The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Nick Jones February 3, 2015 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Development

100 countries 15 demand sectors trade flows 20 fuel types technology & policy

2

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy 3

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy 4

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy 5

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Energy Measures and Units

1 log = 24,500 BTU 1 gallon gasoline = 5 logs 1 gallon gasoline = 36 kWh 13,000 AA batteries 4,000 smart phone batteries

6

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand

Commercial Buildings Household Use 6 7 Personal Transportation 6 34 Total Commercial Transportation 4 Industrial 11 7

7

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

2010 World Daily Energy Demand

U.S. Per Capita 34 7 World Per Capita 9 1.7

Times 7 billion people = ~12 billion gallons per day 260 MBDOE 525 QUADS

8

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Global Mix of Fuels

Quadrillion BTUs 1800 1850

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

1900

Oil Coal Biomass

1950

Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Oil Coal Coal

2000

Biomass Biomass

2040 9

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Global Progress Drives Demand

Population

Billion

GDP

Trillion 2010$

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Savings Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD*

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

10

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

The Middle Class Continues to Grow

Middle Class per The Brookings Institution

Billion People

Rest of World Key Growth China Mexico India OECD*

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran India Saudi Arabia Thailand China Indonesia South Africa

11

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)

2040 Percentage Urban

0-50% 50-75% 75-100% 2010 City – 10 million + 2040 City – 10 million +

Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

12

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

‘40 ‘25 ‘10

Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm 13

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Transportation

14

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Transportation Demand

Sector Demand

MBDOE

Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty

15

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand

2040 LDV Fleet

Million

World LDV Demand

MBDOE

Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Base Fleet Energy Savings Population Growth Improved Standard of Living

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

16

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Transportation Fuel Demand

World

MBDOE

United States

MBDOE

Other Fuel Oil Natural Gas Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

17

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Industrial

18

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Industrial Demand

Industrial Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

Paint Plastics Chemical Heavy Industry Energy Industry Liquid Fuels Other Steel Agriculture Coal Fertilizer Automobiles Lubricants Textiles Natural Gas Asphalt

19

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Industrial Demand Growth Shifts; Intensity Improves

Industrial Demand Growth

Quadrillion BTUs

Industrial Energy Intensity

Thousand BTUs per Dollar of GDP

‘95 Rest of World Key Growth India ‘10 China ‘25 ‘40 OECD*

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

20

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Chemical Demand

Chemical Demand by Region

Quadrillion BTUs

Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* United States

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Chemical Demand by Fuel Type

Quadrillion BTUs

‘40 ‘25 ‘10

21

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Generation

22

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Demand

Electricity Demand

Thousand TWh

Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Industrial Growth Electricity Demand by Region

Thousand TWh

2014 China Key Growth United States Europe India Base Demand

23

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves

Global Capacity Utilized

GW

By Generation

k TWh

‘10 ‘40 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Wind & Solar Other Renewables

24

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Generation Fuel by Region Quadrillion BTUs

‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Other Solar Wind Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Key Growth 25

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Global Demand

2040 By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs 0.8% 2010 1.6% 0.1%

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0%

0.5% 2.3% 5.8% 1.8% 26

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

CO

2

Emissions

27

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

World Emissions

CO 2 Emissions by Region

Billion metric tonnes

Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD*

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Emissions per Capita

Tonnes / Person

‘10 ‘40

28

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Supply

29

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Liquids Supply

World Supply by Type

MBDOE

Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates

Trillion Barrels

Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates

30

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE

Demand Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate

North America 31

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand

‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40

North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 32

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand

‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40

North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 33

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Energy Trade Indicative trade flows 34

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Energy Trade

Liquids Demand

MBDOE

Imports/Exports Local Production Gas Demand

BCFD

LNG Pipeline Local Production

35

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

Developing Economies Dominate Growth

Demand by Region

Quadrillion BTUs

Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD*

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

36

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

37