Transcript World Meteorological Organization Working together in

World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management
By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO
Geoffrey Love, Ph.D.
Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Departments
CCL Technical Conference
16-18 February, 2010
Antalya, Turkey
www.wmo.int
Paradigm shift from post disaster response
to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
•
In most countries disaster risk management has been
focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!)
•
In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework
for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan)
– New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing
risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues)
– International community is working to assist countries in
implementing the HFA
Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a
wide range of opportunities for meteorological,
hydrological and climate services!
Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by
Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Extreme
Temp.
4%
Extreme
Temp.
5%
Drought
5%
Epidemic,
insects
13%
Tsunami
0,4%
Windstorm
15%
Flood
33%
Earthquake
16%
Earthquake
8%
Volcano
1,6%
Flood
10%
Drought
30%
Slides
5%
Windstorm
27%
Wild Fires
3%
Number of
events
Tsunami
1%
Earthquake
22%
90% of events
70% of casualties
75% of economic losses
Loss of life
Drought
5%
Flood
25%
Windstorm
43%
Volcano
1%
Tsunami
12%
Epidemic,
insects
10%
Extreme
Temp.
2%
Economic
losses
Wild Fires
2%
Source: EM-DAT:
The OFDA/CRED
International
Disaster Database www.em-dat.net Université
Catholique de
Louvain - Brussels Belgiumc
Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters
are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.
Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters,
Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural
hazards (1980-2007)
Economic losses
(billions300
US $)
Loss of life
Number of
disaster events
700,000
2,000
Hydrometeorological
Geological
600,000
1,800
Hydrometeorological
Geological
1,600
Hydrometeorological
Geological
500,000
200
1,400
400,000
1,200
1,000
300,000
800
100
200,000
600
400
100,000
200
0
0
A
Afr
ica sia
So
N
P
E
uth -C A acifi urop
e
Am m & c
eri
ca Carr
.
Number of events
As
Afr
ia
ica
So
uth
NP
C A acif Euro
pe
ic
m
Am
&C
eri
arr
ca
.
Loss of life
0
Afr
ica
As
ia
So
uth
NPa
CA
cifi
c
m
Am
&C
eri
arr
ca
.
Economic Losses
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Eu
rop
e
Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related
Extremes are on the Rise !
Energy
Disasters impacts
many sectors!
Aral Sea
Transportation
Water Resource
Management
Intensity
Strong Wind
People
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Agriculture
Urban areas
Hazard, vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
Drought
Heatwaves
Frequency
Need for
Multi-sectoral risk
management
Six Components of An Effective National
Disaster Risk Management Framework
1
Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources
at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency)
Risk Assessment
Historical Hazard
databases
2
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and forward looking
hazard trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Preparedness (saving lives):
early warning systems
emergency planning and
response
3
Prevention (Reduce economic
losses):
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CATastrophe insurance &
bonds
5
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
4
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training across agencies 6
Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence
for Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
Number of
lives at risk
$ at risk
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Need for historical and
real time data
Statistical analysis tools
climate forecasts and
trend analysis
Impacts:
 population density
 agricultural land
 urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
Need for Socioeconomic impacts
data and analysis
tools
This
information is
critical for
decision-making
and
development of
strategies to
reduce the risks
Destruction of
buildings and
infrastructure
Reduction in crop
yields
Business
interruption
Need for risk assessment
tools combining hazard,
asset and exposure
information
Estimating the Risk with Consideration for
Climate Variability and Changes!
1: Hazard Assessment
Historical
Statisitical
hazard
analysis
events
+
Future climate ,
hazard trends
(seasonal, inter
annual, decadal)
Key
Input database
1: Hazard Mapping
Hazard Model
Hazard
estimate
Hazard
maps
Land cover
and elevation
Vulnerability /
Damage Model
Possible Inputs
Local data
Product
Risk maps
Exposures
Population
distribution
Model
3: Risk Mapping
& Loss Estimation
Probable Loss
estimate
2: Damage Functions
Cost Benefit
2: Asset Inventory and Valuation
Economic data
Portfolio
losses /
mitigation
options
Scenario Events
4: Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools
Risk Assessment Requires a
Variety of Climate Services….
• Historical and real-time hazard databases
and metadata
• Statistical hazard analysis and mapping
tools
• Forward looking hazard trend analysis
- Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts
- Probabilitic climate forecasts and long-term hazard
trend analysis (seasonal to interannual, decadal)
Th
er
st St
or ro
m ng
or
w
lig ind
ht s
ni
n
D g
ro
H ug
ea h
Fl t w t
R ash ave
iv
er flo
flo od
o
H din
ai
ls g
D tor
en m
se
C
Sm
ol fo
g
d
ok H
e, eav wav
e
H Du y
az
s
ar st o no
ds r w
t o Ha
z
Ea a vi e
a
C
oa r th tio
n
s q
Fo T tal ua
r
k
o
f
re
p lo es
La st o ica od
nd r w l c ing
sl
i y
id l dl clo
a
n
e
or nd e
m fir
Fr ud e
ee sl
z id
St ing e
or r
W
m ain
at
su
er
r
A
irb bor To ge
or ne rn
ne h ad
s az o
M ubs ard
ar
s
in ta n
ce
e
ha s
Sa z a
nd rds
s
A tor
va m
la
n
D Vo
Ts ch
es
l
c
er an un e
a
tl
oc ic e mi
us ve
t s nt
w s
ar
m
un
d
Number of countries that archive
data for the specified hazard
WMO 2006 Country-level DRR
Survey Indicates that ….
Over 70 % of NMHS are
challenged in supporting risk
assessment!!!
