Transcript Slide 1

3. Status of
WRF Operational Implementations
WRF Executive Oversight Board
U.S. Naval Observatory, Washington, D.C.
28 April 2006
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AFWA WRF
Implementation
WRF ExOB
28 April 2006
Colonel John M. Lanicci
Commander
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Distribution Authorized to U.S. Government Agencies and their Contractors only
WRF Transition
 Program Overview:
 WRF will support higher resolution, improved accuracy, and
more representative 4D M2M forecasts for command and
control, mission planning/execution, and mission support
systems
 Improvements in mesoscale modeling will allow forecasters to
focus greater attention on high-risk weather areas and high-risk
aviation impact variables
 Program Milestones and Schedule:
 WRF 2.0.3.1
 WRF 2.1.2
 AFWA IOC
 AFWA FOC
Oct 2005
Extended Operational Testing
(EOT) begins
Mar 2006
AFWA implementation for EOT
Summer 2006 First operational use
Late 2007
Full Operational Capability
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WRF Transition
EOT Status

AFWA currently running WRF in non-operational mode

Froze code and began operational testing in Oct 05


Testing two 5km and one 15km window in classified environment

Objective and subjective comparisons to MM5

Both real-time and seasonal test cases evaluated
Testing exposed some quality issues

Upgraded to v2.1.2 in Mar 06 and extended testing timeline

Discovered some lingering quality issues

Optimized v2.1.2 to address those issues

Re-initiated operational testing on 24 Apr
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WRF IOC Testing
27 Mar – 21 Apr
1= Much Worse
2 = Worse
Scale
3 = About the same
Category
Overall Average
Severe
3.2
Icing
4 = Better
5 = Much better
Identified Strengths
# of responses
High
Low
G
58
5.0
2.0
- WRF surface moisture convergence better defined where
convection would occur.
3.4
G
9
4.0
2.0
- WRF outperforms MM5 in terms of high level cloud
forecast.
Turbulence
3.0
G
2
3.0
3.0
- WRF outperforms MM5 in terms of surface winds and
surface temperature.
Winds
3.5
G
25
4.0
2.0
Clouds
2.9
R
35
4.0
2.0
Precip
3.2
G
30
5.0
2.0
Temp
3.2
G
19
4.0
2.0
SLP
3.2
G
7
4.0
2.0
R
18
Visibility
2.7
- WRF probability of detection of convection is higher.
- WRF surface wind forecast along frontal boundary was
better at the 6-hour point.
Identified Weaknesses
- False alarm rate on forecast convection is higher in terms
of coverage and severity.
- WRF has a tendency to forecast large areas of convection
in mountainous terrain that never occur.
- WRF over forecasts low to middle level cloud coverage.
3.0
2.0
- MM5 outperforms WRF in terms of forecast visibility
reduction associated with precipitation
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1.4
Generalized Operations (GO)
Index
13 Oct - 31 Mar
1.2
1.5
GO Index: Weighted
1.1skill scores of
mission need parameters combined to
form a single, integrated value.
00Z cycles
WRF - MM5 Index Comparison
06Z cycles
12Z cycles
18Z cycles
Better
1.4
1
Index Number
Index Number
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
Weighting
0.9
Scheme
Persistence
WRF
400WS
250WS
850WS
700TD
400TD
400TT
400HT
SLP
SFCTT
850TD
SFCTD
SFCWS
6hr/12hr 18hr/24hr 30hr/36hr 42hr/48hr
4
3
2
1
4
3
2
1
4
3
2
1
8
6
4
2
8
6
4
2
4
3
2
1
4
3
2
1
8
6
4
2
8
6
4
2
8
6
4
2
8
6
4
2
8
6
4
2
MM5
WRF
1
0.9
WRF
MM5
MM5
WRF
MM5
WRF
WRF
WRF
MM5 Model
WRF
MM5
MM5
WRF
IndexModel
Lo
MM5
MM5
WRF
MM5
WRF
MM5
Hi
Index Lo Hi
Model Evaluation Period Cycle Theater # of days used # of SS used
WRF 102005-032006 00Z T04B
132
6334
MM5 102005-032006 00Z T04B
132
6334
190
Index
1.27
1.3
Type
GO
GO
Lo
1.2142
