Transcript Public Planning in Pakistan

Public Planning in
Pakistan
By; Engr.Dr. Attaullah Shah
BSc Engg ( Gold Medlaist), MSc Engg ( Strs), MBA, MA ( Eco)
MSc Envir Design, PGD Computer Sc,
Tel: 051-9250100
E-mail: [email protected].
What is Planning?
What needs to be done by whom and when
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Setting of objectives for an organization and
establishing the policies, procedures, programs
necessary to achieve them.
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Why?
To reduce uncertainty
 Improve efficiency
 Better understanding of objectives
 Provide Base for Monitoring and Controlling.
Types:
 Strategic Planning: Five years or more Tactical Planning: One to two years.
 Operational Planning: One day to few months
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Component of Planning
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Objectives: Goals and targets.
Program: Strategy and Major actions.
Schedule: Plan of start and finish of individual and group
activities.
Budget: Planned Expenditures required to achieve or exceed
objectives.
Forecast: Projection that what will happen at some future
date?
Organization: Design , NO. and kinds of positions along
with corresponding duties and responsibilities to achieve or
exceed organizational objectives.
Policy: General guidelines for decision making.
Procedure: A detailed Method of carrying out a policy.
Standard: A level of individual or group performance defined
as acceptable and adequate.
WHAT IS VISION?
Seven Principles of Sound Public Policy
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#1: Free people are not equal, and equal people are not
free.
#2: What belongs to you, you tend to take care of; what
belongs to no one or everyone tends to fall into disrepair.
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#3: Sound policy requires that we consider long-run
effects and all people, not simply short-run effects and a
few people.
#4: If you encourage something, you get more of it; if
you discourage something, you get less of it
#5: Nobody spends somebody else's money as carefully
as he spends his own.
#6: Government has nothing to give anybody except
what it first takes from somebody, and a government
that's big enough to give you everything you want is big
enough to take away everything you've got.
#7: Liberty makes all the difference in the world.
Major challenges to Developing Nations
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Achievement of economic independence,
Overcoming backwardness and Poverty Alleviation
Implementation of socio-economic transformation.
Sustainable development.
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Planning is a dynamic process, a method of analysis and
thinking which may or may not involve the preparation
of comprehensive legally binding blueprint for socioeconomic development.
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In essence, a plan is a package of economic and social
policies expressed with quantified targets and objectives
to be achieved during a laid-down period
History of Planning Bodies in Pakistan
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Development Board was established early in 1948
In 1950 a Six-Year Development Plan was formulated and
embodied in the Colombo Plan for Cooperative Economic
Development in South and South East Asia..
Planning Board: 18th July, 1953,
To develop the resources of the country as rapidly as possible so as
to promote the welfare of the people, provide adequate living
standards, and social services, secure social justice and equality of
opportunity to all and aim at the widest and most equitable
distribution of national wealth.
Planning Commission On 22nd October 1958, the President was
pleased to re-designate the National Planning Board as the
Planning Commission.
Federal Ministries/Divisions
The Federal Ministries
are responsible for the preparation of programmes and projects in
their respective fields of interest including autonomous
organizations under their control
Conceptual Plans.
Perspective Plan-Vision Plan ( Ex: 2030 Vision)
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To provide a long-term (15-25 years) economic and social policy
framework so that the objectives to be achieved over a much
longer period can be incorporated in a medium-term framework.
Five Year Plan:
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A five year plan is a general statement of objectives and targets
relating to the economy as a whole and its various component
sectors.
Roll-On Plan
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In order to bring flexibility into the Five Year, a roll-on plan of
medium term is designed in which the sectoral and project-wise
position is adjusted according to the foregoing year
Annual Plan
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It is regarded as the implementation side of the five year plan.
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The annual plan includes an evaluation of past performance, a
presentation of the main targets, an assessment of the resource
position for the year.
Public Sector Development Program
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PSDP
The Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) is
an annual document which lists all the public sector
projects/ programmes with specific allocations made for
each one of them in that particular financial year. ( 1920
Projects in 2006-07)
Federal Vs Provincial Projects
Major share of the total Development Programme is
allocated to Federal projects
While the remainder is allocated to the Provincial
Development Programme.
FEASIBILITY STUDY
Pre-requisite for preparation of a major development project on
sound lines, and is not ruled out even for a minor one
Preparation/Processing of PC-II.
 For Large projects of cost 500 Million or more
 Consultants are appointed for pre-feasibility.
 The consultancy charges should not exceed 10%
PC-I/Project Feasibility:
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Part 'A' is the "Project Digest", containing eight questions which are more
or less common to all sectoral PC-Is forms.
Part 'B' entitled "Project Description and Financing",
Part 'C' deals with "Project Requirements".
Part 'D' deals with environmental aspects.
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PC-III Proforma
Designed to furnish information on the progress of on-going
projects on quarterly basis
PC-IV & V Proformae
PC-IV form is required to be submitted at the time when the
project is adjudged to be complete while the PC-V form is to be
furnished on an annual basis for a period of five years by the
agencies responsible for operation and maintenance of the
projects.
Umbrella PC-I
Some times a Federal Ministry is required to prepare a PC-I
having provincial components to be financed through a joint
loan by a donor agency.
Project Appraisal.
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Technical Analysis
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The analysis for determining the technical viability of the development project is based
on the technical data and information given in the PC-I form as well as the earlier
experience of carrying out similar projects.
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Institutional/Organizational/Managerial Analysis
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A whole range of issues in project preparation revolves around the overlapping
institutional, organizational and managerial aspects of the project.
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Social Analysis
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Social analysis is undertaken to examine the aspects like employment
opportunities and income distribution.
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Commercial Analysis
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The commercial aspects of a project include the arrangements for marketing the
output produced by the project and the arrangement for the supply of inputs
needed to build and operate the project
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Financial Analysis
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Financial analysis involves assessment of financial impact, judgment of efficient
resource use, assessment of incentives, provision of a sound financing plan,
coordination of financial contribution and assessment of financial management
competence.
Economic Analysis
 Analysis from the economic aspect assesses the
desirability of an investment proposal in terms of its
effect on the economy.
Remarks:
 The planning process in Pakistan starts with the PC1.
This is a document, which by its very nature excludes
any public discussion and debate and in fact, makes it
redundant. To avoid the disasters we have experienced
in the name of development, it is imperative that
discussions and consultations between citizens and
government agencies take place at the conceptual level
of the project.
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Director Urban Resource Center Karachi
PROJECT APPROVING BODIES
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National Economic Council (NEC) –CEO/PM as Chief
( No limit)
Executive Committee of National Economic Council
(ECNEC) Above 500 M
Headed by the Federal Minister of Finance/ Adviser to the
Prime Minister for Finance and Economic and Planning.
Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC)
Headed by the Federal Minister for Finance and Federal
Ministers of economic ministries as its members. It attends to
all urgent day-to-day economic matters and coordinates the
economic policies initiated by the various Divisions of the
Government
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Central Development Working Party (CDWP)
Headed by the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission and
which includes as its members the Secretaries of the Federal
Ministries concerned with the development and the heads of
the Planning Departments of the Provincial Governments.
Departmental Development Working Party
(DDWP/DSC)
Headed by the respective Secretary/ Head of Department and
includes representatives of Finance Division and concerned
Technical Section in the Planning and Development Division.
Provincial Working Party (PDWP):
headed by the Chairman, Development Board/Additional
Chief Secretary (Development) and includes Secretaries of the
Provincial Departments concerned with development, as its
members
Planning History of Pakistan
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By 1950 a six-year plan drafted. But the initial effort was
unsystematic.
First Five-Year Plan (1955-60). Not implemented,
because political instability led to a neglect of economic policy,
but in 1958 the government renewed its commitment to
planning by establishing the Planning Commission.
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The Second Five-Year Plan (1960-65) surpassed its major goals
when all sectors showed substantial growth.
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Third Five-Year Plan (1965-70), designed along the lines of its
immediate predecessor, produced only modest growth.
The Fourth Five-Year Plan (1970-75) was abandoned as East
Pakistan became independent Bangladesh.
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•The Fifth Five-Year Plan (1978-83) was an attempt to stabilize the
economy and improve the standard of living of the poorest segment of
the population. Increased defense expenditures and a flood of refugees
to Pakistan after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979.
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Sixth Five-Year Plan (1983-88) represented a significant shift
toward the private sector.
The Seventh Five-Year Plan (1988-93) provided for total publicsector spending of Rs350 billion.
Eighth
Five-Year Plan (1993-98): The Plan, which ended up in
achieving far less than proposed development targets, dealt with the
issues of sustainable environment and management of water resources.
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Ninth Five-Year Plan (1998-2003): Could not materialize
due to change of Government.
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Ten-Year Perspective Development Plan (2001-2011): By
adopting strategies to reach the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs), the Ten-Year Perspective Development Plan
was launched into operation on 1st July, 2001. Its total size
has been fixed at Rs.11,287 billion in current prices out of
which Rs.8,747 billion have been envisaged as the investment
of private sector and Rs.2,540 billion as Public Sector
Development Program (PSDP).
Millennium Development Goals.
Goal 1: Eradicating Extreme Poverty and Hunger
Goal 2: Achieving Universal Primary Education.
Goal 3: Promoting Gender Equality and Women Empowerment.
Goal 4: Reducing Child Mortality.
Goal 5: Improving Maternal Health.
Goal 6: Combating HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases.
Goal 7: Ensuring Environmental Sustainability.
MTDF 2005-10 is to Eventually Realize the
Long Term Vision 2030
Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan
through rapid and sustainable development in a resource
constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs.
MTDF 2005-10: Objectives
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Establishing a just and sustainable economic system for
reducing poverty and achieving Millennium Development Goals
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Organised and disciplined movement towards an efficient, balanced,
internationally competitive, environment friendly, and technologically
driven knowledge economy for rapid and sustainable growth to become
an industrialized nation in 25 years
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Evolving a mature, tolerant, democratic society which is developed
economically, culturally, ethically and imbibed with Islamic values of
moderation and enlightenment, and at peace with itself and with the rest
of the world
(PM and his team
Integratedassisted
System
by With
Checks Planning
& Balances
Commission)
(All
Associate
Ministries)Stakeholders
in Prov
Decision
making
.
Govts
(Concerned
Support
Ministries and
Infrastructure
organizations)
Manufacturing
(MOST &
Innovative Expansion
of
Hec)
-Presidents Long
Term
Vision
-Integrated Approach
-Result Orientation
-Team(PM
Work
and
Technological Base
Technology
(All Ministries)
Planning Commission
Policy
to assist
for avoiding
Instruments
No
conflicts
conflicts
Complete
National
Planning Commission
Roadmap
in consultation
all stake
forwith
seamless
holders development
HRD
(HEC + MOE + Prov.
Human Resource
Govt.)
Development
his Team)
National Vocational
Training Authority)
(All
Ministries)
Input
from Technical
Prov .
& Professional
Orgns.
Govts
The MTDF Size
Rs Billion
2004-05
2005-06
2009-10
2005-10
Total Investment
1102.6
1257.4
1967.5
7951.9
Fixed
Investment
999.3
1145.6
1815.7
7298.5
Public
286.2
356.2
712.1
2536.7
(PSDP)
(202)
(272)
(597)
(2042)
713.1
789.5
1103.6
4761.8
Private
Overall PSDP by Objectives
Rs Billion
Objective
Upgrading physical
infrastructure
Achieving Millennium
Development Goals
Balanced Development
Accelerating output growth
Others
Total
MTDF
Allocation
993.2
% share
681.5
33.4
270.1
13.2
66.3
3.2
30.9
2,042.0
48.6
1.5
100.0
Employment Generation (2005-10)
Employment
2004-05
Benchmark
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Total
(6) – (1)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Agriculture
18.59
18.74
18.90
19.07
19.24
19.42
0.84
Manufacturing
5.92
6.11
6.30
6.51
6.72
6.95
1.03
Electricity & Gas
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.30
0.30
0.01
Construction
2.52
2.62
2.73
2.85
2.98
3.11
0.59
Wholesale & Retail
Trade
6.39
6.72
7.09
7.48
7.91
8.36
1.97
Transport &
Communication
2.47
2.55
2.62
2.70
2.79
2.89
0.41
Finance &
Insurance
0.46
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.48
0.49
0.03
Community and
Social Services
6.48
6.83
7.21
7.63
8.08
8.57
2.09
Total
43.15
44.36
45.66
47.04
48.53
50.12
6.97
Sector
PAKISTAN- Vision 2030
 Developed,
industrialized, just and prosperous
Pakistan through rapid and sustainable
development in a resource constrained economy by
deploying knowledge inputs
The Global Paradigm for Pakistan
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Only those countries would grow rich and powerful in the
21st century who:
Position Themselves for Competitive Advantage
Generate Knowledge and Innovate for High Growth
•Use Globalization to Attract Relocation of Manufacturing
, Design , and Services
•Attract and Retain Foreign Funds including Foreign
Private Investment
Move Rapidly into Regional and Global Hubs
FAILURE WILL LEAD TO MARGINALISATION
Critical Challenges and Opportunities
• Dispersion of information and technology
• Climatic change
• Depleting natural resources of water, land,
and usable energy making Pakistan vulnerable
• Urban concentrations and growth of large
cities with completely different dynamics
affecting all spheres of human activities
• Major demographic transitions
Many Challenges for 2030: Take Just Four
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Energy
Water and Agriculture
Demographics
Urbanization
Energy for Growth:
Energy security plan 2030 already approved (MTDF)
Total primary energy consumption to rise 7 fold
(55 to 360 MTOE by 2030)
Power generation : from 19,540 MW to 162,590 MW
Major shift planned: to coal, nuclear, and renewable
Pakistan is running out of useable, affordable energy … more
efficient use absolutely vital
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Water and Agriculture
High growth rates in agriculture unrealizable with:
Present technology, practice and attitude
Low water storage, high wastage
Sub-optimal cropping pattern
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Demographics: 218 million in 2030
(over 60 % urban)
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To realize the dividend of demographic transition
investment in HRD is of critical importance:
Employment opportunities
Productivity increase
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Urbanization 2030
Global Urban Dwellers exceeded those in rural areas for
the first time in human history in 2005 … [Shenzhen, a small
town, now has reached a higher population than London in
only 20 years]
 In Pakistan, too, more and more settlements will grow
into their equilibrium size – optimal and functional hierarchies
of settlements.
 Pakistan’s urban population is projected to increase from the
current 55 million to about 130 m by 2030
 … another 70-80 million people in only 25 years!
 Housing? Services? Slums? Unemployment? Social cohesion?
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The Changing Face of Competition
Competitive advantage will be achieved through:
– Excellence of public institutions
– Knowledge, information, skill levels and
competence in technology ….. and its assimilation
– Macroeconomic environment restructuring and
reform of the educational system
– Enablers of the knowledge economy
– Legal and regulatory infrastructure for IPR and
resolution of commercial disputes
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Salient Features of Vision 2030
Fulfill the promise of a gifted nation by using
knowledge and all its manifestations to become
an affluent and progressive society
 Raise quality of life for all citizens and regions
of Pakistan
 Achieve competence in technology
 Evolve a mature democratic and just society
 Be an effective global player, not a target
 …… Achieve all this within one generation
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Pakistan Society 2030
Development measured by the quality of life
 A prosperous society:
– GDP to rise to USD 700 billion
– High per capita incomes : rising to USD 3,000
 Alleviation of poverty
 Higher indices for health, education and life expectancy
 Social safety nets
 An equitable society:
 Common and shared destiny and vision
 Respect for the rule of law
 Equal opportunities for all
 Protection of every citizen irrespective of ethnicity,
creed, gender or age
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Pakistan Economy 2030
Availability and quality of physical infrastructure
 Excellence of public institutions
 Internationally competitive, innovative, environment friendly
and technology driven
 Higher levels of investment
 Improvement in productivity through higher skills,
knowledge inputs, better governance structures, improved
quality and encouraging brand names
 Many more regional hubs and centers
 Major reduction in wastage
 Preserving inter-generational equity while exploiting the
natural resources
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25 Years’ Quest for Excellence (Examples)
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Education:
At least 10 universities would be among the top 200
globally recognized.
Communications
Would be at the centre of major North-South and
East-West transport corridors.
Technology Centers
Known for its competitiveness, innovation, and
productivity
What should Karachi look like in 2030?
One of the great cities of the world, noted for its quality of
life.
 A diverse yet socially cohesive population of around
30 million pulsing with commerce and industry with creative
ideas
 Schools and universities eagerly sought for their educationally
stimulating environments, with excellent and affordable
healthcare facilities.
 A regional hub for electronics, pharmaceuticals and
biotechnology, as well as financial services
 A major hub for travel sitting at the southern end of a major
transport corridor
 All major cities and urban centers will define such visions
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Essence of Survival
“Every
morning in Africa, a Gazelle wakes up,
it knows it must run faster than the fastest Lion or it
will be killed. Every morning a Lion wakes
up, it knows it must outrun the slowest Gazelle or
it will starve to death. It does not matter whether
you are a Lion or a Gazelle – when the sun comes
up; You’d better be running.”
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Planning in Pakistan