140
120
100
80
60
0
Main needs are:
• Modernisation of
observation networks
• Data rescue
• Data management
systems
40
20
•
Maintaining standard
historical hazard
database and metadata
•
Hazard analysis and
mapping tools
 Statistical analysis
 Climate modelling
Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)
Increasingly more countries are developping
Early Warning Systems for fast on-set events….
National
Government
DRR coordination
mechanisms
1
Aligned policies, plans, resources,
coordination
4
Warning dissemination
4
5
Coordinated National
Technical Agencies and Ministries
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health, Agricuture (etc.)
responsible for
emergency
preparedness and
response
feedback
5
Meteorological
Local
Government
2
3
4
Warning dissemination
feedback
5
Community Emergency
Plans and Prepared
WMO has partnered up with other agencies to
Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines
for Early Warning Systems
Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach
Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles
Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more good practices on the
way)
Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services
Cuba
Bangladesh
Tropical
Cyclone
Preparedness Cyclone Early
Warning
Programme
System
France
“Vigilance
System”
Germany
Shanghai
USA
The Warning
Multi-Hazard
Multi-Hazard
Emergency Early Warning Management of
the Deutscher
Preparedness
System
Wetterdienst
Programme
First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO
and Springer Verlag in 2010
Millions of casualties per decade
3
Geological
2.66
Hydrometeorological
2.5
Loss of life from
hydrometeorological
disasters are
decreasing…
Billions of USD per decade
2
1.73
1.5
1
0.39
0.5
0.22
0.17
0.05
0
56-65
66-75
Geological
76-85
400
345
350
300
250
200
160
150
50
0
103
88
4
11
14
56-65
66-75
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED
International Disaster Database
24
86-95
0.22
96-05
decade
BUT
economic
losses are on
the way up!
Hydrometeorological
100
0.25
495
500
450
0.67
0.65
47
76-85
86-95
96-05
decade
Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools
provide unprecedented opportunities
…. to support sectoral risk assessment
and management!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Infrastructure and Urban planning
Land zoning
Insurance / Finance
Agricultural productivity and food security
Tourism
Health epidemics
Water resource management
Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance
Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms
Which Risks?
Financial risks
What type of
Financial tools?
Who Could
Benefit?
CAT insurance &
bonds
Individuals
Historical and real-time
data (Fundamental for
development of these
markets!)
Seasonal to inter-annual
climate forecasts
Other
Decadal climate trend
analysis
Government
Weather-indexed
insurance and
derivatives
Regional
Catastrophe
Insurance
Facilities
Requirements for
Hydro-Met Services?
Companies
Other emerging
products
Long term trend
analysis (long-term
market strategy)
WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-
2007/index_en.html
WMO Workshop on Catastrophe and
Weather-Indexed Insurance
December 2007, WMO HQ
Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services,
WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)
USER Perspectives were discussed:
•
Information requirements (data and forecasts):
– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)
– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and
settlement)
– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
– Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk,
solvency analysis and long-term strategy)
•
Technical support and Service delivery needs
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Major Initiatives Underway for Development of
Climate Services for (Re)Insurance
• Drivers are
– Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the
companies to report of their climate risk
– Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate research
community to develop relevant climate services
– Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have
initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR,
GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and
many more)
• WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended
collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives
for benefit of more countries around the world
Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction
(Many other examples exist)
DECISION
MAKERS
DECISIONS
Emergency Services
Government
Authorities
Insurance
Public, Media
Local – National
Government
Insurance
Suppliers
Public, Media
Emergency
planning activation
and response
Evacuations,
inventory, preparing
houses
SERVICES
Urban planners
Local to national
Governments
Banks
Insurance
Negotiators
Parlimentarian
Local/national
governments
Private sector
Urban & coastal
Emergency
Preparedness
Inventory: Food,
Construction Materials,
Shelter, Emergency
funds
Strategic Planning
Building codes
Infrastructure &
Urban Development
and Retrofitting
Land Zoning and
Planning
International
negotiations
and
agreements
National
policies and
legilation
Short to medterm
weather forecasts:
Probabilistic seasonal
forecasts: Probabilities of
Future Decadal
trend analysis: of
Tropical cyclone
Forecasts and warnings
severity and intensity of
tropical cyclones
Climate
Change
scenarios –
IPCC Process
Next hour to
10 days
Season to year
severity and
intensity of tropical
cyclones
Decade
Long term
Scenarios
WCC-III Recommendations on
Climate Services for DRM
1. Identification of various user-communities and their
requirements
–
(eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance)
2. Increased investments in observations, data rescue
programmes and statistical analysis of hazards
3. Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal,
interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented
opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR
–
–
Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM
Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools
4. Developing climate related information and decision
tools for DRR
Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks
DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 – Present)
Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with
World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO
Central Asia
and Caucasus
South East
Europe
WMO
Shanghai MHEWS Demo
South East
Asia
Central
America and
Caribbean
Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in
Multi-Hazard EWS
SADC
Key Messages:
1. Disaster and Climate Risk Management are
interlinked development issues
2. Development of Climate Services should be part of the
national development agenda and programming
3. There is need for:
a.
b.
c.
d.
Historical and real-time hazard databases and statistical hazard analysis
tools
Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR applications
Identification, segmentation of users and understanding of their needs
and requirements (public and private sectors)
Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk assessment for various
sectors
For more information please contact
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction
Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel. 41.22.730.8006
Fax. 41.22.730.8023
Email. [email protected]
http://www.wmo.int/disasters
Leslie Malone
Scientific Officer
Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch
Climate & Water Department
World Meteorological Organization
Tel: 41.22.730.8220
Fax: 41.22.730.8042
Email: [email protected]
Thank you
Merci
Спасибо
Gracias
‫شكرا‬
谢谢