1.2414
Hi
1.3268
1.3632
WRF
MM5
102005-032006
102005-032006
06Z
06Z
T04B
T04B
132
132
6334
6334
1.3054
1.3355
GO
GO
1.2479
1.2734
1.364
1.3989
WRF
MM5
102005-032006
102005-032006
12Z
12Z
T04B
T04B
133
133
6382
6382
1.2824
1.2927
GO
GO
1.2263
1.2341
1.3395
1.3525
WRF
MM5
102005-032006
102005-032006
18Z
18Z
T04B
T04B
133
133
6382
6382
1.3175
1.3452
GO
GO
1.2603
1.2845
1.3758
1.407
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UNCLASSIFIED
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Joint Ensemble Forecast System
(JEFS)
GOAL: Prove the value, utility, and operational feasibility of EF to DoD operations.
FOCUS: How to best exploit EF output within forecasting and decision processes.
Joint Global Ensemble (JGE)
48/30 members, 1 1, 7 day, 2 cycle/day
Joint Mesoscale Ensemble (JME)
20 members, 15/5km, 60 hr, 2 cycles/day
 JGE supports init./lat. boundary conditions
 Ensemble Transform initial conditions
 Multimodel (WRF-ARW, COAMPS)
 Varied model physics configurations
 Perturbed surface boundary conditions
 FNMOC Medium Range Ensemble
18 NOGAPS runs (T119, 1 cycle/day)
 NCEP Medium Range Ensemble
15 GFS runs (T126, 4 cycles/day)
5 km
× 48
× 20
5 km
15km
 Products: Tailored to support the
warfighter planning processes
 Products: Tailored to operational wx
sensitivities of the warfighter
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Notional Ensembling Roadmap
JEFS and Beyond
AFWA/FNMOC Awarded HPCMPO Distributed Center Nov 03 ($4.2M)
AFWA Awarded PET-CWO On-Site ($200K/yr)
NRL Awarded mesoscale ensemble research ($1.6M)
DTRA Ensemble Investment at AFWA: initial (FY05: $35K ), annual ($150K/yr)
DTRA SBIR to develop reforecast dataset capability for calibration ($850K)
ARL SBIR ($350K) to develop Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal (WRAP), and AFWA UFR ($100K)
NCAR & UW Contract, funded by AFWA Wx Fcst 3600 (FY05: $80K, FY06 $213K, FY07 $100K)
1. HPCMPO DC H/W
1
H/W Refresh
2. Programming Environment and Training - Climate Weather Ocean On-Site
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3
3. Probabilistic Pred. of High Impact Wx
4. DTRA Investment
5. Phase I
6. Phase I
5. DTRA SIBR Phase II
6. ARL SIBR Phase II
7. NCAR & UW Contract
JGE RDT&E
JEFS Design
JEFS End
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Operational JGE
CONUS Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
JME RDT&E
OCONUS EPS Windows
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
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AFWA New Building
 $30M in FY06 President’s Budget
 188,000 square foot building
 Includes 16,000 square foot computer room
 Flexible design accommodates transformational changes
 WFHQ, NOAA’s Operational Central Computer System
 Contract Awarded to Kiewit Building Group, Inc on 15 Feb 2006
 Ground breaking ceremony 24 Mar 2006 with occupancy in 2008
 Need to ratify Memorandum of Understanding between NOAA
and AFWA - target June 2006
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NCEP Status of WRF
Operational Implementation
Louis W. Uccellini
Director, NCEP
WRF ExOB Meeting
Washington, DC
April 28, 2006
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”
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2005 Implementations
• HIRESW – June 28, 2005
– Increase Resolution
• WRF-ARW Runs from 10km->5.8 km
• WRF-NMM Runs from 8km->5.1 km
– Turn Off Calls to Convective Parameterization
• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)
– Addition of Six WRF Members – December 6, 2005
• 3 from ARW
• 3 from NMM
Preserves multi-model
diversity
850T (8/25/05-9/24/05)
2.5
– Fields Added for Testing in Support
– Extension from 63 to 87 hours
