Transcript Lecture 4 - Banks and Markets

Data and Analysis of Data
by Binam Ghimire
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Learning Objectives
 To give students a flavour on the nature of work
related to data and analysis
 Data
 Primary and Secondary
 Primary Data Collection
 Secondary Estimation OLS, use of Excel
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Research design activity : Workplace
commitment
What would a definition of committment
be, if you were to look it up in the
dictionary
Now, how might we “measure”
committment, i.e. the extent to which a
person is committed to their
job/employer?
Research Activity 1
1. In your group find out what the concept of “workplace
commitment” means. Use more than 3 found definitions
and include in your research notes the following
Where did you get the definitions from
What characteristics do they all have in common
What characteristics are different
Now, using the findings from secondary sources that you
have found write your own group definition of
“workplace commitment”
Research Activity 2
Now that you have an operational definition of the
concept of “workplace commitment” draw up a
research plan detailing how you would go about
measuring it in a workplace that you are familiar with
Primary and Secondary sources
 In that last pair of activities you were shown the
differences between primary and secondary sources
of research data.
Primary Data
Definition : “Data observed or collected directly from firsthand experience.”
Primary data is important for all areas of research
because it is unvarnished information about the results
of observation. No one has tarnished it or spun it by
adding their own opinion or bias so it can form the basis
of objective conclusions.
Can be collected through direct observation,
participant observation, questionnaires and
surveys, asking questions, focus groups etc
Primary Data
 Data that has been collected from first-hand-experience
is known as primary data. Primary data has not been
published yet and is more reliable, authentic and
objective. Primary data has not been changed or altered
by human beings, therefore its validity is greater than
secondary data.
 Importance of Primary Data:
 Importance of Primary data cannot be neglected. A
research can be conducted without secondary data but
a research based on only secondary data is least reliable
and may have biases because secondary data has
already been manipulated by human beings.
Secondary Data
 Definitions :
“Published data and the data collected in the past or by
other parties is called secondary data”
“Existing primary data that was collected by someone else
or for a purpose other than the current one.”
Secondary Data
 Data collected from a source that has already been
published in any form is called as secondary data. The
review of literature in nay research is based on
secondary data. Mostly from books, journals and
periodicals.
Secondary Data
 Importance of Secondary Data:
 Secondary data can be less valid but its importance is
still there. Sometimes it is difficult to obtain primary
data; in these cases getting information from secondary
sources is easier and possible. Sometimes primary data
does not exist in such situation one has to confine the
research to secondary data. Sometimes primary data is
present but the respondents are not willing to reveal it
in such case too secondary data can suffice
A Secondary Source is............
"A secondary source is a report on the findings of the
primary source. While not as authoritative as the
primary source, the secondary source often provides a
broad background and readily improves one's learning
curve. Most textbooks are secondary sources; they
report and summarize the primary sources.“
(Don W. Stacks, Primer of Public Relations Research.
Guilford Press, 2002)
Sources of Secondary Data
Textbooks
Research Reports
Learned Journals
Census
Official (government or NGO) statistics
Trade Body Reports
Company Reports
Plus a whole variety of other sources depending on the
subject that you are researching
Market research and market reports
 Using market reports and other data
 Once you have identified the information you need, you
can start to assemble it. Initially it's worth looking at
information that's already been published, eg market
reports, official statistics, trade publications, etc.
 Some of this information is free, but some you'll have to
pay for. You can obtain market reports and other
information from a wide range of sources:
Internet sources
 UK Trade & Investment is a useful resource for
exporters, with sectoral information for more than 200
countries worldwide. You can read country overviews on
the UK Trade and Investment website
 http://www.ukti.gov.uk/export/sectors.html
 You can also read sector reports on the UK Trade
& Investment website
 http://www.ukti.gov.uk/export/accessinginternationalma
rkets/businessopportunitiesalerts.html
Statistics on the web- RBA INFORMATION
SERVICES
http://www.rba.co.uk/sources/stats.h
tm--- has an index and explanation
of most of the statistics that are
available on the web (WON a Really
Useful site award)
Other Sources (commercial)
Commercial publishers of market reports include
 KeyNote, (http://www.keynote.co.uk/)
 Euromonitor, (http://www.euromonitor.com/)
 Mintel,
(http://www.marketresearch.com/vendors/viewVendor.a
sp?VendorID=614
 Datamonitor, (http://www.datamonitor.com/ )
 The Economist Intelligence
Unit (http://www.eiu.com/public/ )
Datastream
 Good but expensive
Sources for Resources
Penn World Table
The World Bank Data
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ESDS International
One platform to find data from various resources (mainly international
aggregates macro database)
Many resources including world bank and IMF
http://www.esds.ac.uk/International/
You can access it from university or home
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ESDS International
Big list of series (variables), long annual Data etc.
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ESDS International
Easy to plot them in graph for a group of country
GDP Growth High income countries and world
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ESDS International
Or for a single country comparing with the rest of the world
GDP Growth the world and China
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Yahoo Finance
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/
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Google Finance
http://www.google.com/finance
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Interpreting information
 Though there's a lot of readily available market information, you
need to be careful how you interpret it.
 External data might not be in a useful format to use easily. It may
have been collected for other purposes or be from a range that
doesn't tally with your target market.
