Transcript pptx - LoCal

LoCal Presentation on
AutoGrid CEC Project…
and some other stuff…
May 2012
1
AutoGrid Background
Founded in 2011
Stanford Spinout
Located in Palo Alto
2
Autogrid Solution: Demand Response Optimization and
Management System (DROMS)
AutoGrid’s DROMS is an open standards based,
highly scalable software platform to rapidly
implement demand side management programs
at 90% lower cost, and 30% higher “yield”
compared to any other solution.
3
Project Summary
• CEC Emerging Technology Demonstration Project
– $1.2M grant + $600k cost share
– LoCal ~$200k, focused on sMAP integration
– Awarded April, expect Contract by June
• Project will demonstrate Autogrid DROMS platform to
implement 365x24x7 Fast Demand Response in 2 Industrial
sites:
– Sunnyvale SmartStation and Water Control Treatment Plant
• Partners
– UCB, LBNL, Demand Energy, Stanford
• 2 year project starting this year running until EOY 2014
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Water Storage Pond
5
The Problem (Grand Challenge Maybe?)
851,879 MW 2011 US Peak
• ~200 IOUs
• ~3,000 Public/Municipal
Utilities
• 4.8 Million Buildings
• 130M Residential Meters
DR predominantly here today
< 40 GW (<5%)
1
Migrating Internet
scale technology to
the Grid takes us here
Residential
37%
Small C&I
15%
Large C&I
24%
Med C&I
24%
New Model Targets This Potential2
1.
2.
NERC 2011 Summer Reliability Assessment
FERC Report, A National Assessment of DR
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Supply Following Resources:
Future: Virtual Power Plant
24x7x365 balancing
Today: Demand Response
Peak Shaving Only
DR Shed estimates (GW)
1.4-1.5
1.3-1.4
1.2-1.3
1.1-1.2
1-1.1
0.9-1
Open Standards
Big Data
Cloud
DR Shed es mates (GW)
1.5-1.6
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.8-0.9
0.7-0.8
0.6-0.7
0.5-0.6
0.4-0.5
0.3-0.4
1
4
Fall
7
10
13
Summer
16
19
22
Emerging Models
0.2-0.3
0.1-0.2
1.6
1.4
1.4-1.6
1.2
1.2-1.4
1
1-1.2
0.8
0.8-1
0.6
0.6-0.8
0.4
0.4-0.6
0.2-0.4
0.2
0-0.2
0
0
3
6
0-0.1
Spring
Winter
High Initial cost to adopt
High Endpoint Cost - Proprietary Systems
Suited for only a few large customers
Used for <50 hours for “Peak Shaving”
Response Time in Day/Hours, Unpredictable
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Fall
9
12
her
Pr o
fi l
15
Summer
18
21
Spring
24
Winter
No Cap Ex – Cloud-based
Low End-point Cost – Open Standards
Suited for all customers of all utilities
Can be used 365/24/7, predictable
Response Time in minutes/seconds
“Virtual Power Plants” of “NegaWatts” that are 90% lower cost than existing
approaches and 100% clean
CAISO Feb 24, 2012 1 AM
Wind Ramp,
~1GW/hr
Load, not
to scale
freq
Load minimum, DR
needed to maintain freq
8
Production Value of DR in California
• 2011 analysis:
• 10% peak reduction
• (2011 peak = 45,545 MW)
• Production cost reduction
• : ~$24.28 million
• or $5.33/kW
• or $425,965/hr
• or $xx /kWh
• Emission reduction:
• ~211.10 million tons
9
DROMS: Big Data Analytics, Internet Scale
Web users
DR Participants
Maximize CTRs
Minimize Opt-outs
Ad server:
DROMS server:
Big Data Analytics,
Machine Learning,
Personalization,
Real-Time Optimization
Big Data Analytics,
Machine Learning,
Personalization,
Real-Time Optimization
Ad network inventory,
Cost, Constraints
Resource Inventory,
Cost, Constraints
Highly Scalable technology applied to Demand Optimization
10
Site Data for CEC Project
• Sunnyvale
– Smart Station
– Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP)
11
Meter Year Data Thermal Maps
SUNNYVALE 2820054520 301 CARL RD 7904R5 VVJ82-1 (kW)
12
All Meter CDF,LDC
•
•
•
5% CDF point is of cumulative power
Translates to % of total time/year
= % of peak power
Meter
% t/yr
%peak kW
kW point
M1
1.13
29.5
680
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M1
14
Meter 1 Monthly LDCs
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4 Meters Year Data Thermal Maps
SUNNYVALE 6022590160 P94919 E3753-1 (kW)
SUNNYVALE 1105922858 P28191 E0169-1 (kW)
