Transcript Slide 1
Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service The Record Breaking Floods of March 2010 Edward J. Capone, CFM Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center http://weather.gov/nerfc West Warwick, RI at 1030 am Wednesday 3/31/10 Outline Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service A bit about the Northeast River Forecast Center (NWS NERFC) What ingredients brought us to such a remarkable flood event – meteorology/hydrology/hydraulics? A few historical perspectives NERFC Opportunities going forward NWS River Forecast Centers Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Mission: Protection of Life and Property Flood Guidance Water Supply 13 River Forecast Centers across USA 122 Weather Forecast Offices Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service NERFC Service Area Major river basins include Genesee, Hudson, Mohawk, Housatonic, Connecticut, Merrimack , Blackstone, Pawtuxet, Kennebec , Penobscot and Saint John Staffing profile : ~180 forecast points -Managers 4 Senior Hydrologists / 3 Hydrologists 1 Senior HAS/2 HAS 1 ASA/Hydro Tech NERFC Customer/Partner Advisory Board Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Guide us to ensure our products and services help meet the challenges of the many Regional Water Resource Impacts Floods, Drought, Water Supply, Power Generation, Fisheries Management, Ecosystem Health, Water Quality, Salt Water Intrusion, Dam/Levee Failures, Tropical Cyclone Impacts So what brought us to the tipping point in March 2010? Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service It was NOT caused by One single Nor’easter or one Coastal Storm Snowmelt Improper water management So what brought us to the tipping point in March 2010? It was caused by: Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service The atmospheric river – “energized” by El Nino Blocking high pressure over Greenland A sequence of heavy rainfall events over a 5 week period March rainfall totaling 16-18 inches Axis of each event over Pawtuxet Watershed (200 sq. mi) Saturated ground A “spilling” Scituate Reservoir System Designed for Water Supply not Flood Control! Swollen streams and ponds running well above normal The lack of nature’s pumping – fully vegetated trees, etc. Pre-growing season – no Evapotranspiration to help us out! Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service So what brought us to the tipping point in March 2010? Sequence of 4 big rain events Orientation of rainfall in each event hit the Pawtuxet Basins the worst Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service The Complete Picture: Record Setting Monthly Rainfall Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service The cumulative effect: Saturation As much as 16 to 18 inches of rain in Rhode Island by the end of the month! Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service The Pawtuxet’s Record Response Sensitivity to Reservoir Pool Elevation Data Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Excellent lead time but under-forecast for Cranston, RI Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service But it floods in the Spring Pawtuxet River Flood Frequency Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Recurrence Interval Floods Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service 100 Yr storms Yesteryear vs. Today climate changes ?? 24hr-100yr 7.0 inches for RI Yesterday’s 24hr100 yr rainfall event is … 8.5 inches for RI …near today’s 24hr-45 year rainfall event >7 inches for RI Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service 100 Year(storm) Rainfall = 100 Year flood? Near 9” inches for basin Near 9” for RI The Atmospheric River Narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport outside of the tropics 1500 to 3000 miles long Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service 150 to 300 miles wide Single one capable of carrying an amount of water vapor equivalent to 1020 times the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River Typically 3 to 5 of these plumes present within a hemisphere Play a central role in the global water cycle Account for >90% water vapor transported toward Poles Can be a cause of extreme precipitation/major flooding in mid-latitudes MIT researchers coined term in early 1990’s Other Regional Names: Pineapple Express, ARk Storm, TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) , Fire Hose Effect Not all cause damage … can be beneficial and crucial to water supply Can produce >40” rain (2005 4-day California event) Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service The March 2010 Atmospheric River 1. A constant train of storms 2. Each getting “super-charged” by El Nino: big rainners! 3. Persistent Block over Greenland slows ‘em down NASA/NOAA Satellite Movie March 2010 March 21 to 31 Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service March 8 to 16 MEDIA Contacts during the Flood RI Governor’s Office Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service GLOBO TV – Brazil TV Meteorologists CNN/Regional/Local News Globo TV News Story Then came the dams! Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Arctic Mill Dam -- Warwick, RI Clark Upper and Lower Dams -- Cranston, RI Blue Pond Dam -- Hopkinton, RI Glen Rock Reservoir Dam – S. Kingstown, RI Quidneck Reservoir -- Coventry, RI Winchek Pond Dam -- Hopkinton, RI The NWS can assist by running real-time dam breach simulations Providing timing, travel time, depth down stream BUT ONLY IF WE KNOW ABOUT THEM!!! Dams in particular Blue Pond experienced a complete failure Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Hopkinton, RI Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service ER High Hazard Dams “The Challenge of the HH Dam Impact” WFO HIGH WFO HIGH AKQ 28 ALY 200 BGM 268 BOS 347 BTV 61 BUF 51 CAE 105 CAR 21 CHS 7 CLE 156 CTP 196 GSP 478 GYX 75 ILM 10 ILN 185 LWX 184 MHX 7 OKX 270 PBZ 324 PHI 220 RAH 383 RLX 296 RNK 140 ASCE Report Card on High Hazard Dams/Levees Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service ”climate change continues to augment the variability and frequency of extremes in temperature and precipitation” As dams age and downstream development increases, the number of deficient dams has risen to more than 4,000, including 1,819 high hazard potential dams. Over the past six years, for every deficient, high hazard potential dam repaired, nearly two more were declared deficient. There are more than 85,000 dams in the U.S., and the average age is just over 51 years old. Historical Footnotes Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Extremely rare to set two record flood elevations in two weeks – as was done on the Pawtuxet (>100 yr followed by a 500 yr flood) Lots of similarity prior event -1982 Pawtuxet major flooding Consider this fact: The storms in March 2010 dumped over 16 inches of rain …. Mostly in 7 days spread over the month The record Flood in adjacent basins in 1955 was the result of over 10 inches in ONE DAY with over 14 to 16 inches of rain in 1 week in northern RI. Going Forward and rating curve extensions ! NWS needs accurate and dependable pool elevation data coming from the Scituate Reservoir And/or the establishment of a tailwater gage downstream in Fiskville Utilize technologies to assist with notifications to residents along the river that a flood is being forecast Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Maintain support to USGS for their outstanding stream gaging networks Think reverse 911 or similar systems used by schools for closures Tap academic / research partnerships as has been done for Hurricane Preparedness and Special Area Management Planning Dams will continue to be a threat NWS can help with real-time forecasts/simulations Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service NERFC is currently producing Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Meteorologic Forcings for Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Future Services: National Inundation Mapping Program The development of static /dynamic inundation mapping NWS works with Federal, State, Local water Agencies/partners Available where NWS produces stage forecasts Available where LIDAR mapping and HEC-RAS modeling completed Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service AHPS Page – Forecast Hydrograph Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Inundation Mapping from Real-Time River Forecasts x Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service “They Paved Paradise and put up a parking Lot” (many) Protecting Lives and Property National Weather Service Questions ? THANK YOU! Edward J. Capone, CFM Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center http://weather.gov/nerfc