Transcript Document
Neutrino Point Source Search Strategies for AMANDA-II and Results from 2005 J. Braun, A. Karle, T. Montaruli For the IceCube Collaboration Motivation • No extraterrestrial high energy neutrino source yet observed – Need larger detectors and more sophisticated analysis methods • Current searches: Use event direction (time) • Construct a search to fully utilize – Event energy estimation – Event direction – Detector angular resolution ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 2 Method • Energy correlated observable: Number of hit channels • For each event at position xi, assign a probability of belonging to a source at xo with spectral index g • Model the detector point spread function Gaussian ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II as a 2D 3 Method • A ±5o declination band centered on the source location contains N total events and is modeled as a mixture of signal and background in a likelihood function: • The Background PDF Bi depends on • Minimize –log(L) with respect to number of signal events and spectral index • Significance is measured by the ratio of best likelihood and background-only likelihood: ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 4 Discovery Potential 35% less events required for 5s detection at d = 42.5o 90% Chance of Discovery 90% of sources with the given E-2 flux are detected at 5s (3s) significance ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 5 Sensitivity 90% confidence level sensitivity to E-2 spectra ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 6 Results for 2005 • 1.8 billion raw events recorded in 2005 • 6001 events survive quality cuts, 887 above d = 10o • Search in range -5o < d < 82o ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 7 2005 All-Sky Results Largest Excess: 3.6s d=48o , a=2.75h Log10(p-value) 69 out of 100 sky maps randomized in RA contain an excess of at least 3.6s ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 8 Results for Candidate Sources • The method is applied separately to a list of 26 candidate sources to enhance discovery potential P-value m90 38.2 ~1 5.9 253.5 39.8 0.184 18.1 Cyg. X-1 299.6 35.2 0.414 12.9 Cyg. X-3 308.1 41.0 0.458 11.0 NGC 1275 50.0 41.5 0.064 22.4 Crab 83.6 22.0 ~1 9.24 MGRO J2109+37 304.8 36.8 0.152 20.1 Object RAo Dec. Mrk 421 166.1 Mrk 501 o E2F < m90.10-11 TeV cm-2 s-1 ICRC 2007 • No striking excesses found • Most significant source is NGC 1275 (Perseus A), p = 0.064 – 3 events near source location (~1.5 expected) – 80% chance of randomly observing this significance from a source on the list 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 9 What if a Source is Observed? • Suppose Markarian 421 produces 8 signal events in AMANDA following an E-2 spectrum and the background is well described by atmospheric neutrinos • >50% probability of 5s detection, assuming no trial penalty. 8 E-2 Signal Events • Minimization of log(L) with respect to signal strength and spectral index yields an estimate of both parameters • Approximate 2 log(L / Lˆ ) as a c2 distribution with two degrees of freedom ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 10 What if a Source is Observed? • Suppose Markarian 421 produces 8 signal events in AMANDA following an E-2 spectrum and the background is well described by atmospheric neutrinos • >50% probability of 5s detection, assuming no trial penalty. 50 E-2 Signal Events • Minimization of log(L) with respect to signal strength and spectral index yields an estimate of both parameters • Approximate 2 log(L / Lˆ ) as a c2 distribution with two degrees of freedom ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 11 Benefit of Likelihood Method • Other benefits: – Position confidence contours can be drawn similarly using information from the likelihood function – Data from detectors with different angular resolution can be combined more efficiently ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 12 Conclusions • New methods enhance point source sensitivity and discovery potential by 30% • Adding an energy correlated observable additionally allows estimation of signal spectral index in the case of discovery • No significant excess observed in 2005 ICRC 2007 2005 Neutrino Point Source Search with AMANDA-II 13