclyde
Midlothian
Moray
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Orkney Islands
Perth and Kinross
Renfrewshire
Scottish Borders
Shetland Islands
South Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
Stirling
West Dunbartonshire
West Lothian
Economic Inactivity rate by Scottish local authority area
2012(Scottish Labour Market Survey 2012)
Economic Inactivity Rate % 2012
35
30
25
20
15
10
Economic Inactivity Rate % 2012
5
0
6.0%
Aberdeen City
Eilean Siar (Western Isles)
Orkney Islands
West Lothian
South Lanarkshire
East Dunbartonshire
Moray
North Lanarkshire
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Edinburgh, City of
Falkirk
East Renfrewshire
10.0%
SCOTLAND
Stirling
East Lothian
North Ayrshire
Highland
Midlothian
Perth and Kinross
Inverclyde
Scot Borders, The
East Ayrshire
Glasgow City
Angus
Argyll & Bute
West Dunbartonshire
Renfrewshire
Dumfries and Galloway
South Ayrshire
Clackmannanshire
Shetland Islands
Dundee City
Underemployment across Scotland 2012
proportion of workers who are underemployed
source- Annual Population survey October 11-Sept. 12
16.0%
14.0% 13.6%
12.0%
9.9%
8.0%
5.1%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Underemployment- summary
• Underemployment increasing across all regions of the UK.
• Between 2008 - 2012 the number of underemployed
workers in Scotland increased by 76,000
• In 2011 the UK underemployment was high compared to
EU
• Wide variation in underemployment rates across LA areas.
• Almost half of all underemployed people in Scotland are
working part-time in the private sector.
• Women are more likely to be underemployed than men
(women more likely to work part-time).
• 65% of young males not in full-time education working
part-time report themselves as underemployed.
Conditionality for Universal Credit
• Applicants for Universal Credit are required to sign a Claimant
Commitment- a record of the responsibilities the claimant has made in
return for receiving Universal Credit
• Claimant Commitment applies to those in work and receiving UC, who are
identified as “could work more”, i.e. Those in part time Low paid
employment; the under-employed
• Expectation that preparing for and getting a job is the “full time focus” of
the UC claimant.
• Claimants not being able to demonstrate this will face a sanction, i.e. cut
to their UC.
• This means that people in employment will seek support to develop their
skills, access training/ further education and progress in the labour market
as result of their Claimant Commitment- further increasing demand for a
broad range of employability services
WR: Challenges for Employability Partnerships (1)
• Range of challenges for Employability Partnerships arising from WR (e.g.
Potential major increase in demand for Employability services; different
mix of clients / needs; etc)
• Resource implications (scale / doing more things / doing different things)?
• Ensuring appropriate linkages to other relevant services (Money Advice,
Welfare Rights, etc – incl emerging LSS) whilst avoiding ‘revolving doors’
• WR ‘incentivising work’ is premised on jobs being available. Linkages to
demand side / Strengthening integration with wider Economic
Development
WR: Challenges for Employability Partnerships (2)
• Reduced incomes within local economies
• Scope to influence focus of next round of EU funding
• Local Govt has major role to play in employability – and also lead role re
SOA priorities.
• Where does potential ‘crisis management’ around WR leave prevention /
early intervention agenda?
• Do Councils / CPPs have genuinely joined-up approach to Econ Outcomes?
• What more can public sector do re maximising economic impact?
Economic Outcomes Programme
• Working with Councils / partnerships to implementing key messages of
‘Econ Dev Improvement Guide’ in order to maximise economic impact
• Access to Guide and further info on EOP via:www.improvementservice.org.uk/economicoutcomes
• Wide range of tailored supports available to:– Individual Councils / Partnerships
– Groups of Councils / partnerships
– National initiatives
• Linkages to all key Econ Dev Agencies via EOP Prog Board
• But limited resources
Group Discussion
• Update re where Councils are in context of WR Employability challenges
• Emerging issues / themes?
• Are there common areas that would benefit from EOP / WRISP support?