Transcript www.statslab.cam.ac.uk

Climate Change Seminar:
science background, and
transport trends
Frank Kelly
University of Cambridge
8 September 2006
References: www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/climate/
Overview
• Science Background - IPCC
• Transport Trends
• Trains and planes
August 1992,
GOES-7 satellite.
Hurricane Andrew.
(Courtesy of F. Hasler, et
al, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric
Administration,
and NASA)
www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/carbon_cycle/intro_global.html
Transport trends
UK Emissions of carbon dioxide: by end user
million tonnes of carbon equivalent
100
80
Industry
60
Domestic
40
Transport
20
Other
0
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
Reference: National Statistics Online
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7280.xls
2001
GDP and Transport Growth, 1952-1999
Passenger (all modes)
Freight (all modes)
GDP
300
280
260
Index (1958=100)
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
100
Reference: 'Transport: Trends and Challenges', an Issues Paper for PIU
Strategic Futures Seminar 13 November 2001, Figure 1
http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/transport/background.pdf
Domestic freight transport by mode:
goods moved 1953-2001
Road
Water
Rail
Pipeline
300
billion tonne km
250
200
150
100
50
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
1958
1953
0
Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition),
Chapter 9, Table 9.5
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/
dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3
Passenger transport: by mode 1952-2002
Buses and coaches
Motor cycles
Pedal cycles
Rail
Air
Cars, vans and taxis
700
500
400
300
200
100
Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition),
Chapter 9, Table 9.1
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/
dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3
2002
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
0
1952
billion passenger km
600
Passenger travel by mode: air and pedal cycle 1952-2002
Air
Pedal Cycle
25.0
billion passenger km
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
2002
1997
1992
1987
1982
1977
1972
1967
1962
1957
1952
0.0
Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition),
Chapter 9, Table 9.1
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/
dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3
Average trip length, by purpose: 1985/6 and 2002
1985/86
2002 R
25
20
15
10
5
0
Commuting
Business
Education
Shopping
Leisure
All journeys
Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 4.10b
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/
dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3
Walk and cycle stages
1989/91
1992/94
1995/97
1999/01
2002
1985/86
600
300
500
250
miles per person per year
stages per person per year
1985/86
Distance walked and cycled
400
300
200
100
1989/91
1992/94
1995/97
1999/ 2001
200
150
100
50
0
0
Walk
Bicycle
Walk
Bicycle
Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 8.1 a & b
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/
dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3
2002
Average fuel efficiency of new cars 1970-2002
39
37
miles per gallon
35
33
31
29
27
25
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainable
development for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator D15
http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf
Real changes in the cost of transport and
disposable income: 1974 to 2002
Petrol/oil
All motoring
Rail
Bus
Disposable income
220
Price index (1974=100)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainable
development for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator T4
http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf
1998 Road Sector Marginal Costs
12.00
Pence per vehicle km
9.00
Upper Estimate
Lower Estimate
6.00
3.00
0.00
Congestion
Accidents
Air Pollution
Noise
Climate
Change
Reference: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, “Surface
Transport Costs and Charges: Great Britain 1998”, page 45
http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/STCC/downloads/SurfaceTransportCostsReport.pdf
Marginal external costs and tax paid by road users
Pence per km
Marginal external Environment
cost of and safety
congestion (a)
costs (b)
Fuel duty and
VAT on duty
Uncovered
(C) externality (a+b)-c
2000
7.3
2.2
5.2
4.3
2010
12.3
1.6
3.9
10.1
Reference: DfT Road Pricing Feasibility Study, Annex B - Modelling Results
and Analysis; Figure B1
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_roads/documents/page/dft_roads_029735.pdf
Trains and planes
London-Edinburgh
kg of CO2 per passenger per journey
• Aviation
96.4
• Rail
11.9
• Car
71.0
• Coach
9.2
• Lorry (per tonne)
116.9
Class 91 electric high speed train 70% occupied,
coach with 40 passengers, and 1.56 persons per car
Hansard - written answer - 8 July 2004
London-Edinburgh
(litres per seat)
Primary fuel litres/seat
100
75
50
Passenger
Loading
25
100%
50%
25%
0
Plane
Car
225 km/h
Train
350 km/h
Train
The comparison is between an Airbus A371, a VW Passat TDI and two hypothetical trains,
running at 225 and 350 km/h respectively.
Kemp R. J. Environmental impact of high-speed rail. Institution of Mechanical
Engineers. Seminar on High Speed Rail Developments, 21 April 2004
Historical vehicle mass per passenger seat for
UK and Japanese rolling stock
UK vehicles
Japanese
vehicles
Contrails and Aircraft-Induced
Cirrus
Source: NOAA-12 AVHRR satellite data (Mannstein, 1997)
Distribution of fuel burned by
civil aviation, 1992
Research proceeds…
Source: TRADEOFF Project, Sausen et al, 2005
Discussion