Transcript Central Biofuels Conference & Expo

Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Mexico Biofuels Conference
Guadalajara, Mexico
7-8 May, 2008
The Race to Renewable
How we generate our
energy will determine our
quality of life
Manila, Philippines skyline
Lillehammer, Norway
Biofuels:
The New Fuel Economy
Oil surpasses the $121 mark: Yesterday!
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We can replace most of the fossil fuels demand
Oil resources are predicted to run out by 2055
Biofuels has shown to reduce GHG by 40-50%
Energy independence/Energy Security: Good public policy
Expand economic development in rural areas
The carbohydrate economy replaces carbon economy
An estimated $30 Billion (USD) investments in Renewable
Fuels projects in 2006-2008 worldwide
From 2006 through April of 2008 over $1 Billion (USD) has
been invested in cellulosic ethanol for R&D and pilot plants.
The source has been the US DOE and Canada’s Agriculture
Ministry.
The Race to Renewable
Changing our thinking
will add to our energy
balance and economic
opportunities
200 year old Dairy barn on Gotland, Sweden
Converted to Biodiesel Plant
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
21st Century: the beginning of a New Era
Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCES
Source: Nakícenovic, Grübler e MaConald
Developing A World Market
Issues Facing World Fuel Markets
1. Fuel Costs in the World Market:
A. Sierra Leone: $18.02USD/gal
B. Aruba: $12.03USD/gal
C. Europe/Paris: $8USD/gal
2. Growing fuel/oil demand
2006: USA imported $325B in crude oil, noncrude and petroleum products (23% increase in
one year)
3. Reduced Refining Capacity
Thirty years with no new oil refineries built in
USA
4. China and India Fuel Demand
The combined growth of the two economies will
require new fuel capacity of an additional 40m
barrels/day in the next five years
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Brazil and
USA
represent
84% of the
World
Production of
Ethanol
COUNTRY
Millions of
Gallons
% of World
USA
7100
51.7
Brazil
5020
36.5
EU
570
4.1
China
487
3.5
Canada
240
1.7
Thailand
89
0.6
Colombia
75
0.5
India
53
0.4
Central Am
40
0.3
Australia
26
0.2
Turkey
16
0.1
Pakistan
9.5
0.1
Peru
8
0.1
Argentina
5.3
0.05
Paraguay
4.7
0.05
Total
13,743.5
100%
2007 Ethanol Production
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Ethanol: US Demand-Supply Projections
40.0
30.0
Ethanol Demand
25.0
Total Ethanol Supply
20.0
Corn Ethanol Supply
15.0
10.0
5.0
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
-
20
Billion gallons/yr
35.0
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Chicken and the egg: Flex-fuel cars and trucks
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USA – Los productos de los grandes fabricantes americanos (G.M.,
Ford, Chrysler) son para E10. Tienen algunos para E85. Por ahora su
mayor producción esta orientada a vehículos convencionales de
gasolina.
Europa: solo pocos fabricante tienen vehículos Flex-Fuel. (Saab,
Ford, Volvo), especialmente para el mercado de Suecia, donde el uso
del etanol esta nuy desarrollado..
Brazil: País mas avanzados en desarrollo de vehículos Flex-Fuel .
GM tiene modelos Flex-Fuel. Otros fabricantes como Mitsubishi y
Toyota los introducirán próximamente.
Retail Fueling Challenges
USA Ethanol
Blends:
E10 (most states)
E20 (testing)
E30 (testing)
E85 (45 states)
• New fueling pumps
and tanks are needed
• Education for
consumers at point of
sale
• Incentives and
promotions to entice
customers
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Transportation and Biofuels
Biofuels as % or world transportation
fuels
• 2005
• 2020
1%
5-7%
Required increase (%) in biofuels
production
> 400%
Required increase ($) in capacity
expansion
$200 bill.
