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Global Climate Change:
Evolving Science, Emerging Policy
David G. Victor
15 June 2006
Program on Energy & Sustainable Development
Stanford University
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Heinrich and non-Heinrich Periods:
Schematic View of Ice Flow and Sedimentation
John T. Andrews, Thomas G. Andrews and Lisa M. Lixey. 2001. “Heinrich
Events,” NOAA Paleoclimatology Program.
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Heinrich Events
(H-1, approx 15,000 years ago)
John T. Andrews, Thomas G. Andrews and Lisa M. Lixey. 2001. “Heinrich
Events,” NOAA Paleoclimatology Program.
Photo: Bedford Institute of Oceonagraphy
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Heinrich Events:
“teleconnected climate” in the
whole North Atlantic region?
John T. Andrews, Thomas G. Andrews and Lisa M. Lixey. 2001.
“Heinrich Events,” NOAA Paleoclimatology Program.
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North Atlantic Turnover is Slowing (?)
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Abrupt Climate Change and Feedback
Source: Reprinted from Foley, Jonathan A. (2005) “Tipping Points in the Tundra.” Science. 310: 627-8. Quirin Schiermeier, Munich. (2005) “Past climate comes into
focus but warm forecast stays put.” Nature. 433: 562-3.
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Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
~ 55 Mya
• Extreme and rapid (~10-20 kyr) warming;
~5 to 10°C Tropic/Polar SST, +4-5°C deep sea
• Elevated humidity/precipitation in mid- to high latitudes
• Changes in the diversity and distribution of marine and terrestrial biota
Expansion of tropical/subtropical fauna/flora into high latitudes
Mass extinction
Mammalian dispersal/faunal reorganization
+8
+5
+5
+8
Source: James Zachos
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Amazon Forest: Drying Climate Increases
Risk of Superfires?
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Ecosystem Conversion
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Adaptation or Mitigation?
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Who Emits Greenhouse Gases
Today and tomorrow
Canada
2020
Other Central/South America
Eastern Europe
2002
United States
Africa
India
Japan
Western Europe
Middle East
Other Asia
Former Soviet
Union
China
Source: EIA
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Per-Capita Emissions of CO2
(Burning of fossil fuels and cement production, 1999)
10
metric tonnes Carbon per person
9
8
7
6
5.5
5
4
3
3.93
2.69
2.63
2.49
2.46
2.29
2.04
2
2
1.05
1
0
0.61
0.3
http://pesd.stanford.edu/
Data source: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden, and Bob Andres
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of North Dakota
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International Treaties:
Framework Convention System: UNFCCC
•
•
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
– signed in 1992 (“Earth Summit”)
Content
– Avoid “…dangerous anthropogenic interference…” in the climate system
– Industrialized Nations
• Aim to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels
• Pay into a fund to compensate developing countries
• File reports
– Developing Countries
• Compensated with “agreed incremental cost” of compliance
• File reports
•
All Countries Agree to Keep Talking
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International Treaties:
Framework Convention System: Kyoto
•
•
•
Treaty signed in 1997; finalized in 2001
Basket of six greenhouse gases (not just CO2)
Emission Cuts for 38 industrialized countries
• Against 1990 baseline: +10% to -8% (average: 5.2% cut)
• “targets and timetables”
• Applies only to 2008-2012 “budget period”
•
Developing countries exempt
• “opt in” through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
•
“What, When and Where Flexibility”
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Properties of Major Greenhouse Gases
GAS
CHEMICAL
COMP’N
RADIATIVE
EFFICIENCY
(Wm-2ppb-1)
LIFETIME (yrs)
Forcing in 2100
(% of increase)
Carbon Dioxide
CO2
0.000015
~100
73%
Methane
CH4
0.00037
~12
10%
Nitrous Oxide
N2O
0.0031
114
4%
CFC-12
CCl2F2
0.32
100
-3%
HFC-134a
CH2FCF3
0.15
13.8
1%
Sulfur Hexafluoride
SF6
0.52
3,200
1%
PFCs
e.g., CF4
0.08
50,000
1%
CO2 does not have a single lifetime—some processes that remove CO2 occur rapidly; others require centuries. The values for CH 4 and N20 are adjustment times
including feedbacks of emission on lifetimes. CO2 radiative forcing is for small changes from current concentrations (370 ppmv). 2050 radiative forcing calculations
are % of total anthropogenic (including ozone depletion effects) for SRES B2 scenario, total forcing in 2100 of 3.73 Wm -2. Other Scenarios do not much affect the
allocation of forcing among these gases.
