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Chapter 9
NOMINATIONS,
ELECTIONS, AND
CAMPAIGNS
2
The Evolution of Campaigning
During election campaigns, political parties
help structure voting choice
Successful campaigns need resources to
acquire, analyze, and disseminate
information
Voter interests
Campaign tactics
Candidate message
Voter turnout
3
The Evolution of Campaigning
Until 1950s, political parties ran most
campaigns
Today’s candidates manage own
campaigns
Races more candidate-centered
Must campaign for nomination as well as
election
Parties help with funding and party label
4
Nominations
American political parties use elections
to choose party nominees
In most other countries, party leaders
choose nominees
In America, each state has own set of laws
regarding party nominations
America puts large burden on voters
5
Compared With What?
Image of
voter ballots for U.S. and
British elections
6
Nomination for Congress
and State Offices
All states use a primary election as all or
part of the nomination process
Nomination process highly decentralized
Only half of regular party voters vote in a
given primary
Many primary races have little or no
competition
7
Primary Elections
Four types of primary elections:
Closed primaries
Open primaries
Modified closed primaries
Modified open primaries
Most scholars believe type of primary
affects strength of party organizations
8
Nomination for President
Presidential candidates for each party
chosen at national convention
Until 1960s, party delegates to national
convention chose nominee
Since 1972, delegates have been chosen
by complex process that includes the
primary election and party caucuses
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Selecting Convention Delegates
Different states and parties have different
procedures for selecting delegates
States follow one of two basic formats:
Presidential primary
Presidential primary/caucus
Democratic selection proportional;
Republicans “winner takes all”
10
Selecting Convention Delegates
Delegates selected openly back one of
the presidential candidates
Primary elections and caucuses mean
nominees’ names usually known before
national conventions
Early primaries and caucuses result in
“front-loading”
11
Changes in the Presidential
Nominating Process
Until 1968
Since 1972
Party Dominated
Candidate Dominated
Few Primaries
Many Primaries
Short Campaigns
Long Campaigns
Easy Money
Difficult Fundraising
Limited Media Coverage
Media Focused
Late Decisions
“Front-Loaded”
Open Conventions
Closed Conventions
12
Campaigning for the Nomination
A complex, drawn-out process
Invisible primary
Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire
primary viewed as testing grounds
In 2008, narrowed field to five
Republicans and seven Democrats
“Super Tuesday” resulted in one
Republican and two Democrats with the
most support by voters
13
“Only in America”
Marvels the World
14
Campaigning for the Nomination
John McCain set as Republican nominee
after Super Tuesday
Democratic contest not settled until
June 7th
15
Consequences of
Presidential Campaigns
Races with no incumbents contested in both
parties
Incumbent presidents usually face little
opposition
Iowa and New Hampshire do matter
Candidates favored most by party identifiers
usually win nomination
Winners owe little to national party
organization
16
Figure 9.1
From Many to Two: Presidential
Hopefuls Starting and Dropping Out
17
Elections
By national law, all seats in House of
Representatives and 1/3 of seats in
Senate elected every two years in
general election
State and local offices also on ballot
President chosen every 4th year in
presidential election
Non-presidential elections congressional,
mid-term, or off-year elections
18
Presidential Elections and
the Electoral College - video
Presidency not automatically given to
person with the most votes in the general
election
General election selects electors who then
select president
States receive one elector for each House
and Senate seat
Washington, D.C. also receives three electors
19
The Electoral College
Candidate must have a majority of
electoral votes (270) to win presidency
If no candidate receives majority,
decision on president made by the
House; Senate chooses vice president
Each state has one vote
Has only happened in 1800 and 1824
20
Figure 9.2
Populations Shifts and Political Gains
and Losses Since 1960
21
The Electoral College: Politics
Prior to 1860, most electors chosen by
state legislatures
After 1860, electors chosen by popular
vote
All states but Maine and Nebraska award
electors “winner takes all”
Election in 2000 came down to Florida’s
electoral votes
22
Figure 9.3
How America Votes
23
The Electoral College: Abolish It?
