EMPIRE- modelling the future European power system under different climate policies

Asgeir Tomasgard, Christian Skar, Gerard Doorman , Bjørn H. Bakken, Ingeborg Graabak FME CenSES Centre for Sustainable Energy Studies

The transition to a sustainable power system

Challenge The challenge for the energy system in years to come, is how to satisfy a continually growing global energy demand and at the same time reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. • • • • Technology choices (examples) Renewable energy Energy efficiency and saving Fuel substitution in transport Carbon Capture and Sequestration • • • Policy instruments (examples) Tax, e.g. a carbon price Subsidies, e.g. a feed in tariff Regulation, e.g. Emission Performance Standards

Purpose of our study

Evaluate the contribution of different policy scenarios on Power markets and power demand Generation expansion Grid expansion Emissions In particular look at Norway ´s role in the transition

The team

The Ramona-EL power system model

The GCAM tool

• • • • Technologically detailed integrated assessment model.

14 geopolitical regions Emissions of 16 greenhouse gases Runs through 2095 in 5-year time steps

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Ramona-EL

• • • Power system design and operation Models each European country ´ s generation capacity and import/export channels, not physical lines Time horizon until 2050 – investments in 5 year steps Model operational time periods: demand, supply (stochastic wind and solar PV) and optimal dispatch. • • Taking fuel prices, expected load and costs as input Provides a cost minimization capacity expansion plan for Europe, detailed for each country Load profiles from ENTSO-E and national data Inflow, wind and solar profiles from national data Costs, expected load and fuel prices from GCAM

Hourly supply and demand

In total 4000 hours used to represent different dispatch situations over 50 years 4 seasons 24 hours sequences Daily load patterns taken from 3 days per season + extreme days

Scenario descriptions

• Global 202020 scenario – A policy scenario inspired by the European 20-20-20 targets. • Renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency improvements and share of bio fuel in the transportation sector are set for different regions across the world.

• 450 ppm stabilization scenario – A policy scenario where the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is limited to 450 ppm CO 2 -eq by the end of the century. Emission reduction is achieved by implementing a carbon price

European electricity demand

9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 Reference 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 450 ppm 20 55 20 60 20 65 20 70 Global202020 20 75 20 80 20 85 20 90 20 95

Figure 1: Europe (WE+EE) electricity demand for the different policy scenarios

CO

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prices

$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 Reference 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 450 ppm 20 55 20 60 20 65 20 70 Global202020 20 75 20 80 20 85 20 90 20 95

Figure 1: Carbon dioxide emission price in Europe for the different policy scenarios

Installed capacity in power market 2050

The Ramona-EL analysis

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Results for 2050 Global 202020 scenario 450 ppm stabilization scenario

Energy mix 202020

Energy mix 450

The need for flexibility

High variations in non-dispatchable renewable production from wind and solar PV Global 202020: 450 ppm stabilization: 21.4% non-dispatchable 14,2 % non-dispatchable • • • • Need flexibility and balancing Seasonal Weeks Hourly Shorter

New infrastructure in 2050 - 202020

New infrastructure 450

Example: Power exchange

European demand 4800TWh Norwegian demand 162 TWh New Norwegian cap . 20.1 GW Net export 29 TWh European demand 5800 TWh Norwegian demand 197 TWh New Norwegian cap . 20.1 GW Net import 7 TWh

Flexible Norwegian energy as a service to Europe I Flexible Storage capacity of 85 TWh in the Norwegian reservoirs. This storage volume has most of the time at least 10 20 TWh free capacity reservoir Hydropower plant

Energy content (%) in Norwegian hydropower reservoirs (2002-2013) 50 40 30 20 10 0 200 2 100 90 80 70 60 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 Figure 1: Energy stored in Norwegian hydropower reservoirs. (Data from NVE)

DC cable Line pack Gas power plant

Example: Natural gas exchange

Figure 1: Illustration of the electricity production from natural gas in the four countries where Norway has an export pipeline (UK, Germany, France and Belgium) in the 202020 scenario (GWh/h).

The possible inventory changes in a typical pipeline we looked at is in one hour approximately 9 GWh of electricity .

Flexible Norwegian energy as a service to Europe II 16.00

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Figure 1: Illustration of the flexibility to change the inventory level in one of the large export pipelines Flexible reservoir Storage using linepack in gas pipelines : DC cable Flexibility of 2% within the hour, and 15% in 12 hours. For the given pipeline, this means that the inventory could be changed with approximately 134 GWh within 12 hours. Hydropower plant Line pack Gas power plant