Transcript Skills Shortages in the Greater Brisbane Labour Market 2012-2021

Skills Shortages in the Greater
Brisbane Labour Market 2012-2021
A report prepared for RDA Brisbane
Presentation to Lord Mayor’s Economic
Development Steering Committee
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Our Approach
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Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
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Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
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Policy Implications
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Our Approach
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Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
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Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
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Policy Implications
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Our Approach
1. Quantitative Analysis:
– Test for structural breaks in the Greater Brisbane Labour
Market over period 1989 – 2011
– Shift share analysis
– Produce baseline predictions and Business as Usual (BAU)
scenario – to identify potential shortfall
2. Industry Consultation:
– Obtain views from industry groups on likely labour market
issues facing Greater Brisbane
– Acted as independent audit of our findings
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Our Approach
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Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
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Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
4
Policy Implications
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Current Structure of Queensland Labour Market
Queensland labour market is tight
with low unemployment rates and
a number of unfilled vacancies
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Brisbane Resident Population Components
from 2001 – 2006
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•
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Overall, 405,000 persons (32%) of resident
population moved, in or out, of Brisbane
labour market
6.7% left Brisbane for other parts of
Queensland
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4.1% left for interstate
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6.5% in-migrated from rest of Queensland
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7.9% in-migrated from rest of Australia
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7.2% in-migrated from overseas
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Technicians and Trades Workers
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Occupational Labour Supply and Demand in Queensland
Managers
200
Sales Workers
280
260
240
220
200
Labourers
Professionals
490
440
390
340
Community and Personal Service Workers
250
230
210
190
170
Unemployment to Vacancy (U/V) Ratio
Australia and Queensland seasonally
adjusted U/V ratio
Brisbane 3 months moving average U/V ratio
3
0,4
2,5
0,3
0,3
2
0,2
1,5
0,2
1
0,1
0,5
0,1
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Situation expect to reverse as mining
industry recovers in Queensland
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Queensland
Queensland has a tight labour market but
not as tight as Australia
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Three Months Moving Average
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Brisbane labour market is tightening
there are 2-3 unemployed persons per
advertised position
Shift Share Analysis
• Overall, the picture of the distribution of employment
by industry, occupation and qualification is:
– a pronounced shift into Managerial, Professional and
Services positions in Mining, Public Administration and
Safety, Health Care and Social Assistance, Education and
Training, and Accommodation and Food Services
– Above national growth in higher level post-school
qualifications
– Lower than expected growth in lower level and technical
qualifications
• Indicating an underperformance and even partial
withdrawal from processing, trades and labouring
positions
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Current Skill Shortages in Brisbane
Competition for vacancies in Brisbane
Vacancies unfilled and filled with staff lacking
the desired skills of capabilities
40
35,00%
35
Number of Applicants
30,00%
25,00%
20,00%
15,00%
10,00%
30
25
20
15
10
5,00%
5
0,00%
0
Vacancies Unfilled
Vacancies filled with workers who lacked desired skills/capabilities
Average no.of applicants per vacancy
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Average no. of applicants suitable per vacancy
Summary of trends in non-school
qualifications in Queensland 2006-2011
Non-School
Qualifications
Growth Rate 20062011
Graduating Numbers
on Past Trend
Likely Graduating
Numbers
Postgraduate diploma
or graduate
(postgraduate degree)
4.9 %
41,000
19,000
Graduate diploma or
graduate certificate
2.18 %
13,000
11,600
Bachelor degree
3.34 %
168,000
88,200
Advanced diploma or
diploma
4.39%
128,000
38,000
Certificate III/IV
5.39 %
126,000
36,500
Certificate I/II
-2.41 %
-25,000
-16,000
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Our Approach
2
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
3
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
4
Policy Implications
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Main Findings
Occupational employment baseline growth rates for
2012-2021 suggest Brisbane will expand by 343,000
jobs by 2021
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Main Findings – occupations of
particular needs identified
Major Occupational Groups
Sub-Major Occupational Groups
[11] Chief Executives, General Managers
[12] Farmers and Farm Managers
Manager
