Transcript Preliminary 2005 Budget and Financial Plan

MTA Special
Finance Committee
Meeting
DJC
November 10, 2008
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
November 10, 2008
1
July Financial Plan
Problem and Solutions
($ in millions)
2008
2009
2010
($345)
($1,143)
($1,882)
Internal Actions
$155
$310
$411
External Actions
$40
$302
$801
Fare / Toll Yield Changes
$0
$202
$405
$194
$813
$1,618
$495
$344
$15
$344
$15
($250)
July Plan Baseline before Prior-Year Carry-Over
Gap Closing Actions
Prior Year Carry-Overs
July Plan Closing Cash Balance
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
November 10, 2008
2
Current Economic Conditions
NY Fed: NYC Coincident Economic Indicator
Change from Prior Month
5.0%
NY Metropolitan Area
Unemployment Rate
6.0%
4.0%
5.5%
4.2%
3.0%
5.5%
3.5%
5.6%
5.3%
5.0%
2.0%
4.5%
1.0%
1.3%
0.7%
0.0%
4.4%
4.0%
Sep 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Sep 08
Sep 07
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Closing Prices
Jan 08
Jul 08
Sep 08
S&P: Case-Schiller Home Price Index
NY Metro Area
14,000
210
13,300
12,000
205
12,827
207.2
200
200.5
11,232
195
10,000
190
8,696
8,000
11/6/07
1/7/08
7/7/08
11/6/08
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
193.3
192.8
Jul 08
Aug 08
185
Aug 07
Jan 08
November 10, 2008
3
Forecast of Economic Conditions
U.S. Gross Domestic Product, in Real Dollars
12,500
12,400
12,300
12,200
For 2010, the October
Forecast is 3.6% lower
than the January Forecast.
12,100
12,000
11,900
For 2008, the October
Forecast is 0.8% lower
than the January Forecast.
11,800
For 2009, the October
Forecast is 3.2% lower
than the January
Forecast.
11,700
11,600
2008
January 2008 Forecast
2009
July 2008 Forecast
2010
October 2008 Forecast
U.S. GDP in 2000 Dollars
Source: Global Insight, Inc.
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
November 10, 2008
4
NYS Taxes: Corporate Surcharge
Accounts for almost 50% of MMTOA
($ in millions)
$1,000
$900
Actual
NYS Enacted Budget
NYS October Update
Downstate MMTOA Collections
Corporate Surcharge
Sales
Corporate Franchise
Petroleum Business Tax (PBT)
TOTAL
$800
2006
Actual
2006
2007
962
983
709
756
68
60
73
76
1,812
1,875
NYS October Update
2008
2009
2010
842
803
877
783
796
812
68
68
68
75
77
78
1,768
1,744
1,836
2007
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
2008
2009
2010
November 10, 2008
5
Real Estate Transaction Taxes
($ in millions)
$1,600
$230
Nov/Dec
$1,400
$316
Nov/Dec
$1,200
$1,357
$1,000
$1,116
$800
Jan
thru
Oct
Jan
thru
Oct
$600
2006
2007
$192
$142
Nov/Dec
Nov/Dec
$853
$853
Jan
thru
Oct
Jan
thru
Oct
July
Plan
Nov
Plan
2008
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
$946
$895
July
Plan
Nov
Plan
2009
$928
$877
July
Plan
Nov
Plan
2010
November 10, 2008
6
What got better? What got worse?
($ in millions)
2008
2009
2010
Real Estate Tax Update
($50)
($66)
($80)
State Tax Update
($15)
($175)
($133)
Debt Service
$9
($18)
($54)
Farebox/Toll Revenue
$47
($17)
($44)
Pensions
$0
($35)
($70)
Energy
($5)
$27
$11
Subtotal
($14)
($284)
($370)
Eliminate July State/City/Local Actions
($40)
($237)
($689)
Major Changes to July Plan
($54)
($521)
($1,059)
Subtotal
(including internal actions & fare/toll yield of 8%)
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
November 10, 2008
7
November Solutions
• Additional 1% Fare/Toll Yield Increase - $29M (6/09 Start) ; $50M annualized
• Agency 1% Reductions - $44M (7/09) ; $87M annualized
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
November 10, 2008
8
December Opportunities
•Ravitch Commission report released on December 5th
•State Executive Budget released on December 16th
•MTA Board Budget Adoption in December
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
November 10, 2008
9