Transcript StatCom-Africa/Third/Presentation/STATCOM III_Statistical data

StatCom Africa III
Cape Town - Jan. 18-23, 2012
Statistical data requirements for
Trade and Regional Integration in Africa
Simon Mevel / RITD / UNECA
Outline of the Presentation
I.
Importance of statistics in the area of trade
II. Use of trade-related statistics: a concrete example in
the context of Regional Integration in Africa
III. Main data requirements for trade-related statistics
I.
Importance of statistics in the area of
trade

Help understanding the structure and evolution of regional, national
and international markets

Are at the basis of trade policy analysis and decision making:
 For direct interpretation (GDP, trade flows,
employment/unemployment rates, etc.)
 As inputs for economic tools (econometrics, modeling) to
analyze trade policies
II.
Use of trade-related statistics: a
concrete example in the context of
Regional Integration in Africa
1)
Main trade characteristics and constraints in Africa today
2)
Brief description of statistical data and methodology used for
analyzing the establishment of a Continental Free Trade Area
(CFTA)
3)
Key findings/recommendations from the analysis
1)

Main trade characteristics and
constraints in Africa today
Low share of African exports in total world exports (in %)
2000
2.3
2010
3.0
Source: COMTRADE 2010
1)

Main trade characteristics and
constraints in Africa today - cont’d
Low share of intra-trade for Africa as compared to other
regions (in %)
Intra-European trade
Intra-Asian trade
Intra-North American trade
Intra-South and Central American trade
Intra-African trade
Source: 2010 International Trade Statistics of the World Trade Organization
2009
72
52
48
26
11
1)
Main trade characteristics and
constraints in Africa today - cont’d
 High concentration of African exports in primary products
(in %)
Agricultural and food products
9.4
Primary products
36.3
Other industrial products
35.4
Services
18.9
Source: Authors’ calculations based on the MIRAGE model
1)

Main trade characteristics and
constraints in Africa today - cont’d
High tariff barriers to trade within the continent (in %)
Exporter
Africa
Rest of the World
WORLD
Importer
Africa
Rest of the World
WORLD
Source: Authors’ calculations based on MAcMap-HS6 v2
Ad Valorem Equivalent
(AVE) Tariff
8.7
3.2
3.4
1)

Main trade characteristics and
constraints in Africa today - cont’d
High non-tariff barriers to trade within the continent
OECD high income
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
East Asia & Pacific
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Average Time to Export*
10.5 days
17.8 days
19.7 days
21.9 days
27.0 days
31.5 days
Average Time to import*
10.7 days
19.6 days
23.6 days
23.0 days
28.8 days
37.1 days
*Average time for inland transport + customs procedures + port handling
Source: World Bank Doing Business, Trading Across Borders 2012
2)

Brief description of methodology and
statistical data used for the analysis
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model:
 Very powerful tool for economists to conduct policy analyses of
many kinds (trade policies, environmental policies, etc.)
 Capable of capturing multiple interactions taking place within
the different agents of the world economy – thanks to many
interconnected equations representing behaviors of economic
agents and various economic linkages
 Also has significant constraints/limitations and represents world
economy imperfectly (based on numerous assumptions) BUT it
is the only tool available today to undertake assessment of
complex economic policies
2)

Brief description of methodology and
statistical data used for the analysis –
cont’d
Modelling International Relationships in Applied General
Equilibrium (MIRAGE) model - brief description:
 CEPII & IFPRI, UNECA is part of MIRAGE consortium
 Dynamic, multi-country & multi-sector
 Particularly well designed for trade policies analysis
2)

Brief description of methodology and
statistical data used for the analysis –
cont’d
Main data inputs for the CGE model:
 Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (Purdue
University).
 Provides detailed data on: bilateral trade flows, transport,
energy, consumption of intermediate and final goods and
services, taxes and subsidies, etc.,
• 57 sectors
• 129 regions
 Used as global Social Accounting Matrix for the model:
 Market Access Map (MAcMap) database (joint efforts between
ITC, UNCTAD, WTO, CEPII & IFPRI).
Exhaustive database on market access:
 bilateral level (220 exporters & 169 importers),
 5113 product lines.
2)

