Transcript Slide 1

Using census data to
understand spatial
growth patterns in cities
Leanne Johnson
Urban Research Leader, BITRE
Who we are
• BITRE is the research arm of the federal Department of
Infrastructure and Transport
– responsibility for cities policy sits within Department
• Cities Research Team
– Small team of 3 people within BITRE
– Role is to provide analytical support and research that
informs Australian Government policy development on cities,
as well as wider community understanding
Policy support - Major Cities Unit
• National Urban Policy (NUP) to be released in 2011
– NUP Discussion Paper released last year
• sets out Australian Government’s thinking on a national approach to urban
development and the challenges we must address
• Sought public comment (closed 1 March).
• MCU’s NUP Background paper and State of Australian
Cities report draw extensively on census data to explore
issues of productivity, sustainability & livability in our cities
Policy support – other key clients
• Policy Development Unit
• Sydney Aviation Capacity Taskforce
• High Speed Rail
• Nation Building
• COAG Reform Council
– Review of capital city strategic planning
systems
Research: Population growth, jobs growth
and commuting flows in cities
• Objectives
– To identify recent spatial changes in employment and
population within Australia’s five major cities
– To investigate how commuting behaviour has
responded to these changes
– To analyse progress against urban planning goals
• Perth report released in September 2010
• Melbourne & Sydney reports in progress
Methodology
• Focus is on post-2001 period
• Analysis is undertaken at a range of spatial scales
• Information sources
–
–
–
–
ABS Census of Population and Housing
Estimated resident population
Various state/local government surveys & administrative data
Literature
Population statistics, 2001 to 2006
Indicator
Sydney SD Melbourne SD
Perth SD
Population 2006
4 281 988
3 743 015
1 519 513
Population change, 2001 to 2006
+ 153 716
+ 271 390
+ 126 508
Average annual rate of population
growth, 2001 to 2006
0.7 per cent
1.5 per cent
1.8 per cent
Population density, 2006 (UCL)
2036 per km2
1566 per km2
1258 per km2
Change in population density,
2001 to 2006
+13 per km2
+35 per km2
+23 per km2
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006
Spatial patterns of population growth
and decline, 2001 to 2006
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006
Urban consolidation, 2001 to 2006
Sydney
Perth
Melbourne
43%
62%
70%
Bew
Inner
Middle
Population growth share of ‘new growth areas’
24%
52%
Outer
60%
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006
Employment statistics, 2001 to 2006
Indicator
Sydney SD
Melbourne
SD
Perth
SD
47 000
107 000
65 000
Average annual rate of jobs growth
0.6%
1.5%
2.3%
Proportion of jobs growth occurring in
city LGA
16%
19%
17%
Proportion of jobs growth occurring in
Outer ring
75%
53%
50%
Norwest
Airport
Malaga
Increase in the number of jobs
Main outer suburban jobs growth
centre
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006
Spatial patterns of jobs growth, 2001 to 2006
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006
Jobs growth SLA
Main industry contributor
to jobs growth
1. Southbank-Docklands
Finance & Insurance
2. Wyndham North
Manufacturing
3. Melbourne Inner
Government administration
& defence
4. Greater Dandenong
Balance
Manufacturing
5. Berwick
Retail trade
6. Craigieburn
Transport & storage
7. Waverley East
Retail trade
8. Sunshine
Transport & storage
Employment growth in centres, 2001 to 2006
Percentage point change in centred employment share
Perth
Melbourne
Sydney
+0.3%
–0.4%
+0.7%
Note: For Perth, other high-order centres are all primary centres, strategic city centres and strategic town centres, other than those classified as specialised centres. For
Melbourne, it includes the central activity districts (other than the Melbourne CAD) and principal activity centres. For Sydney, it includes the regional cities and major centres.
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006.
Types of commuting flows
Mix of
commuting flows
by type in 2006
Average annual
growth rates of
different types of
commuting flows,
2001 to 2006
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006
Drivers of origin-destination commuting
flows, 2006
Explanatory variable
Sydney SD
Melbourne SD
Perth
working zone
77%
77%
82%
Employed residents in origin SLA
+
+
+
Jobs in destination SLA
+
+
+
Distance between origin & destination SLAs
–
–
–
Rail network X distance
+
+
+
Freeway network X distance
+
+
n/a
Skill mismatch between origin & destination SLAs
–
–
–
Adjusted R-squared
n/a: not yet included in regressions for this city
Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006 and rail or freeway networks
Recent progress against urban planning goals, Perth
Extent of
progress
Comments
Limiting urban sprawl
Limited
Perth continued its outward expansion, with the majority of population growth occurring in
new growth areas on the urban fringe. While only 27 per cent of population growth was in the
Inner and Middle sectors, several established suburbs grew rapidly (e.g. Perth, East Perth,
Subiaco, Stirling).
Raising population
density
Some
Perth remains a low density city, but has had some success with raising population densities in
both the inner city and outer suburbs. Although small lot sizes have become more common for
newly released land, 85 per cent of new dwellings were detached houses.
Some
About half of Perth’s employment is located in activity centres (under the new draft activity
centres hierarchy). Centred employment has grown slightly more rapidly than non -centred
employment, with specialised and industrial centres experiencing the most rapid jobs growth.
Retail-focused activity centres generally recorded below -average jobs growth.
Some
TOD is a comparatively recent initiative in Perth and lead times are long. Up to 2006, there had
been limited achievement of land use change around rail stations. Important exceptions include
the Subiaco and East Perth TODs which have high and growing density, following
redevelopment. Numerous TOD projects are underway.
Good
Outer sector employment grew by 3.7 per cent per annum, which was much higher than the
Perth average of 2.3 per cent, but similar to growth in Outer sector employed residents (3.5
per cent). The Outer sector had 30 per cent of Perth’s jobs in 2006, but was home to 50 per
cent of the population, with many outer suburbs offering limited job opportunities for local
residents. Manufacturing and Construction both added more than 5000 Outer sector jobs.
Encouraging public
transport use
Good
Public transport patronage increased by 3.3 per cent per annum and the proportion of employed
Perth residents using public transport to get to work rose from 7.5 to 8.4 per cent. However,
Perth remains a very car dependent city, with 70 per cent of employed residents travelling to
work by private vehicle in 2006.
Reducing average
commuting times &
distances
No change
Commuting travel times and distances have remained quite stable in Perth. Very short trips and
very long trips have both risen in importance, with no net effect on average commuting
distances.
Objective
Employment in centres
Transit oriented
development (TOD)
Outer suburban
employment growth
Directions
• Extend to other cities
– identify commonalities & differences across cities
• 2011 census will provide up to date picture
• Census data enables us to build evidence base
about reality of trends shaping the major cities
–
–
–
–
Where is population growth occurring?
Where is jobs growth occurring? In what industries?
What shifts are occurring in commuting flows, distance etc?
What are implications of projected population & jobs growth
for commuting flows and transport demand?
– Will identify what practical progress is being achieved
against urban planning objectives
• Which cities are achieving results on the ground? Why?
Policy applications:
National Urban Policy
Infrastructure investment
Congestion management
Commonwealth land
Sustainable Population Policy
COAG Cities Reform Agenda