Source: IPCC Working Group 1. 2001.Program
Tables 6.7 on
& 6.14.
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How Well is Kyoto Working?
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Why the United States Left Kyoto:
Trajectories
and
Kyoto
Commitments
Why the U.S.
Can't Ratify
the Kyoto Protocol
7000
BPAmoco_HHV
6000
USA
IIASA/WEC
Oak Ridge
5000
EIA
MtCO2
IEA_LHV
4000
EU15
Official FCCC base
year
3000
2000
Japan
1000
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
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2010
2020
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Why the United States Left Kyoto:
Trajectories
and
Kyoto
Commitments
Why the U.S.
Can't Ratify
the Kyoto Protocol
7000
BPAmoco_HHV
6000
USA
IIASA/WEC
Oak Ridge
5000
EIA
MtCO2
IEA_LHV
4000
EU15
Official FCCC base
year
3000
2000
Japan
1000
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
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2010
2020
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Energy-related Carbon Emissions
4.5
Reforming countries
Consequences of
Allocating Permits
to Countries with
Different Marginal
Abatement Costs:
Annual emissions (GtC)
(Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union)
3.0
Kyoto Target:
+0.6% of 1990 level
(1.7 GtC surplus)
A2
A1
A3
B
1.5
C1
C2
IIASA/WEC
“Middle Course”
0.0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
4.5
A2
Huge Revenue
Flows
Annual emissions (GtC)
Other Annex 1 countries
(North America, Western Europe,
Japan, Australia, New Zealand)
A1
3.0
B
Kyoto target
-7.4% of 1990 level
(2.7 GtC deficit)
1.5
IIASA/WEC
“Middle Course”
A3
C1
C2
0.0
1950
1970
1990
2010
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2030
2050
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grams Carbon (gC) per 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollar
Carbon Intensity of Major Economies
900
USA
800
700
South Africa
UK
600
500
400
China
300
200
Japan
France
India
Mexico
Brazil
100
0
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Data Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Maddison, A. (2004)
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Fraction of CDM Pipeline by Project Type
Fuel Switching
1%
Industrial Process
Energy Efficiency
3%
3%
Cement Process
Other
3%
1%
Wind
5%
Hydro
5%
Biomass
7%
Adipic/Nitric N20
11%
Landfill CH4
14%
Livestock CH4
4%
Wastewater CH4
1%
Oil Field CH4
4%
Coal Mine CH4
0%
HFC23
38%
Landfill CH4
Livestock CH4
Wastewater CH4
Oil Field CH4
Coal Mine CH4
HFC23
Adipic/Nitric N20
Biomass
Hydro
Wind
Cement Process
Industrial Process
Fuel Switching
Energy Efficiency
Other
Source: Michael Wara. (CERs supplied to Dec. 31, 2012)
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What’s Really Happening…
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Actual and Projected EU-15 GHG emissions
Compared with Kyoto Target for 2008–2012,
Including Kyoto Mechanisms
Sources: EEA
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A Fragmented Response:
Emerging Carbon Currencies
45
40
35
Volume
(MTCO2)
30
$/Metric Tonne CO2
25
EU
20
1.5 million
15
10
500,000
CDM
NSW
UK
5
Jan-01
PCF
125,000
CCX
50,000
May-02
Sep-03
Feb-05
Jun-06
Nov-07
(5)
CCX volumes are monthly and prices are monthly weighted averages.
