Transcript Tourism in the Twenty First Century
Contemporary Tourism
Tourism in the Twenty First Century
Lecture Objectives
• Be able to appreciate some of the key factors influencing tourism in this century • Understand why the condition of the physical environment is directly and indirectly significant for the future of tourism • Understand the potential significance of climate change for tourism environments and destinations • Be able to identify some of the difficulties associated with predicting tourist flows and patterns • Understand the implications for tourism of the end of easily accessible oil supplies • Be able to appreciate the role that aviation plays with respect to both climate change and energy supply issues in tourism • Appreciate the value of scenarios as a decision-making tool
An Uncertain World
• The future is unknown • Prediction is difficult due to: • Wild card events • Shifting business environment • All elements impact upon the production and consumption of tourism
Paradox
• Growth in international tourism set against global environmental change • Paradox • Forecasts versus concerns – Political instability – Energy – Global environmental change
Climate Change
• Issues for – Reef tourism – Coastal tourism – Winter tourism • Responding to change – Greenhouse Gasses – Aviation sector
Predicting Change
• Causality difficult to determine • Predicting tourist behaviour?
What Future for Tourism?
• People make their own history • People make their own future • Future of tourism determined largely by factors external to the sector • Scenarios for the future