 Beware of out-of-date market information. This can be misleading,
as the market may have changed significantly since the information
was published. It can be particularly hard to tell how recent any
information published on the internet is. Some information on the
web can be unreliable or biased.
 Remember that statistics can sometimes mask the true picture. For
example, an 'average' income for the population in your area might
conceal a high proportion of low earners - meaning fewer people
can afford your product than it appears.
Methods of primary data collection:
Method
 Interactive interviewing
 Written descriptions by
participants
 Observation
Description
 People asked to verbally
describe their experiences
of phenomenon.
 People asked to write
descriptions of their
experiences of
phenomenon.
 Descriptive observations
of verbal and non-verbal
behavior.
Methods of primary data collection
Method
Survey
Description
The survey is a non-experimental,
descriptive research method. Surveys can
be useful when a researcher wants to
collect data on phenomena that cannot be
directly observed Surveys are used
extensively to assess attitudes and
characteristics of a wide range of
subjects,. In a survey, researchers sample
a population. Basha and Harter (1980)
state that "a population is any set of
persons or objects that possesses at least
one common characteristic."
Methods of primary data collection
Description
Method
Case Study
A case study is an intensive analysis of an
individual unit (e.g., a person, group, or
event) stressing developmental factors in
relation to context. Case studies may be
descriptive or explanatory. The latter type is
used to explore causation in order to find
underlying principles.They may be
prospective (in which criteria are established
and cases fitting the criteria are included as
they become available) or retrospective (in
which criteria are established for selecting
cases from historical records for inclusion in
the study).
Beware !!!!
 Regardless of the type of primary data that you collect
you need to bear in mind that before the data will
support any generalisable conclusions it has to be based
on a sound sampling methodology.
 Good method + sound sample + Good data analysis =
good conclusions
 Good method + unrepresentative sample + Good data
analysis = Poor conclusions
So ……….
Answer the following questions
 How large does my sample need to be in order to form
the basis of a valid conclusion ?
 What population will my conclusions represent or refer
to ?
 What characteristics does the population have (age,
gender, incomes etc)
 Are all of the relevant characteristics of the population
represented (proportionately) in my sample
Work this one out ……………
In an examination of the factors that motivate non
qualified workers in a particular industry Mohammed
decides to use a particular company to survey.
He chooses a software development company that he
used to work at on the basis that he can get easy
access to collect data. The company has 100 full time
employees of whom 60% are men, 40% are aged
under 35, 85% hold a qualification at degree level and
20% have either Masters or postgraduate qualifications
He decides to sample 10 people from the programming
department that he used to work in however in that
department everyone is aged under 35 and none of
them hold any postgraduate qualification
Your task
 Decide how representative any data that Mohammed
will manage to collect is likely to be
 How reliable will his conclusions be
 What are the strengths and weaknesses of his data
collection efforts
 How would you go about collecting the data that is
needed in this case
So how do we know what “good” data
is ?
By measuring the data against 3 standards
 Validity
 Authenticity
 Reliability
Validity:
 Validity is one of the major concerns in research.
Validity is the quality of a research that makes it
trustworthy and scientific. Validity relies on the use of
scientific methods in research to make it logical and
acceptable. Using primary data in research can improves
the validity of research. First hand information obtained
from a sample that is representative of the target
population will yield data that will be valid for the entire
target population.
Authenticity:
 Authenticity refers to the genuineness of the research.
Authenticity can be at stake if the researcher invests
personal biases or uses misleading information in the
research. Primary research tools and data can become
more authentic if the methods chosen to analyze and
interpret data are valid and reasonably suitable for the
data type. . Primary sources are more authentic because
the facts have not been overdone. Primary source can
be less authentic if the source hides information or
alters facts due to some personal reasons. Their are
methods that can be employed to ensure factual
yielding of data from the source.
Reliability:
 Reliability is the certainty that the research is true
enough to be trusted. For example, if a research study
concludes that junk food consumption does not increase
the risk of cancer and heart diseases. This conclusion
should have to be drawn from a sample whose size,
sampling technique and variability is not questionable.
Reliability improves with using primary data. In the
similar research mentioned above if the researcher uses
experimental method and questionnaires the results will
be highly reliable. On the other hand, if he relies on the
data available in books and on internet he will collect
information that does not represent the real facts.
What next?
How??
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What can be done
 Secondary Data:
Descriptive
Correlations
Estimation
Statistical Analysis - Softwares
Statistical Analysis Tools
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What Next?
Or
R
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Analysis and Estimation
 Example
Income (X)
6
12
10
20
 See using Excel
Consumption (Y)
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22
12
8
Analysis and Estimation
Countries
France
Italy
Switzerland
Australia
Britain
USA
Russia
Czech Republic
Japan
Mexico
Death Heart
Disease
61.1
94.1
106.4
173
199.7
176
373.6
283.7
34.7
36.4
Wine
Beer
Liquor
63.5
58
46
15.7
12.2
8.9
2.7
40.1
25.1
65
102.1
100
87.8
17.1
2.5
0.9
1.7
1.2
1.5
2
3.8
1.7
1
0.2
140
55
50.4
1
2.1
0.8
Death Heart Disease per 100,000; alcohol per capita consumption
in litre. Source: Indiana University
Analysis and Estimation
 Based on established Theory
 Rajan and Jingales (1995)
 Beck et al (2000)
This weeks work
 Before we meet again
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Thank you