(10)
Sources: PointCarbon, International Emissions Trading Association
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U.S. Regional Initiatives
Source: www.pewclimate.org
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States with GHG Reporting and Registries
Source: www.pewclimate.org. As of March 2006.
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States with GHG Emissions Targets
Source: www.pewclimate.org. As of May 2006.
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States with a Carbon Cap or Offset
Requirement for Power Plants
Source: www.pewclimate.org.
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Renewable Portfolio Standards
Source: www.pewclimate.org.
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0
Texas
California
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Florida
Indiana
Illinois
New York
Louisiana
Michigan
Georgia
Kentucky
North Carolina
Alabama
Tennessee
New Jersey
Missouri
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
South Carolina
Iowa
Maryland
Kansas
Massachusetts
Utah
Arkansas
Wyoming
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Dakota
Nevada
Oregon
Nebraska
Alaska
Connecticut
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
New Hampshire
Delaware
Idaho
Rhode Island
Vermont
DC
Million Metric Tonnes CO2
700
500
400
60%
50%
300
40%
200
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/
Cumulative %
Where Do U.S. Emissions Come From?
100%
600
90%
80%
70%
30%
20%
100
10%
0%
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U. S. Capacity Additions… 2005 to 2010
2,200
1,944
345
871
New England
1,729
4,312
3,689
275
255
510
1,754
1,136
3,513
1,559
4,728
61
376
1,173
315
2,044
10,091
1,200
1,546
1,083
0
804
2,032
27
1,982
2,859
258 1,784
434
90
298
1,270
1,160
1,240
384 2,552
5,014
New Capacity
1,501
in MW
7,958
Total
78,386
Over 78 GW
of =New
Capacity
3,001 and Above
1,501 to 3,000
501 to 1,500
0 to 500
Source: EPRI Analysis
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U. S. Capacity Additions by Year and
Technology, 1999 to 2014
Capacity, MW
60,000
Other
Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Retirements
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: EPRI Analysis
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Comparison of U.S. Federal Policy Options
Mandatory / Voluntary
Target
Offsetting Emissions Allowed for
Compliance
Cost Cap
Stabilizes Emissions
EIA Estimated Emissions Reductions
2025
(MTCO2)
EIA Estimated Permit Price 2025
($/TCO2)
EIA Estimated Impact on real GDP
2025
Bingaman - Domenici
Proposal
Climate Stewardship and
Innovation Act
McCain - Lieberman
Kyoto
Protocol
Climate Initiative Bush
Administration
Mandatory
Mandatory
Mandatory
Voluntary
Absolute based on 2.4%
intensity improvement
2010-2018, after 2019
target increases
stringency to 2.8%
Absolute emissions 2000
emissions level after 2010
Absolute
7% below 1990 levels by
2012
Intensity target goal 18%
reduction by 2012
Yes
Not to exceed 3%
Yes
not to exceed 15% of
allowance allocation
Yes
no limits specified through
Kyoto, though implementing
countries have discretion
N/A
Yes - $7
No
No
No
No
(12% above 2010 levels
in 2020)
Yes
Yes
No
(12% above 2000 levels
by 2012)
621
2180
3,800
400 (goal)
$8.73
$36
$354
N/A
-0.13%
($29 billion)
-0.4%
($89 billion)
-0.7%
($135 billion in 2020)
N/A
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Number of Climate Change Related
Legislative Proposals: Federal Government
100
80
60
40
20
0
105th (1997-1998)
106th (1999-2000)
107th (2001-2002)
Congress
108th (2003-2004)
109th (2005-2006)
YTD
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U.S. Energy R&D Investment
Source: Reprinted from Daniel M. Kammen, Gregory F. Nemet. "Real Numbers: Reversing the Incredible Shrinking Energy R&D
Budget." Issues in Science Technology, Volume 84, September, 2005.