– August 31, 2005
– Grids Added Over Alaska and Hawaii
21-mem
12km NAM
2.1
1.9
1.7
rmse (C)
of AWIPS OB-7
15-mem
2.3
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
9
15
21
27
33
39
Forecast Hours
45
51
57
63
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2006 NCEP Production Suite
Atmospheric Model Dependencies
Ensemble
Hurricane
NAEFS
G
G
S
I
Global
GFDL
SREF
GFS
Climate
E
D
A
S
CFS
MOM3
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
ETA
RSM
Regional
HYCOM
Ocean
Dispersion
Sev
Wx
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
NAM - Eta
Air Quality
NOAH Land Surface Model
Forecas
t
Rapid Update
Cycle
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L D A S
Upcoming Implementations
•
Global Forecast System (GFS)
–
–
•
–
Replace Eta with WRF-NMM – 3rd Qtr
FY2006
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)
Availability of Level 2 Radar for WRF –
2nd Qtr FY2006
–
RTMA is First Component of Analysis
of Record (Hourly)
5km Analysis in Support of NDFD
Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)
–
–
Run 4 Cycles Daily – 3rd Qtr FY2006
Bias Correction for Precipitation – 3rd
Qtr FY2006
NAEFS – 3rd Qtr FY2006
–
–
–
–
•
Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 3rd Qtr
FY2006
–
•
Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3rd Qtr
FY2006
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)
Analysis, with AIRS & MODIS data –
3rd Qtr FY2006
NAM
–
–
•
•
• Streamlining data files currently on server
• http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
Air Quality Forecast
–
–
•
•
Increase U.S. Membership from 10 14
Members
Bias Correction and Climate Anomaly
Forecasts
Implement Ensemble Transform Method
Significant file system changes
Expanded domain to CONUS – 4th Qtr
FY2006
Replace Eta with WRF-NMM -3rd Qtr
FY2006
RUC – 4 April 2006 (Tentative)
–
13 km GRIB2 Grids available on NOAAPORT
Marine Wave Model
–
–
10 member Ensemble Wave model – 3rd Qtr
FY2006
Great Lakes Wave model – 4th Qtr FY2006
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Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008)
Hurricane
WRF
NAEFS
G
G
S
I
SREF
GFS
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
RSM?
R
G
S
I
CFS
MOM3
HYCOM
Ocean
Dispersion
Sev
Wx
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
NAM- WRF
NOAH Land Surface Model
Chem WRF
Air Quality
Forecas
t
Rapid Refresh
WRF
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L D A S
Major Paradigm Shift
Weather Research and Forecast Model
• Community model approach directed more at ensemble forecast
system rather a 1-model deterministic approach
• Developmental Test Center (Boulder)
– Outreach to academic community
– Assessment of new model components
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Summary
• NCEP is
– Undergoing a paradigm shift toward ensemble models in
all forecast applications, based on community model
approach
• Has major implications for the WRF program
• Increasing resources will be applied to the SREF
– Implementing WRF-NMM to replace the ETA in O6
– Getting ready for 07 implementations
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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate
Prediction
• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF
• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and
visiting scientists
• 5 NCEP Centers
• NESDIS research and satellite
services
• OAR Air Resources
Laboratory
• Begin move to new
facility September ’07;
complete by April ’08
• Space for 40 visitors
• Groundbreaking
occurred March 13, 2006
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End
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