SUNNYVALE 0314283005 5036R0 (kW)
SUNNYVALE 1105922145 P95143 E1335-1 (kW)
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All Meter CDF,LDC
•
•
•
5% CDF point is of cumulative power
Translates to % of total time/year
= % of peak power
Meter
% t/yr
%peak kW
kW point
M1
0.75
9.7
362
M2
3.4
11.5
184
M3
0.27
18.2
922
M4
2.7
27.5
187
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M1
400
300
200
100
0
5000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
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M2
19
M3
20
M4
21
Meter 1 Monthly LDCs
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Meter 2 Monthly LDCs
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Meter 3 Monthly LDCs
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Meter 4 Monthly LDCs
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DROMS – Open, Automated, Scalable Platform
Cloud Based
Architecture
Open
Standards
90% Lower IT cost
Highly Scalable
80% Lower Endpoint Cost
DROMS-RT
Hardware Device Neutral
Higher Customer Choice
Higher Customer Adoption
Advanced
Analytics
30%-50% more “yield”
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DROMS: Provides Unified view of all devices over all
protocols, across all customer segments
DROMS analyzes terabytes of data from millions of
endpoints to perform real-time forecasting & optimization
for Optimal Monetization of endpoints
27
Technology Overview: Analytics for Utilities & Participants
28
Trend: US Competitive Market
More 68% of all C&I load is open to Competition across 18 jurisdictions
29
Trend: Competitive Markets Showing Benefits
30
Trend: Demand for Direct Access & DR
“California 2012 Direct Access Markets Full in 47 Seconds”
PG&E was oversubscribed in under 6
seconds,
San Diego Gas & Electric's space was
used up in 24 seconds
SCE's load caps for 2012 and 2013 were
exhausted in 47 and 45 seconds,
respectively.
“Nearly 29,000 enrollment requests for direct access were denied after the
cap was reached”
PJM already at >10% peak load met with DR
“PJM's latest capacity auction saw a record amount of new generation, DR
and energy efficiency procured for 2015/2016, the RTO announced Friday”
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Price Responsive Demand…the Next Step
32
CAISO Current
• Minimal demand response participation in the
wholesale market
• Retail and wholesale markets for DR not yet integrated
In 2011, only 12 MW
registered in the wholesale
market, no bids dispatched
2011 capability ~5%
of total peak load,
>3% available in
emergency only
Source: 2011 Annual Report on Market Issues& Performance CAISO Department of Market Monitoring
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Value of Demand Response
Estimated Revenue by Service
$550,000,000
$450,000,000
Economic Energy Incentives
Economic Energy
Emergency Energy
Synchronized Reserve
Capacity*
$350,000,000
$250,000,000
$150,000,000
$50,000,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 as of
04/08/2012
-$50,000,000
*Capacity revenue prior RPM implementation on 6/1/07 estimated based on average daily ALM capacity credits and weighted average daily
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PJM capacity market clearing price.
www.pjm.com
Offers of Demand Resources and Energy Efficiency as
Capacity in PJM by Delivery Year
822 MW of EE cleared in the 2014/2015 BRA
35
DR Integrated into PJM Markets
• Energy
– Real time flow of electrons where demand=supply
– $2,052,996 paid to DR in 2011 for Economic
• Capacity
– 3 year forward market to assure capacity adequacy
– $487,104,180 paid to DR resources in 2011
• Synchronized Reserve
– 10 min. reserves when largest unit trips off-line
– $9,399,509 paid to DR resources in 2011
• Regulation
– 5 min. reserves maintain frequency at 60 hertz
– $124 paid to DR resources in 2011
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Price Ticker Landing Page
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