Transcript Lecture 3 problem solving

Problem solving
Lecture 3
14 November, 10-13
Johan Brink
C22
Today
• Problem solving
• Working Hypothesis
• The 7 ‘new’ management methods
Problem solving & Decision making
• Rationality analytics vs. Intuition
– Intuition is based on cognitive
pattern recognition, matching
abstracts and heuristics
– Intuitive idea
• Rapid
• Analytical implication, ‘test’
• Then action/implementation
– People rely on a limited
number of heuristic principles
which reduce complex tasks
into simpler judgmental
operations (Tversky and Kahneman 1974)
Troubleshooting
• System knowledge
• Procedural
knowledge
• Strategic knowledge
Expert systems
1) Diagnosis, Top down
2) Data retrieval –
added info, match &
analogies
3) Consequences. If
then must this also
be true…
Problem solving
• Decomposed
systems
– NK: Parts (N) and
degree of
interrelations (K)
– Divide
– Abstraction &
Reduction
Problem solving
• Framing the
problem
– Different
perspectives
– Different theories
– Analogy
What is a complex problem?
• Novel task that the subject is unfamiliar with
• Availability of information about the problem –
transparency
• Precision of goal definition – (including multiple
goals, contradictory goals)
• Complexity –as number of variables and type of
relationship
• Stability of problem, dynamics
• Richness of semantic embedding
Working hypothesis
Define – fact –what
is the problem?
• Test
– Revise , test
again…
• Facts matters
• Connect to theory
& information
Complex problem solving
•
Internal (Problem solver)
Experience (Memory)
–
–
•
Given
Cognitive variables (Information
processing)
–
–
–
–
•
Effect likelihood of success
Influence the strategies
Goal
TOOLS
General intelligence
Background knowledge
Monitoring and evaluation strategies
Cognitive styles
Non cognitive variables
–
–
–
–
BARRIERS
Self-confidence
Perseverance
Motivation
Enjoyment
External (Environment)
•
Problem structure
– Semantics
– Transparency of task
– Complexity
•
Problem context
– Embeddedness of task
– Familiar context
•
Environmental factors
– Feedback
– Peer pressure
Working hypothesis
• Focus
• Logics
– Mutually
exclusive &
Collectively
exhaustive
– Clarity
– Chain of
arguments
Process consultancy
• Motivates
• Guides the process
• Implement
• Asking the ‘right’
questions
• Challenge
assumptions
• Add facts & theories
Working hypothesis
• Solution selling –
arguments for ROI
• Project management
• Project controlmanagement
discussions
• After case : ProblemActivity-Result
The 7 ‘new’ management and
planning tools
• Affinity Diagram (KJ
Method)
• Interrelationship
Diagraph (ID)
• Tree Diagram
• Prioritization Matrix
• Matrix Diagram
• Process Decision
Program Chart (PDPC)
• Activity Network
Diagram
Affinity Diagram
• This tool takes large
amounts of disorganized
data and information and
enables one to organize it
into groupings based on
natural relationships
• It was created in the 1960s
by Japanese
anthropologist Jiro
Kawakita.
• ‘Post-it clustering’
Interrelationship Diagraph
Academic
experience
Quality and
content
Experience from
Consultancy
Limited
feedback
First time
running this
course
Enjoy different
research
methods
• This tool displays all the
interrelated cause-andeffect relationships and
factors involved in a
complex problem and
describes desired
outcomes.
• The process of creating
an interrelationship
diagraph helps a group
analyze the natural links
between different aspects
of a complex situation.
• Box- arrow links (cause
and effect)
Newborn baby
at home
Interrelationship Diagraph
Tree Diagram
• This tool is used to break down
broad categories into finer and
finer levels of detail.
• It can map levels of details of
tasks that are required to
accomplish a goal or task.
• It can be used to break down
broad general subjects into
finer and finer levels of detail.
Developing the tree diagram
helps one move their thinking
from generalities to specifics.
