Transcript FORECASTING THE FUTURE

FORECASTING
THE FUTURE
BY:
Christian Sango
Jonathan Bautista
Arturo Ensalada
Johnny Anuego
Jeffrey John Catacutan
Forecasting the Future
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MITOCHONDRIA ON PIAPI: An
Investigation on community’s Discernible
Features
How we gathered the data?
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First, we come up with a plan and we
choose a certain barangay to be the focus
of our study, and we’ve decided to study
the population of Barangay 21-C
Second, we choose different tasks to
perform such as the Data/Research
analyst, Demographer, Statistician,
Mathematician and Multi-Media Designer.
History of Barangay 21-C
(Piapi Boulevard)
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Located along Barangay 31-C Boulevard, Davao
City
Started as a squatters area in the late 1940’s and
early 50’s
In 1981 their was an accident happened in which
all the houses were burned out. After that
accident the government awarded the land to the
residents.
Majority of its population are composed of small
scale businessman.
Tabular Presentation of Population According to Age Group
Year
2003 2004 2005 2006
2007
2008
Children
931
1917
2197
Adolescence
1504 1605 1403 2114
2773 3993
Adult
378
794
891
Total
2813 3027 3170 4330
5484
7081
1011 1250 1517
411
517
699
Graphical Presentation of Population
According to Age Group
4000
3500
3000
2500
Children
Adolescence
Adult
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
Tabular Presentation of Over-all
Population
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total
2813
3027
3170
4330
5484
7081
Graphical presentation of the Overall
Population
8000
7000
6000
5000
Population
3-D Column 2
3-D Column 3
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Computations
Solution:
Formula
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P2 = P1 ert
Average constant rate = 0.261725
Time = 1 year
Year 2009
P2 = P1 ert = (7081) e 0.261725
= (7081) (1.29917)
= 9199
Population Projection from
2009-2013
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Population
9199
11951
15526
20171
26206
Projective profile of the Population of
Barangay 21-C from 2003-2013
Age Group
2003
2013
Children
931
9020
Adolescence
1504
13,389
Adult
378
3,797
Total
2,813
26,206
Projective profile of the Population
from 2003 to 2013
14000
12000
10000
8000
Children
Adolescence
Adult
6000
4000
2000
0
2003
2013
Tabular Presentation of the Top 5
Diseases in year 2003
Age Group
Diarrhea
Skin
Dengue
Diseases
Malnutrition
Tubercu
losis
Children
49
53
0
11
0
Adolescence
31
39
1
2
0
Adult
13
7
0
0
39
Total
93
7
0
0
39
Projective profile on the Top 5
Diseases affecting the barangay
Diseases
2003
2013
Diarrhea
93
63
Skin Disease
104
44
Dengue
1
-1
Malnutrition
13
23
Tuberculosis
39
-12
Graphical Presentation of Projective
profile on the Top 5 Diseases affecting the
barangay
120
100
80
Diarrhea
Skin Diseases
Dengue
Malnutrition
Tuberculosis
60
40
20
0
-20
2003
2013
Analysis & Interpretation of Data
After thorough investigation and gathering of data we come
up with the following analysis and interpretation:
1.
There is a sudden increase in population from year 20032008
2. There is a constant change in population of adolescence from
2003-2005.
3. There is a decrease in population of adolescence between
the year 2004-2005. according to the residents the
misunderstanding between the adolescent are very
rampant and it results to riot and encounters that
sometimes causes death.
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Analysis & Interpretation of Data
4. The number of adults of the said barangay
is too small compared to the adolescents,
this only proves that the life span of the
people on that area is short.
5. The great number of adolescence only
proves that the labor force of that
community is strong.
6. The disease like diarrhea and skin
problems are very rampant at all ages.
Analysis & Interpretation of Data
7. There are cases of malnutrition in children, there
is an increase of malnutrition cases and it’s
growing until 2013.
8. The case of tuberculosis are only present in
adults, this shows that TB occurs during adult
ages and can be totally eliminated through the
help of the Department of Health.
9. There is a decrease in number of cases of all
diseases.
Conclusion
From the result of computations, graphical
and tabular presentation of data and
analysis of it we conclude that:
1. The population grows exponentially.
2. The rate of increase in population of
barangay 21-C is 0.261725.
3. Mathematics help us to understand better
on how to compute the growth of
population.
Conclusion
4. The increase in population is affected by
factors such as time, diseases and change.
5. The increase in population affects the
health of the community.
Recommendations
We recommend the following as initial remedy to
the problems of barangay 21-C:
FOR THE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
1.
Must conduct seminar on population education
and inform that it has a big impact on the
economy. Focusing on responsible parenthood
and natural family planning.
2. Must do something like coming up with a
program to help the problem such as health
program.
Recommendations
FOR THE CITIZENS
1. They should cooperate with the program
of the government.
2. Need to discipline themselves to have
peaceful community.
3. A regular visit to health centers.
Reflection
With the help of this project we develop our
self-confidence, patience and mathematical
abilities. We also develop our analytical abilities
and skill in multimedia designing.
Through this project we also determine the
importance of statistics and mathematics in our
daily lives. The gathering of data and by making
a survey to a Barangay, our awareness in an
urban community expanded.
Reflection
Teamwork is very important to each group and
without this we cannot develop our values to
adjust to different situations. We need the
cooperation of each member to make our project
faster, easier and well-organized.
We learned also on how to deal with other
peoples such as the officials and the people in
health centers.
References
Population Resource Program, resource
Book in Population Education, 1983 pp 97100
McConnell, J,W. and others (1998). Algebra
(Integrated Mathematics), The University of
Chicago School of Mathematics Project,
Scott, Foresman and Company, Glenview,
illinois
Resource persons:
Mrs. Pacita Sevillano
Barangay Captain Odelon Yayo and officials
Barangay health Workers