Interpretation of household indicators

Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata

Overview of energy efficiency policies for households: case of Brazil

Minimum levels of energy efficiency for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N ° 132 PNE 2030 Minimum levels of energy efficiency for water gas heaters Interministerial Ordinance N ° 298 Changes Law 9.991 60% of the amount of PEE’s must be allocated to low income energy efficiency projects Targets programs for air conditioners, water heaters, gas stoves and ovens and refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N ° 323, 324, 325 and 326

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Maximum levels of electricity consumption for refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N Interministerial Ordinance N ° ° 362 Minimum levels of energy efficiency for gas stoves and ovens and air conditioners 363 and 364

Source: MME/EPE, 2013

Building labelling for household sector PNEF – Portaria N ° 594 Interministerial Ordinance N ° 1.007 - Schedule establishes minimum limits for incandescent lamps in order to ban them from the market Huge impact in the household sector!

Targets programs for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N ° 1.008

1. Global trends

2. Consumption by end-use 3. Diffusion of efficient equipment 4. Domestic electrical appliances

Contents

1. Global trends

a. Trends in household consumption and main drivers (private consumption and number of households) • Identification of homogenous periods (index) • Variation by period (%/year) b. Specific energy consumption per household (or per dwelling): total (toe/household) and electricity(kWh per household) (trends with double vertical axis) c. Specific electricity consumption per household vs per electrified household (if relevant)

Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption: Identification of homogeneous periods : case of Brazil

1990-2005: Plano Real since 1993): increase in private consumption and energy crisis in 2001 (decrease in energy consumption, of which 20% for electricity).

2005-2012  Private consumption increased faster than energy consumption. Household devices regulated by Energy Efficiency Law more available in market.

Energy consumption trends, private consumption and number of households (1990=100, Brazil)

260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 energy consumption private consumption electricity consumption number of households 5

  

Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption: case of Brazil

Household energy consumption is growing moderately and much slower than household income (private consumption), especially since 2005.

The electricity consumption is following the increase in private consumption.

Steady demographic pressure (increasing number of households)~ 2,6% per year

Trends in energy consumption, private consumption and number of households in Brazil (%/year)

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1990-2005 energy consumption private consumption 2005-2012 number of households 1990-2012 electricity consumption 6

Specific energy consumption per household: case of Brazil

  Energy consumption decrease due to the fall in the firewood demand. Electricity consumption increase due to the growth of private consumption and a better income distribution. 0,60 0,55 0,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 Electricity crisis 2 000 1 900 1 800 1 700 1 600 1 500 1 400 1 300 1 200 toe/dwelling Source: Brazilian Energy Balance (BEN), EPE kWh/dwelling 7

Specific energy consumption per household: case of Chile

1.25 1.20 1.15 2,500 2,000 1,500 1.10 1.05 1.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Toe/hogar 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Kwh/hogar 2009 2010 2011 0 1,000 500

Specific electricity per household: effect of electrification

• Per electrified household, the electricity consumption increases less rapidly than per household, due to households electrification: • In Bolivia and Paraguay, the electricity consumption per electrified household actually decreased and the increase in the electricity consumption per household is due to electrification (from 68% to 77% in Bolivia and from 83% to 100 % in Paraguay). • In Morocco, electrification explains 2/3 of the electricity consumption growth • The right indicator to monitor energy efficiency is the electricity consumption per electrified household.

Specific electricity consumption per household: effect of electrification (2000-2010)

5% Per household Per electrified household Electrification 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Morocco Bolivia: 2004-2011 Bolivia Paraguay 9

1. Global trends

2. Consumption by end-use

3. Diffusion of efficient equipments 4. Domestic electrical appliances

Contents

2. Consumption by end-use

a. Distribution of consumption by main end-use (space heating, cooking, water heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances and lighting; pie charts in 2000 and 2010)  main end-uses; b. Specific consumption by main end-use (toe or kWh /dwelling) c. Specific consumption for cooking per dwelling: final and useful energy (histograms for 2000 and 2010)  substitution effect d. Specific consumption for space heating (climate corrected if possible

histograms for 2000 and 2010)

Distribution of energy consumption by end-use: Brazil   Increasing share of electricity captive use, because an increase in household electricity equipment ownership.

Decreasing in cooking consumption due to the participation of more efficient fuels (reduction in firewood consumption) and increased meals made ​​outside the home.

24% 2005 1% 3% 7% 40% 24% 32% 2012 2% 3% 8% 29% 25%

water heating - LPG and gas water heating - electricity cooking - LPG and gas cooking - firewood and charcoal electricity captive use cooling Source: BEN, EPE

Distribution of consumption by end-use: case of Chile

(2010) Aire acondionado 0% Artefactos eléctricos 16% Cocina 10% Agua Caliente 18% Calefacción 56%

Source: estudio “Curva de conservación de la energía del sector residencial” , 2010 (encuesta de cerca de 3200 hogares con una representatividad de 95%)

Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Brazil

Stable consumption with a decreasing specific consumption for cooking and an increasing use of electricity.

Households specific energy consumption by main end-use (Brazil) [toe/dw]

0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00

0,041 0,266 0,105 0,041 0,206 0,121

2005 Electricity Cooking 2012 Water Heating Source: EPE 14

Household specific consumption by end-use: case of Argentina

Specific consumption by end-use (toe/households)

0,5 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 CALEFACCION REFRIGERACION COCINA 2006 2010 COCINA (Util)

Specific electricity consumption per household by end-use: Brazil

  The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is mainly linked to large electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV, washing machines, air conditioning and others. Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend.