– Root-cause
– Action plans
– Components
Ishikawa - Fishbone
Three Diagram - 5 whys
• Why are we having to divert ambulances?
– We don’t have any open ED bays
• Why don’t we have any open ED bays?
– We can’t get patients admitted to rooms fast enough.
• Why can’t we get patients into beds faster?
– Patients are physically out of the rooms but do not show as
discharged into the system.
• Why are they not discharged in the system?
– The nurse did not notify the unit clerk to enter the discharge into
the system.
• Why is process dependent on the nurse notifying the unit
clerk?
– It has always worked that way.
Prioritization Matrix
• This tool is used to prioritize
items and describe them in
terms of weighted criteria.
• It uses a combination of tree
and matrix diagramming
techniques to do a pair-wise
evaluation of items and to
narrow down options to the
most desired or most effective.
• Cross-matrix –cause and effect
matrix (function-interrelations
matrix)
Features
Effect
New colors
Increase sales
Extended
lifetime
Increase costs
Use of
modules
Reduced
assembly cost
Just in time
delivery
Reduced
inventory
xxxx
zzzz
Matrix Diagram
• This tool shows the
relationship between
items.
• At each intersection a
relationship is either
absent or present.
– Gives information about
the relationship, such
as its strength, the roles
played by various
individuals or
measurements.
Activity Network Diagram
• This tool is used to plan
the appropriate sequence or
schedule for a set of tasks and
related subtasks.
–
–
–
–
–
Prior task
This task
Simultaneous tasks
Following tasks
Time for task
• The diagram enables one to
determine the critical path
(longest sequence of tasks).
– Early & last start
– Early and last finish
5 days
5 days
2 days
4 days
1 days
Activity Network Diagram
Activity Network Diagram
Process Decision Program Chart (PDPC)
• A useful way of planning is to
break down tasks into a
No main
hierarchy, using a Tree
hypothesis
Diagram.
• The PDPC extends the tree
diagram a couple of levels to No access to
key data
identify risks and
countermeasures for the
bottom level tasks.
No access to
key managers
• Used to highlight risks and
identify possible
countermeasures (often
shown as 'clouds' to indicate
their uncertain nature).
No time for
presentation
No
complem
entary
data
KJ-Shiba: A structured way of
solving complex problems
The biggest problem with ...is...
1. Each participant gives his/her short view on
the problem (1 min each)
2. Write down individually specific
allegations/claims on notes (post its)
3. Go through the notes so everyone
understands
4. Organize notes into logical groups
5. Put headlines on groups
6. Organize groups of global groups
7. Put headlines on global groups
8. Defining relationships: how do they affect
different groups together?
9. Rate the different subgroups: the reasons it
feels the most important?
10. Summarize results in a sentence
Step 1 & 2
Lack of
The biggest promlem is…
resources
Three times
last week we
were short of
staff
Short sentances.
Maximum of 2-3 rows.
Fact based.
Specific allegations/claims.
Step 3
The biggest problem is...
Read.
Explain.
Clarify.
Add.
…!
OK
!
OK
!
?
OK
!
OK
!
Step 4 - Sort
The biggest problem is...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
Step 5 – Label: level one
The biggest problem is...
Aaaaa...
Bbbb...
Cccccc...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
Step 6 & 7 – Label: level two
Xxxx...
Aaaaa...
The biggest problem is...
Bbbb...
Cccccc...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
Step 8 – Relations
Xxxx...
Aaaaa...
The biggest problem is...
Cccccc...
OK
!
Bbbb...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
Step 9 & 10 – Vote & ‘Sum it
up’
Xxxx...
Aaaaa...
The biggest problem is...xxx
Cccccc...
OK
!
Bbbb...
Dddddd...
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
OK
!
Short assignment
• Do a short KJ-Shiba exercise in groups of 6~8
student
• Prepare to present your results along the
process in front of the class (brief)
• Suggested Questions/’problems’ to work with:
– How do I write a really good Master thesis?
– How to I get a really good job after graduation?
– Or come up with a suitable question yourselves…