Transcript Basic Concepts of Engineering Economy

Problem Solving /
Decision Making
Kepner-Tregoe
The New Rational Manager
Chapter 7
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 1
Chapter 7 Contents
 Situation
Appraisal, Tool for Evaluation
 Situation Appraisal Techniques
 Situation Appraisal in Practice
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 2
Where to Begin?
 When
faced with a situation, we may
experience confusion and uncertainty
over where to begin.
 We may struggle to recognize and
break apart actions that overlap and are
required to address the situation.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 3
More on Where to Begin
A
manager who is skilled at the three basic
rational processes of PA, DA, and PP(O)A is
more efficient than one who is not.


These three rational processes are analytical in
nature - there purpose is to analyze and resolve
But to be more effective, a manager must also
be skilled at another rational process:
Situation Appraisal (SA)

SA is an evaluative technique leading to the
proper selection and use the analytical techniques
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 4
SA Techniques
 List
threats and opportunities
 Separate and clarify concerns
 Consider seriousness, urgency, and
growth
 Determine analysis needs
 Determine help needed
 See W Fig 16 p 169, B Fig 13 p 165
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 5
List Threats and Opportunities
Four Activities
 List
current deviations, threats, and
opportunities
 Review progress against goals
 Look ahead for surprises
 Search for improvement
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 6
List Threats and Opportunities
Specific Questions
Where are we not meeting standards?
 What problems remain unsolved?
 What recommendations are we working
on?
 What decisions need to be made?
 What major projects, systems, or plans are
about to be implemented?
 What bothers us about …..?

Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 7
Separate and Clarify
Concerns
 Most
issues are more complex than they
first appear
 “It is unlikely that employing the
separation step of Situation Appraisal
will be a waste of time.”
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 8
Separate and Clarify Specific
Questions
Do we think one action will resolve this?
 Do we agree on the reason for our concern?
 What evidence do we have that this is a
concern?
 What do we mean by ….?
 What is actually happening in this
situation? Anything else?
 What actions are suggested?

Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 9
Separate and Clarify
Specific Questions
 Together,
these questions get below the
surface
 They shift us from subjective opinion to
verifiable information
 FACTS and DATA!
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 10
Separate and Clarify
Specific Questions
 “Without
the separating questions, it is
entirely possible for people to sit
through an entire meeting in the
mistaken certainty that their individual,
disparate assessments of a situation
represent the understanding of the
group at large.”
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 11
Consider Seriousness,
Urgency, and Growth
A
practical and systematic process for
determining dimensions of importance
How serious is the current impact on
people, safety, cost, productivity, etc.?
 How urgent is it to keep the concern from
becoming difficult, expensive, or
impossible to resolve
 What evidence is there that the seriousness
will grow?

Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 12
Consider Seriousness,
Urgency, and Growth
 Postpone
any concern that ranks low in
all three dimensions
 “Experienced managerial teams …. can
usually pick out the top five (concerns)
in a relatively short time.”
 Don’t be unnecessarily swayed by
activities you enjoy or activities from
demanding people.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 13
Determine Analysis Needs
Problem Analysis
 Does
the situation require explanation?
 Is there a deviation from expected
performance?
 Is the cause of the deviation unknown?
 Would knowing the cause help us to
take more effective action?
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 14
Determine Analysis Needs
Decision Analysis
 Does
a choice have to be made?
 Is there a dilemma around the best
action to take?
 Do objectives need to be set in order to
undertake some activity?
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 15
Determine Needs: Potential
Problem (Opportunity) Analysis
 Has
a decision been made that has not
been implemented, and is it necessary
to act now to avoid possible future
trouble?
 Does a plan need to be made to
safeguard a decision or future activity?
 Can we generate additional value by
implementing a plan or decision?
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 16
Selecting the Right Rational
Process
 The
kind of answer we need determines
the choice of Rational Process
 How much of an answer we need
determines whether we will use all the
process or only part of it.

Partial use of the rational processes is
common
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 17
Determine Help Needed
 Often
responsibility for resolving
concerns must be shared or assigned to
others

Who needs to be involved for:
Information
 Commitment
 Implementation
 Analysis

Problem Solving / Decision Making
Approval
Development
Creativity
Presentation
Chapter 7 - 18
Determine Help Needed
(continued)
 What
needs to be done and when?
 Who will do it?
 Who will document the process and the
results?
Problem Solving / Decision Making
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SA in Practice
The Cases
 Sue’s
Reports are Late Again
 Crushed Cartons
 A Difference of Opinion
 The Madge Problem
 Replacing Obsolete Equipment
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 20
Chapter Summary
 “Far
too much time is wasted trying to
make sense of concerns that are
unactionable collections of concerns,
each with its own unique features and
requirements.”
 Formal and informal use of SA can
significantly reduce this waste of time
and energy.
Problem Solving / Decision Making
Chapter 7 - 21