[kWh/dw]

2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0

289 71 867 350

2005 Hot water Electrical appliances

286 100 1 128 359

Cooling 2012 Lighting Source: EPE Source: ODYSSEE 16

Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Chile

Household specific energy consumption by main end-use (2010) (Chile)

0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 Calefacción Agua Caliente Cocina Aire acondionado Artefactos eléctricos

Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: Brazil Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily because of substitution of biomass by LPG.

Household specific energy consumption for cooking (toe/household) (Brazil)

0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 1990 2000 2010 Medener 18

Specific energy consumption of households for cooking:

effect of substitution : case of

Brazil Over the period 1990-2010, substitution of LPG for biomass contributed to decrease the consumption per household by 0.8%/year Since 2000, this substitution trend reversed slightly and fuel substitutions contributed to slightly increase the consumption per household for cooking. 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,0% -1,5% -2,0% -2,5% -3,0% 1990-2010 2000-2010 final energy useful energy impact of substitution

Substitution effect = difference in variation of final and useful energy; useful energy calculated by multiplying final energy by end-use efficiency (5% efficiency for wood,; 45% for LPG)

Source: BIEE/EPE

1. Global trends 2. Consumption by end-use

3. Diffusion of efficient equipment

4. Domestic electrical appliances

Contents

3. Indicators of diffusion of efficient appliances : a. Diffusion of solar water heaters: i.

annual surface of solar water heaters installed per year (m2) ii.

% of households equipped* iii. production of solar heat** (ktoe/capita/ year) and energy saved b. Penetration of efficient lamps : i.

Number of CFL per household ii.

% of households with one CFL c.

Penetration of efficient labels

Solar water heater (SWH) equipment rates: Brazil

  Diffusion of SWH during period 2005-2012 from 1,3% to almost 4%; Increase of installed area from 2.795 to 8.419 m 2 / 1.000 inhab.

745 GWh

(avoided consumption) 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Installed m²/1.000 inhabitants % household with SWH 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA)

*% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar panel per dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /); avoided consumption= production of solar heat (calculated from the installed area of solar water heaters multiplied by the average solar output per m2) .

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Household CFL diffusion : case of Tunisia

Strong increase in the average number of CFL per household from 1 in 2007 to 2.7 in 2010; 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source ANME (ratio parc installé chez les ménages sur nombre de ménages 23

Diffusion of efficient labels

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Market share of label A and B for refrigerators (Chile )

A B 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Diffusion of efficient labels

Market share of label A and B for lamps (Chile)

25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 A B 2011 2012

1. Global trends 2. Specific consumption by end-use 3. Diffusion of efficient equipments

4. Domestic electrical appliances

Content

4. Household electrical appliances a. Trends in household equipment ownership: 2000 and 2010 b. Distribution of electricity consumption by end-use/equipment (lighting, refrigerator, TV, etc…) (chart pies 2000 and 2010); c. Specific consumption by appliance; d. Decomposition of electricity consumption variation by equipment/end use

Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of Brazil

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Refrigerator Washing machine Source: EPE TV Electric shower 2005 Air conditioning 2012 Freezer Lamps 28

Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances : case of Chile

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 refrigerador lavadora TV microondas 1992 2002 2010

Distribution of electricity consumption per household by appliance/end-use: Chile

Calefacciòn 2% Lavadora 4% Aspiradora 5% Computador 5% Cocina 6% Otros 20% TV 12% Refrigerador 30% Iluminación 16%

Specific electricity consumption by type of appliance : Chile

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Refrigerador Iluminación TV Cocina Computador Aspiradora Lavadora Calefacciòn

Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances  The objective of the decomposition of the electricity consumption variation of a given appliance (e.g. refrigerators) between 2 years (e.g. 2000 and 2010) is to measure the effect of 3 factors: • Demographic effect : more households • Equipment ownership effect : impact of the increase in the number of appliances • Energy savings effect: influence of a decrease in the average specific consumption per appliance (kWh/year) 32

Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances : methodology • Appliance consumption E= HH*TEQ*SEC With: E consumption of the appliance HH: number of households TEQ: equipment ownership ratio (% of households with the appliance) SEC: average specific consumption of the appliance (kWh/year)  Calculation of electricity consumption variation between year 0 and t Demographic effect =∆HH*TEQ 0 *SEC 0 Equipment ownership effect: HH 0 *∆TEQ*SEC 0 Energy savings effect: HH t *TEQ t *∆SEC E t - E 0 = sum of 3 effects 33

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : example of TV Number of households % of households with TV Specific consumption of TV Total consumption of TV Unite 1000 % kWh GWh 2000 4416 82,3 292 1062 2010 5700 94,7 277 1497 Consumption of TV variation Effect of TV stock increase of which demographic effect of which equipement ownership effect Specific consumption effect GWh GWh GWh 2000-2010 435 514 309 205 -79

Drivers of consumption variation for TV (GWh) (2000-2010)

500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 Consumption variation demographic effect equipement ownership effect Energy savings effect 34

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of refrigerators in Brazil    The increased number of households contributed to raise the consumption by 3.757 GWh (“demographic effect” ).

Progression in the diffusion of the equipment contributed to a further 1.402 GWh increase.

However, the consumption of refrigerators only increased by 4.039 GWh and not by 5.159 GWh as energy savings contributed lower the consumption by 1.119 GWh.

Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for refrigerators in Brazil (2005-2012)

5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 -1 000 -2 000 Consumption variation Demographic effect Equipment ownership effect Energy savings effect Source: EPE 35

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of air conditioning in Brazil • • The equipment ownership was the main factor for the consumption increase; This happened due to demographic effect as well as the increase in income in the period, attending a part of the pent-up demand for air conditioners.

Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for air conditioning in Brazil (2005 2012)

3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 -500 -1 000 Consumption variation Demographic effect Equipment ownership effect Energy savings effect Source: EPE 36