Transcript The simple and complex fish soup development story

An Outcome Mapping
Learning Community
Webinar
Ricardo Wilson-Grau in Rio de Janeiro
15 December 2010
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The fish soup development
story
Inspired by Monika Jetzin, Global Water Partnership, Hungary
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Inputs or resources
 Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables,
water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat
Activities
 Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all
the ingredients
Parents
control
Output
 Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in
the world
Outcome
 Children consider the soup delicious and eat fish
soup once a week for the rest of their lives
Impact
 Children are healthy adults
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Parents
influence
Parents
contribute a
bit
The difference between simple and
complex fish soups
?


Example adapted from Getting to Maybe, How the World Is Changed?, Frances
Westley, Brenda Zimmerman, Michael Q. Patton, Random House Canada, 2006.
Inspired by the IDRC EcoHealth and Complexity study group, with special thanks
to Andrés Sánchez.
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A simple situation
The relations of cause and effect are
known.
The parents follow the great
grandmother’s recipe for fish soup.
The quantity and nature of the
ingredients are spelled out, as well as
the order in how they should be
combined.
The parents do not need expertise
although of course experience in
cooking helps.
If they follow the recipe they will
produce basically the same soup week
after week.
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If only life were so simple!
In the real world, the results can be much less certain.
 The great grandmother’s recipe is lost.
 Her recommended fish is not available in the market every
week of the year.
 The family’s buying power varies from year to year.
 Children are different and change as they grow:
 One becomes a vegetarian.
 Another goes on a diet.
 A third is simply rebellious.
 Outside factors and actors influence the children – school, TV,
friends and so forth
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In such a complex situation
 The relationships of cause and effect are unknown until the
outcomes emerges.
 To produce a nutritious soup that their children will eat once a
week for the rest of their lives, the recipe is less important than
the parents’ relationships with each son and daughter, and theirs
with their social environment.
 More than cooking experience,
parent’s must rely on their
sensitivity to their children’s
needs and their own creativity in
the kitchen.
 And they must accept
uncertainty about the results.
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When the organisation and
its reality are substantially
complex
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Conventional thinking…
Time
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Inspired by Jeff Conklin,
cognexus.org
… clashes with relationships of cause and
effect that are unknown
Time
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Inspired by Jeff Conklin,
cognexus.org
… clashes with relationships of cause and
effect that are unknown
Time
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Implications for Outcome
Mapping
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Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
Year #2
Year #3
Complex situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
Year #2
Year #3
Complex situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
Year #2
Year #3
Complex situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Formative evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
Year #2
Year #3
Complex situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Summative evaluation
Formative evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
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Year #2
Year #3
Simple situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Evaluation
Monitoring
Intentional design
Year #1
Year #2
Year #3
Complex situations
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Developmental evaluation
Year #1
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Year #2
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THANK YOU!
Do you have questions or comments?
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