Contemporary Tourism

Tourism in the Twenty First Century

Lecture Objectives

• Be able to appreciate some of the key factors influencing tourism in this century • Understand why the condition of the physical environment is directly and indirectly significant for the future of tourism • Understand the potential significance of climate change for tourism environments and destinations • Be able to identify some of the difficulties associated with predicting tourist flows and patterns • Understand the implications for tourism of the end of easily accessible oil supplies • Be able to appreciate the role that aviation plays with respect to both climate change and energy supply issues in tourism • Appreciate the value of scenarios as a decision-making tool

An Uncertain World

• The future is unknown • Prediction is difficult due to: • Wild card events • Shifting business environment • All elements impact upon the production and consumption of tourism

Paradox

• Growth in international tourism set against global environmental change • Paradox • Forecasts versus concerns – Political instability – Energy – Global environmental change

Climate Change

• Issues for – Reef tourism – Coastal tourism – Winter tourism • Responding to change – Greenhouse Gasses – Aviation sector

Predicting Change

• Causality difficult to determine • Predicting tourist behaviour?

What Future for Tourism?

• People make their own history • People make their own future • Future of tourism determined largely by factors external to the sector • Scenarios for the future