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Top Innovators and Emitters by World
Region
North America
Western Europe
Japan and NICs
China
CIS
Gross Expenditure on R&D
(1994)
Scientific Output (SCI
Publications, 1995)
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(1998)
India & C. Asia
Latin America
Oceania
C & E Europe
SE Asia
Africa
Arab States
0.0%
5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Percent of World Total
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Company Initiatives
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AEP
• “IGCC technology appears to have the greatest potential for
meeting AEP’s long term goals. During the course of our
evaluation, the company concluded that accelerating IGCC
technology development to reach commercial availability by
2015 or before must become a high priority for AEP.”
Source: AEP. “An Assessment of AEP’s Actions to Mitigate the Economic Impacts of Emissions Policies.” August 31, 2004.
(http://www.aep.com/environmental/reports/shareholderreport/docs/FullReport.pdf)
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CO2 Capture
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AEP Ohio River Valley CO2 Storage Project Mountaineer Plant
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Southern Company:
Technology and Innovation
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)
– Power Systems Development Facility (PSDF)
• “The total plant cost for a 500-MW power plant with a
subcritical steam cycle is projected to be less than $850/kW
with an efficiency of almost 47 percent (HHV). Such a plant
could produce electricity more economically than a natural
gas combined cycle as early as 2006.”
– Orlando Utilities Commission
• SCR Development for high alkaline ashes
• Mercury Control Research
– Full-scale testing of Activated Carbon Injection
• Development of a Fine Particulate Agglomerator
• NuStart – Nuclear Consortium
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New Ways to Burn Coal:
Many Routes to Electricity Without Any CO2
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Comparative Costs in 2010
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
IGCC w/o cap
80
Wind@29% CF
70
NGCC@$6
Biomass
60
PC w/o cap
50
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
40
50
Source: EPRI Analysis
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What’s Possible: Comparative Costs in 2020
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
100
90
80
70
PC w/cap/t/s
NGCC@$6
60
50
Wind
IGCC w/cap/t/s
Biomass
Nuclear
40
30
0
10
20
30
Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
40
50
Source: EPRI Analysis
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FutureGen Industrial Alliance
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Nuclear Power: Electricity without CO2
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What’s Really Happening…
• Kyoto leverage is small
– Shell game accounting
– Important political symbolism
• Real Policies being implemented “bottom up”
• U.S. notably absent
– State-based policies with limited leverage
– Some technology investment, but dangers…
– Some firm-led activities (AEP, BP, GE)
• Longer term: national policies to be “stitched together”
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Supplemental Slides
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USA Primary Energy Mix, 1860-2004
100%
New Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
80%
Coal
Oil
60%
40%
20%
0%
1800
Traditional Biomass
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
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1980
2000
56
Number of CDM Projects by Country
as of 12/23/05
(Countries with >20 projects are labeled)
Philippines
4%
Brazil
19%
Mexico
5%
Chile
4%
China
4%
India
38%
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Volume of CDM Projects (tCO2e/y) by Country
as of 12/23/05
(Countries with >1% Marketshare are labeled)
China
13%
Nigeria
4%
Argentina
5%
India
17%
Chile
7%
Mexico
14%
Brazil
14%
Republic of Korea
11%
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0
Texas
California
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Florida
Indiana
Illinois
New York
Louisiana
Michigan
Georgia
Kentucky
North Carolina
Alabama
Tennessee
New Jersey
Missouri
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
South Carolina
Iowa
Maryland
Kansas
Massachusetts
Utah
Arkansas
Wyoming
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Dakota
Nevada
Oregon
Nebraska
Alaska
Connecticut
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
New Hampshire
Delaware
Idaho
Rhode Island
Vermont
DC
Million Metric Tonnes CO2
700
500
400
60%
50%
300
40%
200
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Cumulative %
Where do US Emissions Come From?
100%
600
90%
80%
70%
30%
20%
100
10%
0%
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