Brief description of methodology and
statistical data used for the analysis –
cont’d
Implementation of several scenarios consisting in removing tariff
and non-tariff barriers:
 Establishment of a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA)
 Comparison with the formation of Regional FTAs
Free Trade Area (definition):
“Region where all tariff barriers on goods are removed”
 For the above cases, options with and without Trade Facilitation
(TF) measures are considered
• Make customs’ procedures twice more efficient and reduce
by half time merchandise spend at African ports
3)
Key findings/recommendations from the
analysis

Regional integration is not costless (example: tariff revenues
losses; Aid For Trade will need to be targeted to some
sectors/countries) but overall gains >> losses

The larger the FTA, the greater trade and real income gains

Reductions/eliminations of tariff barriers are necessary and
deliver significant gains but does not considerably improve
intra-African trade

Complementary policies (such as trade facilitation measures)
are critical and must be of high priority in the negotiations
• CFTA + TF measures could double intra-African trade over a
12 years period (from 11% 2010 to nearly 22% in 2022)
III.
Main data requirements for traderelated statistics – cont’d
GTAP label
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
Rest of North Africa
- Algeria
- Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Cote d'Ivoire
Ghana
Nigeria
Senegal
Rest of Western Africa
- Benin
- Burkina Faso
- Cape Verde
- Gambia
- Guinea
- Guinea-Bissau
- Liberia
- Mali
- Mauritania
- Niger
- Sierra Leone
- Togo
GTAP label
Central Africa
- Central African Republic
- Chad
- Congo
- Equatorial Guinea
- Gabon
- Sao Tome and Principe
South Central Africa
- Angola
- DRC
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Tanzania United Republic of
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
GTAP label
Rest of Eastern Africa
- Burundi
- Comoros
- Djibouti
- Eritrea
- Mayotte
- Rwanda
- Seychelles
- Somalia
- Sudan
Botswana
Namibia
South Africa
South African Customs Union
- Lesotho
- Swaziland
Only 20 African countries in GTAP; the other ones being aggregated in 6
heterogeneous groups (need help from statisticians to improve the database!!!)
III.

Main data requirements for traderelated statistics
Obtain Supply and Use Tables or even Input/Output Tables for African
countries not available into the GTAP database
Commitment from Member States through the National Institutes
of Statistics is critical on that respect
III.

Main data requirements for traderelated statistics – cont’d
Other key statistical data requirements (1/2):
 More systematic data to characterize trade in Africa (intra-REC,
intra-Africa, intra-industry)
 Trade and protection in services (especially those related to trade:
transportation, insurance, banking)
 Informal trade
 Trade and gender
III.

Main data requirements for traderelated statistics – cont’d
Other key statistical data requirements (2/2):
 Better trade facilitation measures and non-tariff barriers indicators
 Employment/Unemployment
 Exhaustive household surveys to capture social impacts (such as
poverty implications) of trade policy reforms
Need commitment from Member States to sharing their data to
enhance trade and regional integration analysis and monitoring.
Thank you!
Annex: MAcMap-HS6 database and TASTE

Utilization of a free software with user friendly interface: the Tariff
Analytical and Simulation Tool for Economists (TASTE)
Average applied protection on Af rican countries imports to
the rest
of the world
Average
applied protection imposed on African
Average applied protection on Af rican countries exports
f romAverage
the rest ofapplied
the world
protection faced by African
countries exports to the rest of the world
countries imports from the rest of the world
Legend
Remark: Tariff aggregation using reference
group weights with GTAP scaling
Source: MAcMap-HS6v2 database
0% < applied tariff <= 5%
5% < applied tariff <= 10%
10% < applied tariff <= 15%
applied tariff > 15%