Transcript to the PowerPoint presentation

World supply and demand
of tilapia
Helga Josupeit
Rome
INFOFISH Tilapia Conference,
Kuala Lumpur, October 2010
Outline
• world production
• world exports,
– with special emphasis on China
• world imports
– with special emphasis on the US market
• Forecast for 2015
• Summary
million tonnes
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
World tilapia production
capture
aquaculture
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Source FISHSTAT+
Tilapia production by major countries
4.0
millions of tonnes
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Others
Thailand
Uganda
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
1.5
1.0
0.5
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
0.0
4.0
Others
3.5
3.0
Tilapias nei
Nile tilapia
Tilapia of Mozambique
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Millon de toneladas
World tilapia production by species
Tilapia Aquaculture production
(2008, by region, in tonnes)
8000
9000
1200000
22000
130000
430000
170000
755000
900000
340000
150000
70000
2008
Aquaculture production
Aquaculture production
(2000 versus 2008,
by region, in tonnes)
9000
1200000
8000
130000
755000
170000
22000
430000
70000
2008
2000
340000
900000
150000
Aquaculture production
Trade flow, China 2009
(in tonnes)
22000
134000
18800
6600
36000
20000
Total Chinese tilapia exports: 259 000 tonnes
Chinese tilapia exports
.......................Jan-Dec.......................
2007
2008
2009
..........Jan-Jun..........
2008
2009
2010
(1000 tonnes)
USA
122.0
118.6
134.4
50.8
55.6
66.5
Mexico
39.3
36.5
36.2
17.9
17.5
21.4
Russia
19.3
17.1
21.9
9.4
10.3
9.9
Israel
4.1
4.2
6.6
1.3
1.8
2.8
Germany
1.2
1.7
2.0
0.8
0.8
1.3
Hong Kong
1.5
0.3
1.1
0.2
0.3
0.6
Belgium
1.4
2.3
1.6
0.8
0.7
1.1
Puerto Rico
1.3
1.7
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
Dominican Rep.
1.4
0.5
1.0
0.1
0.6
0.6
Canada
0.7
0.6
2.4
0.3
0.8
1.1
Others
23.0
40.9
49.7
14.1
14.2
31.3
215.2
224.4
258.1
96.3
103.2
137.3
Total
Trade flow estimates,
excluding China 2009
(in tonnes)
12700
2000
15500
9300
10000
Total tilapia exports excluding China : 40 000 tonnes
Trade flow estimates
2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes)
104000
170000 USA, Canada
and Mexico
5000
40000 (Russia + EU)
12400
21500
12700
15500
12000
9300
2006
2009
1000 2000
1000 20
500 1
8000 10000
Trade flow estimates 2009
(in tonnes)
increase by 70%
huge increase
sharp
decline
stable
double
disappeared
disappeared
moderate increase
sharp decline
2006
2009
Import estimates 2009
(in tonnes, product weight)
22000
21000
183000
7000
40000
20000
1000
120
100
80
1000 tonnes
US tilapia imports
Whole frozen
Frozen fillets
Fresh fillets
60
40
20
Jan-June 2010
Jan-June 2009
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
US tilapia imports
.......................Jan-Dec.......................
2007
2008
2009
..........Jan-Jun..........
2008
2009
2010
(1000 tonnes)
China
120.0
119.3
130.4
52.5
56.8
68.8
Indonesia
8.6
9.8
8.8
4.9
4.0
4.6
Taiwan PC
16.1
18.6
15.7
9.9
8.5
8.6
Ecuador
12.5
9.2
10.2
4.9
5.3
4.5
Thailand
0.2
3.7
1.6
1.9
0.8
1.5
Honduras
7.9
8.3
6.5
4.5
3.2
3.5
Costa Rica
4.8
5.6
5.7
2.9
2.9
3.2
Others
3.6
4.9
4.5
2.7
2.4
2.4
173.7
179.4
183.4
84.2
83.9
97.0
Total
Source: GLOBEFISH
Frozen tilapia fillets in the US
wholesale market (US$/lb)
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10
Fresh tilapia fillets in the US
wholesale market (US$/lb)
4.2
4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
J-97
J-98
J-99
J-00
J-01
J-02
J-03
J-04
J-05
J-06
j-07
j-08
j-09
j-10
Supply estimates 2009
(in tonnes, liveweight equivalent)
66000
500000
56000
480000
21000
12000
190000
945000
950000
130000
7000
Past Supply trends
imports growing, all
supply from imports
imports stable, all
supply from imports
domestic production stagnant, one
third of supply from imports
supply mainly from domestic
production, which is growing,
exports declining
supply
growing
more than half of
production goes to exports,
production stabilizes
supply
limited
imports
growing
production
growing, almost
no exports,
limited imports
production growing
strongly, mainly for
domestic market
some
small
imports
Tilapia forecast – scenario 1:
no further growth in China
6.0
millions of tonnes
2015: 4.6 million tonnes
forecast
5.0
Others
Thailand
Uganda
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
0.0
Tilapia forecast – scenario 2:
growth in China
6.0
millions of tonnes
2015: 5 million tonnes
forecast
5.0
Others
Thailand
Uganda
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
0.0
Supply trends – 2015
imports stable, all supply
from imports
imports declining, all
supply from imports
domestic production stagnant, half
of supply from imports
supply mainly from domestic
production, which is growing,
exports almost nil
supply
stable
more than half of
production goes to exports,
production stabilizes
supply
limited
imports
stable
production
growing, almost
no exports,
limited imports
production growing
strongly, mainly for
domestic market
some
small
imports
Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize,
increased production all for Asian and Latin American market
•
•
•
•
World tilapia exports
Trade relatively unimportant, but
expanding
Total world trade can be estimated at
300 000 MT (product weight), which is
double the figure of only three years ago
China by far main exporter. accounting
for almost 90% of total exports
Share of China in total trade growing
Outlook for tilapia supply
• Supply continues to expand, especially in
South East Asia
• Some increases in Latin America
• China will increase presence on market,
especially targeting Europe
• However, the production in China likely to
stabilize
• More value addition in developing countries
• Investment by foreign companies in tilapia
farms
Outlook for tilapia demand
• Demand is strong and growing in the USA
• Very good market in Latin America
• Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market
is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch,
unlikely that there will be a strong growth
• Demand in South East strong, and supplied by
domestic and regional trade
Thank you for your kind attention