[13] Specialist Managers (Construction, Production, Distribution, Health Education)
[14] Hospitality, Retail and Service Man (Retail, Accommodation)
[22] Business, Human Resource and Market (Sales, Marketing Public)
[23] Design, Engineering, Science and Training
Professionals
[25] Health Professionals
[26] ICT Professionals (ICT/ Information)
[27] Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals
[32] Automotive and Engineering Trades W
[33] Construction Trades Workers
[34] Electrotechnology and Telecommunica
Technicians and Trades Workers
[35] Food Trades Workers
[36] Skilled Animal and Horticultural Wo
[39] Other Technicians and Trades Worker (Hairdressing)
[42] Carers and Aides
[43] Hospitality Workers
Community and Personal Service Workers
[44] Protective Service Workers
[45] Sports and Personal Service Workers
[53] General Clerical Workers
Clerical and Administrative Workers
[55] Numerical Clerks
[59] Other Clerical and Administrative W
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Forecasts of additional employees required for the
period 2012-2021, by major occupational groups,
Greater Brisbane Labour Market
Occupations
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and trades workers
Community and personal service workers
Clerical and administrative workers
Sales workers
Machinery operators and drivers
Labourers
Total
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Persons to Employ
62,403
136,410
46,202
26,937
34,288
16,786
9,681
10,626
343,333
Forecasts of additional employees required for the
period 2012-2021, by industry divisionsa, Greater
Brisbane Labour Market
Industry
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water and waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation and food services
Transport, postal and warehousing
Information media and telecommunications
Financial and insurance services
Rental, hiring and real estate services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Administrative and support services
Public administration and safety
Education and training
Health care and social assistance
Arts and recreation services
Other services
Total
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Persons to Employ
-270
10,297
3,836
3,726
43,359
-3,221
23,070
27,030
12,452
7,776
1,028
10,717
52,123
18,770
34,457
28,013
58,519
6,567
4,084
342,333
Industry employment growth rate baseline
predictions for Brisbane 2012-2021
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Year on Year Growth Rates (%)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Synergies Non-Linear
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DEEWR
Access Economics
NIEIR
ABS/SGS
Occupational employment growth rate
baseline predictions for Brisbane 2012-2021
Year on Year Growth Rates (%)
5
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Managers and
Admin
Professionals
technicians and Community and
Clerical and
tradesmen
Personal services Administrative
Synergies
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Access
DEEWR
ABS/SGS
Sales Workers
NIEIR
Machinery
operators and
Drivers
Average
Labourers
Extra employment needed between 2012-2021 – under
baseline predictions
Changes to persons to be employed by industry
Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Persons to Employ
-270
Mining
10,297
Manufacturing
3,836
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
3,726
Construction
Changes to persons to be employed by
occupation
Occupations
Persons to Employ
Managers
62403
43,359
Professionals
136410
Wholesale Trade
-3,221
Technicians and Trades Workers
46202
Retail Trade
23,070
Accommodation and Food Services
27,030
Community and Personal Service
Workers
26937
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
12,452
Clerical and Administrative Workers
34288
Information Media and Telecommunications
7,776
Financial and Insurance services
1,028
Sales Workers
16786
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
10,717
Machinery Operators and Drivers
9681
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
52,123
Labourers
10626
Administrative and Support Services
18,770
Public Administration and Safety
34,457
Total
343333
Education and Training
28,013
Health Care and Social Assistance
58,519
Arts and Recreation Services
6,567
Other Services
4,084
Total
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342,333
Occupational employment projections for
Greater Brisbane Labour Market
450
Total Employed Persons ('000)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Managers
Professionals
2013 Baseline
Technicians and Community and
Trades Workers
Personal
Services
Workers
Clerical and
Administrative
Workers
2013 BAU
2017 BAU
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2017 Baseline
Sales Workers
2021 Baseline
Machinery
Operators and
Drivers
2021 BAU
Labourers
Industry employment projections for
Greater Brisbane Labour Market
250
Total Employed Persons ('000)
200
150
100
50
0
2021 Baseline
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2021 BAU
1
Our Approach
2
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
3
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
4
Policy Implications
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Policy Implications and Recommendations
1. Intervention is needed to stop excess labour demand
pressures, particularly in health related areas
2. Increase efforts to attract inward migration (address housing
and infrastructure base issues)
3. Emphasise bridging courses to retrain and up-skill workers
4. Accept and assist predicted structural changes to occur
5. VET system reform
1.
Greater role in less traditional areas (e.g. arts, media and ICT)
2.
Increase tertiary access to disadvantaged groups
6. Ensure institutional and legislative arrangements are focused
on fast tracking the creation of suitable labour
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