Challenges for Biofuels
• POLITICAL
– A long-term commitment to biofuels
– Hemispheric cooperation to satisfy demand and economies of
scale
• ECONOMIC
– Improve regulatory and investment climate
– Establish strong finance partners: venture capital, FIRA, I-ADB
• TRADE
– Open up trade to make biofuels truly global commodities
– Stimulate price competition
• SOCIAL
– Educate the public, the media, government officials, regulators
– Establish technical programs at schools and train workforce
Global Ethanol Feedstocks
South America
Europe
Brazil
Sugar Cane
EU
Grains, Sugar Beet
Peru
Sugar Cane
France
Sugar Beet, Wheat,
Corn
Colombia
Sugar Cane, sugar beet
Central America
Sugar Cane, sugar Beet
North America
United States
Canada
Germany
Spain
Corn
Corn, Wheat, Barley
Asia / Australia / Pacific Rim
China
Corn, Wheat
India
Sugarcane
Philippines
Sugar Cane
Thailand
Cassava, Sugarcane, Rice
Australia
Grains, Sugarcane, Sweet
Sorghum
Sweden
Rye, Wheat
Wheat, Barley
Wheat
Africa
South Africa
Ghana
Corn , Sugarcane
Sugar, Maize
Zimbabwe
Sugarcane, Sorghum
Mozambique
Sugarcane, Sorghum,
Corn
Global Biodiesel Feedstocks
South America
Brazil
Peru
Europe
Sunflower Seeds, Soybeans,
Castor Bean
Jatropha, Palm Oil, Canola
Colombia
Jatropha
Central
America
Palm Oil
North America
United States
Canada
Soybean
Canola, Rapeseed
Asia / Australia / Pacific Rim
China
Cotton Seed, Jatropha
India
Jatropha
Philippines
Coconut Oil
Thailand
Palm Oil, Jatropha, Soybean,
Peanut, Coconut
Australia
Canola, Sunflower
EU
Rapeseed
France
Rapeseed and Sunflower
Germany
Rapeseed and Sunflower
Spain
Palm Oil, Wheat, Barley
Africa
South Africa
Jatropha
Ghana
Palm Oil
Zimbabwe
Jatropha
Mozambique Jatropha
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Brazil
 Second largest producer in the world
 Most efficient producer in the world
 Accounts for about half of international ethanol trade
 Brazilian success generated large interest in biofuels
across LAC. Countries throughout LAC have biofuels
industries in varying stages of development
 Brazil engaging in cooperation agreements
Argentina
 Second world corn exporter well positioned to
develop ethanol and top producer to develop
biodiesel (vegetable oil)
Biofuels: The New Fuel Economy
Colombia
 Currently E10
 Fifth largest producer and exporter of palm oil; 4th in
yield by hectare
 Pioneering the use of tropical sugar beets and cassava
for ethanol production
 Potential advantage in access to the US market using
trade agreements
Central America and Caribbean
 Biofuels of interest in cutting oil imports and raising
export revenue
 Using trade agreements and CBI
Other Global Markets
 Japan is moving from 3% ethanol blend to 10% by
2020
 India and Philippines have initiated fuel ethanol
programs
 Indonesia and Malaysia are planting more palm and
now investing in ethanol production with molasses,
cassava and sugar
 Thailand has twelve ethanol plants and 10 more in
planning stages
Brazil Sugar to Ethanol
Competing with the global leader
 Liberalization leads to increasing growth
 Poised to be strong exporter:
 Lowest-cost producer
 Supportive government policy
 Net energy balance
 Abundant land resources
 Increased internal demand due to FFV sales will change the
export market dynamics
 Existing trade: USA through CBI (early summer arbitrage
allowed heavy direct sales to the US), Japan and S. Korea
 Development of export industry is challenged by other
nations’ trade policies
Biofuels: The Next Generation
Feedstocks for Cellulosic Ethanol
Switchgrass
Corn Stover
Agave
Wood waste
…..basically any waste plant material can be
converted to into ethanol either through chemical
or thermo process.
Rice Patty
China’s Vast Resources
Food vs. Fuel Debate
Source:
European Market
The Opportunities and Challenges
 Poised to become net importer from Brazil and
USA
 Biofuels Directive (10% in 2020) to boost
production of fuel ethanol and synthetic fuels to
reach target
 Growth of new capacity in Eastern Europe
 Reforms of EU agricultural markets needed
 Different biofuel requirements inhibit growth
 Automotive industry must develop more
biofuels cars
Americas Hemispheric Network
Americas Bioenergy Network
• Americas Bioenergy Network
• Member driven
• Setting technical Standards
• Building Partnerships
• Promoting Clean Energy
• Project Finance
• Influencing Policy
• Communications Center
• Promoting your company
• Accessing the global market
Africa: Renewable Energy
Partners for Euro-African Green Energy (PANGEA)
encourages African biofuel production as a way to
promote sustainable economic development using what
Africa does best—agriculture.
Activities:
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Provide policy expertise to EU institutions and
member states
www.pangealink.org
Goals:
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Provide EU and African market analysis & trade
opportunities
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To promote African biofuels production for
the European market
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Create strategic political & industrial
partnerships through networking
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To encourage European investment and
policies for in African biofuel production and
importation
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Quarterly Board meetings (Brussels) tied with
EC/EP networking and Annual AGM
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To monitor food vs. fuel issues
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Participate in biofuel conferences and trade
development workshops
To serve as a one-stop shop of African
biofuel expertise
The Race to Renewable
What the future holds is in your hands!
Mexico Biofuels Conference
Contact Information
Randy R. Stratton, President
TSG Marketing
3220 W. 57th Street, Suite 100
Sioux Falls, South Dakota 57108 USA
Tele. +01 605.323.0119
Fax +01 605.323.0122
Email: [email protected]