Unit 3 – Foreign Policy Analysis

Foreign Policy Analysis • Foreign policy is designed to protect and promote the national interest abroad • Domestic policy is designed to protect and promote the national interest within the country

National Interest Promote a nation’s • Security • Stability • Prosperity

National Interest Promote a nation’s • Security • Stability • Prosperity In the domains of • Domestic • Regional • Global

National Interest Promote a nation’s • Security • Stability • Prosperity In the domains of • Domestic • Regional • Global Identify threats to those interests, formulate policy

National Interest Policy Matrix Domestic Regional Global Security Stability Prosperity

Foreign Policy Analysis • Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA) – Individual Decision-maker (cognitive paradigm) • Examine the decision-maker using one of several different approaches

Decision-making variables

Affect Decision-making variables

Cognition Affect Decision-making variables

Cognition Affect Personality Decision-making variables

Cognition Affect Group Personality Decision-making variables

Social Milieu Cognition Affect Group Personality Decision-making variables

Social Milieu Cognition Affect Group Personality Decision-making variables Time

Foreign Policy Analysis • Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA) – Individual Decision-maker (cognitive paradigm) • Examine the decision-maker using one of several different approaches • This approach costly in time and resources

Foreign Policy Analysis • Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA) – Individual Decision-maker – Bureaucratic Model • Standard operating procedures • Turf battles

Iraq War case President Bush Secy State Powell Natl Sec Advisor Rice Secy Defense Rumsfeld

Foreign Policy Analysis • Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA) – Individual Decision-maker – Bureaucratic Model – Neorealist Unitary Rational Actor model • Assume rationality, assume unity • Personalities and individual quirks are epiphenomenal • Focus on relative power status

Unitary Rational Actor Black Box analogy Environmental condition Individual or group dynamics ignored Party decision or behavior

Greenstein’s Criteria • When is it worth the time and resources to open the black box? Remember Occam’s razor “One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.”

Greenstein’s Criteria • The actor occupies a strategic position • In an ambiguous or unstable situation • Where there are no clear precedents • Or spontaneous or especially effortful behavior is required.