Transcript Climate-smart agriculture

Climate change adaptation days, First Edition, 01-02 April 2014, Ouahigouya, Burkina Faso
Climate-smart agriculture:
Action for reduced vulnerability of Agriculture
and Food Systems to Climate Change
Dr Robert Zougmoré
Regional Program Leader West Africa
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
West Africa in brief
Key challenges
Plausible future scenarios of agriculture
Needs for climate-smart actions
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Socio economic overview of West Africa
Population in 2010 was about 290 million.
Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the
active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP.
In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from
US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than
US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other
countries having less than US$ 500
•Vegetation and Land use
•Under-five mortality is between
100 and 200/1000.
An average of about 70–80 percent of the
population lives on less than US$2 per day
• The majority of the countries have
a life expectancy of between 50 and
60 years.
Natural Resource Endowment in WA
10.3 % exploited in
West Africa
Arable Land 236 million ha
10 % developed
Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha
Significant pastoral
and fisheries
resources
However, West
African
economies are
especially
vulnerable to
climate change
as a result of
their heavy
dependence on
rainfed
agriculture.
Major challenges
• increase agricultural production among
resource-poor farmers without exacerbating
environmental problems
• and simultaneously coping with climate change
(adaptation).
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Length of growing season
is likely to decline..
Length of growing
period (%)
To 2090, taking 18
climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
>20% loss
5-20% loss
No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
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Scenarios for the future
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Analytical framework
• Integrates modeling components (macro to micro, to
model range of processes, from those driven by
economics to those that are essentially biological in
nature (IMPACT, HYDROLOGY, DSSAT, GCMs…)
• Used hundred of scenario maps, models, figures, and
their detailed analysis
• To generate plausible future scenarios that combine
economic and biophysical characteristics
• to explore the possible consequences for agriculture,
food security, and resources management to 2050
• National contributors from 11 countries reviewed the
scenario results for their countries and proposed a
variety of policies to counter the effects of climate
change on agriculture and food security.
Population and income
1. A significant increase in the population of all countries except
Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more
than double except Cape Verde
2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from
US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire.
3. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the
pessimistic scenario.
Rainfall
Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of:
1. changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavyrainfall areas, particularly along the coast,
2. or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain.
3. Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050,
CSIRO, A1B (mm)
MIROC, A1B (mm)
Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop
model: CSIRO A1B
MIROC A1B
Maize
Groundnut
Sorghum
Regional/landscape implications
Coastal West Africa
Sahelian region
Drought and floods could affect productivity and
even threaten the existence of plants and animals
along the coast and the Sahel, respectively
Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in
hitherto dry areas in the Sahel
Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to
unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of
inputs to farming areas and produce to market
Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new
farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits
How can smallholder
farmers achieve food
security under a changing
climate?
We need climate-smart agriculture
actions at all levels
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Agriculture must become
“climate-smart”
•
•
•
•
sustainably increases productivity
Increases resilience (adaptation)
reduces greenhouse gases where possible
and enhances the achievement of national food
security and development goals
Farm and
community:
climate-smart
practices,
institutions
National and
regional:
enabling policies,
extension,
support,
research, finance
Climate-smart agriculture happens
at multiple levels
Global: climate models,
international agreements,
finance
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Concept of “climatesmart villages”
• Approach where CCAFS in partnership with rural
communities and other stakeholders (NARES, NGOs,
local authorities…), tests & validates in an integrated
manner, several agricultural interventions
• Aims to boost farmers’ ability to adapt to climate
change, manage risks and build resilience.
• At the same time, the hope is to improve livelihoods
and incomes and, where possible, reduce greenhouse
gas emissions to ensure solutions are sustainable
How it works?
Climate-smart villages
Climatesmart
technologies
Index-based
insurance
Climate
information
services
Local
adaptation
plans
Scaling up
•
•
•
Policy
Private sector
Mainstream
successes via
major initiatives
• Learning sites
• Multiple partners
• Capacity building
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Climate-smart villages in Ghana (Doggoh), BF (Tibtenga),
Senegal (Kaffrine), Mali (Cinzana), Niger (Kampa zarma)
Concrete action at community level:
1. increase agricultural productivity and
farmers’ income;
2. strengthen the resilience of ecosystems
and livelihoods to climate change;
3. and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate
services
Designed
diversification
Climatesmart village
Weather
insurance
Partnership
-
NARS
Extension
NGOs
Universities
Developt. partners
Private sector
CBOs, Local leaders
Community
management
of resources
Capacity
building
Mitigation
/C seq
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Examples of
Successful CSA
2013
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NIGER
Bringing back the Sahel’s
‘underground forest’
o1980’s loss of trees led to severe soil
infertility, crop failure, famine.
o Land restored through farmer-managed
natural regeneration (FMNR).
oFMNR encourages farmers to regrow
indigenous trees.
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NIGER
Success at scale
o5 million ha of land restored, over 200
million trees re-established.
oFMNR spreading across southern Niger,
Burkina Faso, Mali and Senegal.
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NIGER
Benefits for food production,
adaptation and mitigation
o Food production:
additional half a million tonnes of grain per year.
improved food security of 2.5 million people.
yields of millet from 150 kg/ha to 500 kg/ha.
o Adaptation :
improved structure and fertility of the soil.
water more accessible.
o Mitigation:
sequestration of carbon in soil, tree roots and wood.
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WEST AFRICA
SAHEL
Water harvesting boosts
yields in the Sahel
o Sahel – Droughts common and farming
difficult with sparse rainfall.
o Changes in land management – stone
bunds and zai pits.
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WEST AFRICA SAHEL
Success at scale
o Contour bunds established on 200,000 to
300,000 ha.
o Yields double those on unimproved land.
o Tree cover and diversity increased.
o Groundwater levels rising.
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Benefits for food production,
adaptation and mitigation
WEST AFRICA
SAHEL
o
Food production:
 predicted that the improved land will produce enough to
feed 500,000 to 750,000 people.
 increased diversity of food, health benefits.
o
Adaptation:
 contour bunds able to cope with changing weather.
o
Mitigation:
 land management prevents further worsening of
soil quality.
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Strong government
support is crucial
 Policy support, e.g. secure land and resource tenure
 Strategies for scaling-up
CAADP e.g. Maputo commitments,
 Institutional frameworks
African Regional Strategy on
 Funding
Disaster Risk Reduction
Upfront costs often substantial
Brazil: US$ 250 million over two years
Morocco: over US$ 1 billion per annum
Vietnam: US$ 500 million in 2011
Some private finance e.g. supply chain
security, carbon markets, corporate
social responsibility
UNFCC e.g. Green Climate Fund,
Least Developed Countries Fund,
Adaptation Fund
Multi-lateral e.g. IFAD Adaptation for
Smallholder Agriculture Program, G8 Global
Agriculture & Food Security Program
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www.ccafs.cgiar.org;
[email protected]
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