Over 700 proposals to abolish electoral college
introduced in Congress over the years
Electoral vote system allows states to decide how
electors chosen – a federal system
Many voters appear to prefer nationwide direct
popular vote
Grover Cleveland (1888) and George W. Bush (2000)
elected despite losing popular vote
24
Figure 9.4
The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote
25
Support for the Electoral College
Generally, results from electoral vote
system magnify popular vote results
Electoral college is a federal election
system:
Allows small states to have more weight in
process
Campaigns carried out via personal contact
versus the large market media
Nationwide recounts not needed
26
Congressional Elections
Candidates for president listed at top of
ballot, with other national, state, and
local offices below
Voters can vote straight ticket or split
ticket
between 15% and 30% of voters choose
president from one party and congressional
candidates from the other
Can result in divided government
27
Congressional Elections
Democrats basically in power until 1994
Winners from single member districts
are candidates with the most votes
“First-past-the-post” elections
Districts drawn by the party in power and
usually benefit dominant party
President’s party generally loses seats in
mid-term elections
28
Figure 9.5
Presidential Popularity and
Party Seat Loss/Gain
29
Campaigns: The Political Context
Most important structural factors in
campaign planning:
Office sought
Whether incumbent or challenger
Non-incumbents more successful in open
elections
More populous and/or diverse districts mean
more expensive campaigns
Party preference of electorate also important
30
Financing
Quality of campaign organizations a function
of money
However, money alone does not ensure success
“There are four parts to any campaign. The
candidate, the issues of the candidate, the
campaign organization, and the money to run
the campaign with. Without money, you can
forget the other three.” -- former House
Speaker Thomas (“Tip”) O’Neill
31
Regulating Campaign Financing
State and federal governments regulate
campaign financing
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)
passed in 1971
Amendments in 1972 created Federal Election
Commission (FEC)
Limits on political action committee (PAC)
contributions – both soft and hard money
After court challenges, 1974 FECA governed
elections for about 30 years
32
Regulating Campaign Financing
Increases in campaign contributions and
spending led to Bipartisan Campaign Reform
Act (BCRA) in 2002
Limits on contributions by individuals
Banned soft money contributions to political parties
Allowed 527 committees to spend unlimited
amounts for media, with some limits
2007 Supreme Court ruling struck down ban on issue
ads before elections
New committees formed – 501(c)4 social welfare organizations
2010 Supreme Court ruling overturned ban on
corporate contributions to candidates
33
Public Financing of
Presidential Campaigns
Both FECA and BCRA provided for public
financing for presidential campaigns
Subject to spending limits
Until 1996, all eligible candidates used public
funds for primary elections
Since 1996, more and more candidates
refusing public funds for primaries
Funding for general election follows different
rules; most candidates used until 2004
34
Private Financing of
Congressional Campaigns
Candidates for national office raised over
$3 billion during the 2007-2008 primary
and general elections
Obama raised almost $750 million
McCain raised almost $370 million
Congressional candidates raised almost $1.4
billion
35
Future Trends in Campaign Finance
Public funding faces uncertain future
Major candidates can raise more money
on their own
Contribution bundlers
Internet fundraising
BCRA limited soft money but not
amounts raised for presidential
campaigns
36
Strategies and Tactics
Strategies are broad approaches to
campaigns
Party-centered strategies
Issue-oriented strategies
Candidate-oriented strategies
Strategies must take into account
political context
37
Pollsters and Political Consultants
Well-funded campaigns buy “polling
packages”
Benchmark poll
Focus groups
Trend polls
Tracking polls
Information
gathered then used to tailor
campaign to current political situation
38
Making the News
News coverage valuable because it’s free
and seems objective to the public
Incumbents have advantage
News coverage frequently limited to
“sound bites”
Horse-race metaphors limit attention to
issues: bandwagons, losing ground, the
front-runner, and the likely loser
39
Advertising the Candidate
Main objective for campaigns ads:
name
recognition
Voters may not recall name but recognize
on a list, such as a ballot
Must also point out virtues of candidate
Campaign ads also sometimes attack
opponent or play on emotions
Majority of ads use electronic media
40
Advertising the Candidate video
Recent years’ ads tend to mention personal
characteristics rather than policy
preferences
Negative ads can be either attack ads or
contrast ads
Media sometimes report controversial ads as
news
Candidates must “approve” message in their
ads; independent groups do not
41
Using the Internet
Use started in 1992 with e-mail to
supporters
Democrats pioneered Internet usage in
election campaigns, both to raise funds and
mobilize supporters
Also use social networking sites, blogs, and
YouTube
Internet inexpensive way to quickly contact
supporters, but TV still best way to reach
average voters
42
Explaining Voting Choice
Long-term forces predispose voters to
choose certain types of candidates
Party identification most important
Short-term forces associated with
particular elections
Combination of candidates and policy
positions on current issues
43
Party Identification
Over half of electorate decides candidate
before party conventions
Early decisions generally vote based on
party identification
Each candidate in 2008 received 90% of vote of
self-described partisans
Independents generally favored Obama
Republicans have won more elections due to
lack of Democratic voter turnout and other
short-term factors
44
Figure 9.6
Effect of Party Identification
on the Vote, 2008
45
Hopes Fulfilled
46
Issues and Policies
Candidates exploit issues that seem to
be important to voters
Incumbent’s record versus problems
pointed out by challenger
Even with no incumbent, that party’s
candidate may be tied to outgoing
president
47
Hopes Dashed
48
Candidates’ Attributes
Attributes important because most
voters lack information about
candidates’ past performance and policy
stands
Stereotypical thinking may play into
some voters’ decisions
49
Evaluating the Voting Choice
Party identification and candidate
attributes not basis for voting according
to democratic theory
Citizens should vote based on past
performance and proposed policies
However, all are factors when developing
statistical models to explain voting
Historically, attributes and party
identification most important
50
Evaluating the Voting Choice
Recent studies show increase in policy-
based voting
Relationship between party
identification and voters’ positions on
issues more distinct today
Alignment between party and ideology
almost perfect in congressional voting
51
Campaign Effects
While campaign may not cause change in
party identification, can influence enough
votes to change outcome of election
Television ads main method for transmitting
candidates’ message
Battleground states key
Presidential campaign in 2008 most expensive
ever
No major candidate took federal matching funds
in primary; only McCain in general election
52
The Americanization of Campaigns
53
The Presidential Debates
First televised debate in 1960 between
John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon
In 1976, televised debates began airing
regularly
Presidential and vice-presidential
debates in 2008 election led to rise in
support for Obama in election polls
54
Campaigns, Elections, and Parties
Party organizations not central to elections
in America
Both parties follow majoritarian model by
formulating different party platforms and
pursuing announced policies when in office
Weak connection between party platform and
voters during campaigns and elections
Party platforms do not play major role in
elections, especially those for House and
Senate seats
55
Parties and the Pluralist Model
The way parties operate in America more
like pluralist model
Function as two giant interest groups
Parties prefer candidates who support party
platform
However, candidates operate as entrepreneurs,
and may vote against party leadership
Stronger parties might be able to better
coordinate government policies after
elections
56