Transcript Slide 1
Skills for Europe's future
Future skill needs in Europe
Medium-term forecast
Alena Zukersteinova
Cedefop
2 October 2008 1 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Cedefop
European agency for the development of vocational education and training (VET)
Research, analysis, scientific advice and networking to provide evidence and support in: developing/implementing VET policy European cooperation in VET
2 October 2008 2 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Why skill needs analyses for Europe
to fill existing information deficits on future skill needs (for all actors on the labour market) to support evidence-based policy-making in LLL, employment and social policy
European push:
- Council resolution on new skills for new jobs (15/11/2007) - Spring 2008 Council/Presidency conclusions (13-14/3/2008) - Council conclusions on a jobs and skills initiative (9/6/2008)
2 October 2008 3 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
What forecasts…
can provide?
– systematic analysis of the implications of continuation of past trends and patterns of behaviour – alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions – basis for intelligent and informed debate and further research
cannot provide?
– precise predictions that can be used for detailed manpower planning (not a crystal ball) – qualitative information on skills and competences
2 October 2008 4 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Modular approach
the Framework Multi-sectoral macroeconomic model Stock and expansion demand by occupation Stock and expansion Replacement demand by occupation/qualification demand by qualification 2 October 2008 Job openings by occupation 5 Job openings by qualification YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Shift towards services continues…
2 October 2008 6 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future 60 Millions Distribution and transport
Trends by sector (EU-25
+
)
40 30 20 50 10 Business & other services Non-marketed services Manufacturing Construction Primary sector & utilities 0 1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Forecast
11 12 13 14 15 2 October 2008 7 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future 13.3
15
17.9
All industries Primary sector and utilities Manufacturing
-3.1
-2.3
-2.9
-0.5
Construction
Sectoral
Distribution and transport
net change
Business and other services
and
Non-marketed services
structure (EU-25
+
)
100% 80% -5 7.8
26.7
0 0.4
1.4
5.6
23.8
3.2
3.5
5.1
5.9
1996-2006 2006-2015 8.9
5 10 million jobs 4.2
22.4
11.6
Prima ry se ctor a nd utilitie s Ma nufa cturing Se rvice s 20 60% 2 October 2008 40% 20% 8 0% 65.5
70.6
73.4
YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm 2006 2015 1996
Skills for Europe's future
Demographic developments create significant replacement demand…
2 October 2008 9 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Legislators, senior officials and managers
Total
Professionals
demand
Technicians and associate professionals
by occupation
Clerks
(EU-25
+
)
Service workers, shop/market sales workers expansion demand
(net change) of
13,3
million jobs +
replacement demand
of
51
million jobs =
64,3 million job openings Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations 2 October 2008 10 2006-2015 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm Expansion demand Replacement demand Total job openings 12
Skills for Europe's future
Danger of polarisation of jobs…
2 October 2008 11 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future 100% 80%
Occupational structure (EU-25
+
)
60% 40% 34.9
26.0
2 October 2008 37.8
25.1
40.6
24.1
High-skilled non manual occupations Skilled non-manual occupations 20% 29.9
25.6
22.9
Skilled manual occupations 0% 8.6
1996 12 10.9
2006 11.8
2015 Elementary occupations YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Qualification requirements are raising across all occupations, even for elementary jobs…
2 October 2008 13 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future Net change 2006 - 2015 3.3
8.3
High-skilled non-manual occupations -0.4
Low-skilled non-manual occupations 1.1
2.4
Skilled manual occupations -4.8
-2.3
0.8
1.5
High qualification Medium qualification Low qualification 0.9
Elementary occupations 3.6
-1.0
-5 0 5 10 million jobs Cedefop-Photomuseum Award 2007: People at work, people at training; Schlamann, A. interSHOPs. 2 October 2008 14 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Million jobs 250
Qualification
200
trends and
150
structure (EU-25
+
)
100 20,9 % 46,2 % 50 32,9 % 0 2 October 2008 15 Skills for Europe's future 25,3 % High qualification 48,6 % Medium qualification 26,2% Low qualification 29,3 % 49,9 % 20,8 % YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future High qualification
13
12.4
13
Medium qualification
Net change by
Low qualification
qualification (EU-25
+
)
All qualifications
-8
-8.6
2 October 2008 9.5
1996-2006 2006-2015
18
13.3
-10 16 -5 0 million jobs 5 10 15 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm 20
Total
High qualification
demand by
Medium qualification
qualification (EU-25
+
)
Low qualification -20 -8.6
-10 Skills for Europe's future 0 4.8
10 12.4
12.9
20 30 25.3
9.5
24.8
34.2
40 13.3
13.3
50 Million jobs 60 Expansion demand Replacement demand Total job openings 70 51.0
64.3
2006-2015 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm 2 October 2008 All qualifications 17
Skills for Europe's future
Challenges, risks and opportunities
Challenges: a shift of skills demand – globalisation – demographic developments – skill-biased technological change – organisational change The risks – the risk of mismatches – the risk of jobs polarisation Opportunities for education and training policies – adaptation and development of a high skilled workforce – but also an optimal skills mix (more general and non-routine skills)
2 October 2008 18 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Future priorities in forecasting
Continuing dialogue
: with country experts and stakeholders
Overcome data problems
: policy support needed to refine data
Further refinement
: the models/framework
Complementary research:
forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level
2 October 2008 19 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
On-going work & future plans
•
Medium-term forecast of skills supply in Europe
(EU-27, 2020) and identification of possible imbalances between supply and demand – results early 2009 •
Regular forecasts of skill needs and skills supply in Europe
(2010, 2012) – support from DG Employment • New initiative on
employers ´ surveys as a tool for identification of skill needs
– feasibility work started • Contribution and support to the Commission „
new skills for new jobs
“ initiative
2 October 2008 20 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm
Skills for Europe's future
Contact details for more information:
Cedefop:
www.cedefop.europa.eu
Skillsnet
: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet
Alena Zukersteinova
Torsten Dunkel
Peter Szovics
2 October 2008 21 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm