Power LCAT - United States Association for Energy Economics

Transcript Power LCAT - United States Association for Energy Economics

Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT)

Dr. Thomas E. Drennen, Sandia National Laboratories Joel S. Andruski and Ryan Williams Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges Timothy J. Skone, P.E. and Justin M. Adder Office of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning, NETL 32 nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Anchorage, Alaska July 28 – 31, 2013 SAND2013-5876C

Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Introduction

• • • • • The Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT) is a Department of Energy-funded collaboration between the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This high-level, dynamic model calculates production costs and tracks environmental performance— providing users with the total amount of greenhouse gases created at each of five stages of the technology’s life—for a range of electricity generation technologies. Policy makers, students, and stakeholders can use this tool to consider the entire life cycle of an energy technology, from raw materials acquisition to final product transport.

This intuitive tool includes four main sections: – The “

Production Analysis

” section calculates the cost of electricity (in $/kWh) for each option and allows users to explore key sensitivities. – The “

Environmental Performance

” section estimates aggregate greenhouse gas and non-greenhouse gas emissions, as well as water usage at each stage in the life cycle of electricity production. – – The “

Costs vs. Emissions

” section explores the tradeoffs between costs (in $/kWh) and greenhouse gas emissions (in kg CO 2 equivalent/MWh). The “

Sensitivity Analysis

” section of Power LCAT allows variation of several assumptions—such as capital costs, operations and fuel costs, interest rates, efficiency, and capacity factors— simultaneously while providing graphical representation of the result.

Power LCAT provides users with a clear understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with various electricity production options.

Power LCAT Technologies

• The technology options are based on detailed life cycle analysis reports conducted by NETL and include: • • • • • • Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC), Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC), Supercritical Pulverized Coal (SCPC), Existing Pulverized Coal (EXPC), Existing (EXNUC) and new Nuclear (Gen III Plus), and Onshore Wind (with and without backup power). • The goal of the NETL studies are to compare existing and future technology options using a life cycle analysis (LCA) which include: • • • • • Raw Material Acquisition Raw Material Transport Energy Conversion Facility Product Transport End Use • All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS).

Production Analysis

This section calculates the cost of electricity (in $/kWh) for each option and allows users to explore key sensitivities. Color-coded cost components allow for quick understanding of key sensitivities.

Production Analysis Graph Table 0.0790

Environmental Performance 0.1044

0.0601

Costs vs Emissions 0.1028

Sensitivity Analysis 0.0652

Master Sheet 0.0922

IGCC

IGCC

SCPC



NGCC CA PITA L COST 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 FIXED O&M 150 120 90 60 30 0 2,446.56 $/kW 79.0067 $/kW

 SCPC   NGCC 

EXPC With CCS USCPC Technical Capacity Factor Transmission Loss Plant Life Heat Rate CO2 Capture GEN III+ Nuclear EXNUC Without CCS Finance WIND VA RIA BLE O&M 80 % 7 % 30 yrs 8,756 Btu/kWh 0% 0.020

0.015

0.010

0.005

0.000



USER DEFINED FUEL COST (COA L) 10 8 6 4 2 0 0.0073 $/kWh 1.51 $/MMBtu

Production Analysis

At current natural gas prices ($3.68/MMBtu; 7/10/13), NGCC plants are the least cost option. Uncertainty bars show the possible variation based on user-defined uncertainties.

Production Analysis

The

Financial Assumptions Screen

allows user to vary financial parameters, including debt/equity financing rates, federal and state taxes, depreciation, construction time, CO 2 taxes, and plant life.

Production Analysis

This example illustrates the effect of CO 2 taxes on the relative economics. A $55/tCO 2 SCPC with CCS cost competitive with SCPC without CCS. tax makes

Environmental Performance

This section tracks the life cycle emissions of key greenhouse gases (GHG), other pollutants, and water withdrawals and consumption.

Production Analysis Environmental Performance LC Greenhouse Gases Costs vs Emissions Other LC Environmental Factors Sensitivity Analysis Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases 930.91

201.41

942.41

221.05

499.32

Master Sheet 175.3

0 17 Life Cycle Analysis Stages Raw Material A cquisition Raw Material Transport Energy Conversion Facility Product Transport Life Cycle A nalysis Total Carbon Dioxide Nitrous Oxidide Methane Sulfur Hexafluoride



Carbon Equivalent Benchmark No CO2e Benchmark Display CO2e Benchmark Carbon Equivalent Benchmark 1,000 kg CO2e/MWh 2,205 lb CO2e/MWh

NGCC  NGCC CCS 

Global Warming Potential Assumptions 2001 IPCC GWP 20-Yr Time Horizon 2001 IPCC GWP 100-Yr Time Horizon 2001 IPCC GWP 500-Yr Time Horizon 2007 IPCC GWP 20-Yr Time Horizon 2007 IPCC GWP 100-Yr Time Horizon 2007 IPCC GWP 500-Yr Time Horizon

IGCC 857.93

0.029

69.75

3.20

930.91

 IGCC CCS 115.12

0.040

83.05

3.20

201.41

 SCPC 871.50

0.027

67.69

3.20

942.41

 SCPC CCS 122.56

0.038

95.25

3.20

221.05

 NGCC 418.35

0.211

77.49

3.27

499.32

 NGCC CCS 80.98

0.249

90.79

3.27

175.30



Environmental Performance

Along with GHG emissions, this section gives static emissions metrics for several other environmental factors on a life cycle basis: Pb, Hg, NH3, CO, NOx, SOx, VOC, PM, and H 2 O (withdrawals and consumption).

Production Analysis Environmental Performance Costs vs Emissions Sensitivity Analysis Pb Hg LC Greenhouse Gases NH3 CO Lead (Pb) - Life Cycle A nalysis 5E-05 1.35e-5 4E-05 1.66e-5 Other LC Environmental Factors NOx SOx Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases VOC PM Water Withdrawal 4.54e-5 4.65e-5 4.87e-6 3E-05 2E-05 1E-05 0

R M A R M T IGCC E C F PT  T o ta l R M A R M T E C F IGCC CCS PT  o T l ta R M A R M T SCPC E C F PT  T o ta l R M A R M T E C F SCPC CCS PT  T o ta l

Water Consumption Master Sheet 5.61e-6

R M A R M T NGCC E C F PT  o T l ta R M A R M T E C F NGCC CCS PT  o T ta l

Stage 1 - RMA



Stage 2 - RMT Stage 3 - ECF Stage 4 - PT Total (kg/MWh)

IGCC 2.90e-7 1.70e-7 1.30e-5 0.00

1.35e-5

 IGCC CCS 3.50e-7 2.10e-7 1.60e-5 0.00

1.66e-5

 SCPC 2.90e-7 9.20e-8 4.50e-5 0.00

4.54e-5

 SCPC CCS 4.00e-7 1.30e-7 4.60e-5 0.00

4.65e-5

 NGCC 1.99e-6 1.65e-7 2.71e-6 0.00

4.87e-6

 NGCC CCS 2.33e-6 1.94e-7 3.09e-6 0.00

5.61e-6



Environmental Performance

The

Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases

screen compares GHG emissions from the plant (ECF stage) against a specified benchmark.

Production Analysis Environmental Performance LC Greenhouse Gases Costs vs Emissions Other LC Environmental Factors Sensitivity Analysis Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 654.6

500 0 17 Net vs Gross Generation Assumptions Net Generation Basis Gross Generation Basis 66.48

765.26

87.11

Carbon Equivalent Benchmark No CO2e Benchmark Display CO2e Benchmark Carbon Equivalent Benchmark 454 kg CO2e/MWh 1,001 lb CO2e/MWh 361.06

NGCC 

Master Sheet 44.43

NGCC CCS 

 IGCC 654.59

0.005

0.00

5.49e-3

654.60

 IGCC CCS 66.43

0.009

0.03

5.52e-3

66.48

 SCPC 765.21

0.008

0.03

6.66e-3

765.26

 SCPC CCS 87.06

0.011

0.03

5.84e-3

87.11

 NGCC 361.03

0.004

0.01

7.16e-3

361.06

 NGCC CCS 44.40

0.006

0.02

7.90e-3

44.43



Costs vs Emissions

This section explores the tradeoffs between production costs ($/kWh) and Life Cycle (LC) GHG performance (kg CO 2 e/MWh) .

Production Analysis Environmental Performance Costs vs Emissions Sensitivity Analysis Master Sheet Production Cost vs. LC GHG Performance 10 GHG (kg CO2e/MWh)

($/kWh) 

GHG (kg CO2e/MWh) COE ($/kWh) Low Case Change High Case Change IGCC 930.91

0.0790

0.0649

0.0934

Symbol IGCC CCS 201.41

0.1044

0.0853

0.1240

SCPC 942.41

0.0601

0.0502

0.0706

SCPC CCS 221.05

0.1028

0.0842

0.1220

NGCC 499.32

0.0652

0.0618

0.0709

NGCC CCS 175.30

0.0922

0.0846

0.1025

EXPC 1,097.33

0.0174

0.0172

0.0184

EXPC CCS 444.54

0.0578

0.0488

0.0678

USCPC 0.00

0.0000

USCPC CCS 0.00

0.0000

Gen III+ EXNUC 25.28

0.1078

0.0838

0.1305

38.87

0.0174

0.0178

0.0174

Wind 542.42

0.0811

0.0776

0.0844

User Defined 0.00

0.0000

Costs vs Emissions

Adding carbon capture and storage (CCS) to an EXPC plant lowers the emissions, but increases the costs. Costs and emissions are now comparable to a new NGCC plant without CCS.

Production Analysis Environmental Performance Costs vs Emissions Sensitivity Analysis Master Sheet Production Cost vs. LC GHG Performance 11 GHG (kg CO2e/MWh)

($/kWh) 

GHG (kg CO2e/MWh) COE ($/kWh) Low Case Change High Case Change IGCC 930.91

0.0790

0.0649

0.0934

Symbol IGCC CCS 201.41

0.1044

0.0853

0.1240

SCPC 942.41

0.0601

0.0502

0.0706

SCPC CCS 221.05

0.1028

0.0842

0.1220

NGCC 499.32

0.0652

0.0618

0.0709

NGCC CCS 175.30

0.0922

0.0846

0.1025

EXPC 1,097.33

0.0174

0.0172

0.0184

EXPC CCS 444.54

0.0578

0.0488

0.0678

USCPC 0.00

0.0000

USCPC CCS 0.00

0.0000

Gen III+ EXNUC 25.28

0.1078

0.0838

0.1305

38.87

0.0174

0.0178

0.0174

Wind 542.42

0.0811

0.0776

0.0844

User Defined 0.00

0.0000

Sensitivity Analysis

This section allows one to vary several assumptions simultaneously. Parameters are varied by cost category. Tornado plot shows sensitivity by cost category. Table displays cumulative cost range.

Sensitivity Analysis

The

Break-Even Analysis option

makes it possible to find cost assumption points at which technologies are cost competitive. For example, capital costs below $2,500 $/kW would allow a new nuclear plant to compete economically with a new super critical coal plant (SCPC).

Production Analysis Environmental Performance Costs vs Emissions COE Graph COE Table Fuel Price Capacity Factor 0.2

Capital Cost Interest Rate CO2e Tax Construction Time Master Sheet 0.15

0.1

0.05

0 00 625 1250 1875 2500 3125 3750 Capital Cost ($/kW) 4375 5000 5625 6250 Capital Cost ($/kW)

Break-Even Analysis  IGCC SCPC NGCC Wind Onshore EXNUC

    

0.0184

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

625 1,250 0.0289

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.0393

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

1,875 2,500 3,125 3,750 4,375 0.0498

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.0602

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.0706

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.0811

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.0915

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

5,000 5,625 6,250 0.1019

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.1124

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

0.1228

0.0790

0.0601

0.0652

0.0811

0.0174

Results

•

For the default model assumptions, the results show that:

•

For the fossil fuel technology options the supercritical pulverized coal plant is the lowest cost option at 6.01 cents/kWh.

•

The next lowest cost fossil fuel option is the natural gas combined cycle plant (6.52 cents/kWh) and then the integrated gasification combined cycle plant (7.90 cents/kWh). At current market prices, the NGCC plant becomes the low cost option (4.28 cents/kWh for natural gas price at 3.68 $/MMBtu).

•

While existing nuclear plants produce power at very low cost (1.74 cents/kWh), power from a new Gen III+ nuclear plant would be more expensive than the fossil-fuel alternatives (10.78 cents/kWh).

•

Power LCAT currently includes one renewable technology option – a 2 MW wind turbine with a gas turbine simple cycle backup (8.11 cents/kWh) and without natural gas plant backup (4.91 cents/kWh).

Conclusion

• • • • The Power LCAT is a high-level dynamic model that calculates production costs and tracks environmental performance for a range of electricity generation technologies: • natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), • integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), • supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC), • existing pulverized coal (EXPC), • existing (EXNUC) and new nuclear (Gen III Plus), and • onshore wind (with and without backup power). All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS). The model allows for quick sensitivity analysis on key technical and financial assumptions, such as: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction time; heat rates; taxes; depreciation; and capacity factors. Power LCAT is targeted at helping policy makers, students, and interested stakeholders understand the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with various electricity production options.

Model Availability

Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT) is available on the NETL website:

NETL Energy Analysis Models and Tools

Production Analysis Environmental Performance Costs vs Emissions Sensitivity Analysis

Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT)

Version 2.0

May 2012 Modeling Team Thomas E. Drennen and Joel S. Andruski Timothy J. Skone, P.E. and Justin M. Adder Terms Assumptions Sources Legend http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy analyses/refshelf/PubDetails.aspx?Action=View&Source=Main&PubId=429

Contact Information

NETL

www.netl.doe.gov

Timothy J. Skone, P.E.

Lead Physical Engineer OSEAP - Planning Team (412) 386-4495

[email protected]

Justin M. Adder

Economist OSEAP - Planning Team (412) 386-7309

[email protected]

SNL

www.sandia.gov

Dr. Thomas E. Drennen

Senior Economist, SNL Professor of Economics, HWS Colleges (315) 781-3419

[email protected]