Transcript EFEKTET POLITIKE TW SISTEMEVE ZGJEDHORE: SIMULIM ME …

POLITICAL EFFECTS OF ELECTORAL
SYSTEMS: Simulation in Kosovo
Arben Qirezi
SUPPORTED BY
7/6/2015
Aim of the Study
• Informing all involved stakeholders
• Fostering the debate about electoral systems
• Informing public on electoral systems
• Identifying motives for various political
preferences by political parties
Which electoral systems
• Single Member Plurality (SMP)
• Alternative Vote (AV)
• Single Transferable Vote (STV)
Debate on Electoral System in Kosovo
during 2001
• Disagreements between Kosovar and
International representatives.
• Exclusion of this topic from the talks on
Constitutional Framework for PISG.
Which systems were discussed in
2001?
• LDK and PDK representatives wanted SMP
with the support of some Western countries
• OSCE insisted and prevailed on PR with
reserved seats
Effects of the SMP
Strengths and Weaknesses of the SMP
SMP
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Simplicity
Disproportionality
Direct representation of voters in districts
Majority of votes are lost-go in vain
Stable government
Opportunities for political dialogue are reduced
Voters know for which policies they will vote
More ideology is ingrained in politics and political
tensions can be higher
Reduces number of parties
Damages smaller parties and reduces political
options
Method for creation of districts
• Ten districts were created in muniicpalities
with less than 1% of voters
• Remaining 110 districts were distributed
proportionally
• One municipality – One District
Simulation for Prizren
Trends
• Domination of bigger parties
• Less opportunity for ethnic parties
• Opportunity for disaggregation of the minority
votes
• De-motivates ethnic voting
• Larger parties may reach out more to minority
voters
Simulation in Peja
Trends
• Parties with string geographic base have good
chances with SMP (AAK)
• SMP may, however, change the situation.
Simulation in Gjakovë
Trends
• Same trends like in Peja – geographic base
• Gjakova supports the claim that SMP can
foster changes because fo the importance of
the candidate
Simuliation for Gjilan
Trends
• Parties that do good in PR because of their
wide spread of vote, will not do well in SMP if
they do not have geographical base (VV)
Alternative Vote
ALTERNATIVE VOTING
ADVANTAGES
EENABLES THE CHOICE AMONG MANY
CANDIDATES AND ALLOWS PREFERENCES
DIRECT REPRESENTATION
HAS A MODERATING EFECT
DISADVANTAGES
ENABLES
AGREEMENTS
BETWEEN
PARTIES/CANDIDATES
AND
TACTICAK
VOTING NOT ALWAYS INSTIGATED INA
MODERATE WAY
A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ITIAL VOTES
MAY BE LOST
THE NUMBER OF MINORITIES IN KOSOVO IS
TOO SMALL FOR THIS SISTEM
How does AV works
• Alternative vote is very much recommended
in multi-ethnic countries
• Alternative vote can moderate ethnic leaders
• It can be voted for first, second …preference
• Candidate that in the first round has more
votes, but lacks 50% + 1 will not achieve to be
elected because he lacks the preferential
votes
How AV functions?
Single Transferable Vote (STV)
STV
STRENGTHS
Direct vote for the candidate
Direct representation of voters and gives
chance to all parties
Has moderating effects
As a result of fostering tactical voting, may
facilitate easier coalition formation
WEAKNESSES
Voting process is complex
Counting is even more complex
There can be agreements between parties
for tactical voting
STV generates PR, but may confuse policies
STV characteristics
• Multi-member districts
• 3 – 5 candidates per district
• Voters may vote for more than one candidate
and party according to their preferences
STV Characteristics
• Optional preference
Vote for one, up to many preferences
• Mandatory prefence
More than one and up to all candidates in the
list.
STV functioning
• Kuota Droop = {Total number of valid
votes/Total number of seats+1} + 1.
• 1+(1,000/5+1)=167, 67
STV example from a district in Ireland
• Valid votes: 33,404
• Candidates: 5
• Seats: 3
• Quota Droop: 33,404 / 4 = 8.351+1 = 8,352
Counting of votes in STV
• First round – First preferences
• Second round – second preferences of eliminated
candidate
• Third round – Left over from the elected
candidate as second preferences, or from the
third preferences of the eliminated candidate
until the next candidate(s) reaches the Droop
Quota
Main conclusions related to Kosovo
SMP
• Convenient because of the
scale of ethnic homogeneity
• Problem of accommodation
of parties
• Huge political turn around
due to evolution according
to PR
• Minority representation is a
problem, but can be solved
Two-round system
• Not convenient for
assembly elections
• Convenient for presidential
and mayoral elections
• The last mayoral elections
have proven the ability of
two-round system to
generate change
Main conclusions related to Kosovo
Alternative vote
• Generates moderation
• Small number of minorities
• Counting can be
problematic
Single Transferable Vote
• The most realistic
alternative
• Attractive
• May generate moderation
and change
• Increases accountability of
MP-s
• Counting can be
problematic
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION