Transcript Bot3404_11_week8.1_n.. - Ecological Evolution - E

Announcements
Urban Forestry project for one more week.
Turn in your writing assignments today and submit the
identifications of the other group's photos to Cici.
Discussion on readings on Thursday – the two short
Science articles about rice domestication.
Review examples from students
Urban Forestry project
Be organized!!!
Spend the extra minute to improve the
photo and digital photos are cheap!! Take
a lot and throw away a lot!
Is the plastic working??
October 28, 2011 – 7 PM – Allen Theatre
Conservation Biology
At a global scale, we are using
natural resources faster than
they are being renewed by
natural processes.
The Conservation Endgame
At a global scale, we are using
natural resources faster than
they are being renewed by
natural processes.
The Conservation Endgame
There is a global
imbalance between
consumption and
biodiversity.
The rich and developed
countries are driving this
‘natural resource debt’
through excessive and
pointless consumption.
The Conservation Endgame
How do we explain the importance of the natural world to people
who only know and understand a human urban environment?
Now, more people live in cities than on farms.
So, we have an imbalance between city and rural people.
The Conservation Endgame
Jared Diamond, a famous scientist who
has written several internationally bestselling books, presented several examples
of how societies choose to collapse or
choose to prosper in his book entitled,
“COLLAPSE”.
He hoped to discover what makes
societies succeed and fail, as they reach
the limits of their traditional use of
resources.
East Asian Monsoon
东亚季风
Fossil evidence of climate change and
rainfall patterns is highly correlated with the
rise and fall of civilizations in China.
Yancheva et al.
demonstrated that
sudden changes in
climate led to the
downfall of
civilizations on both
side of the Atlantic
Ocean.
Yancheva et al. Nature (2007)
The Conservation Endgame
Civilizations are most vulnerable to
climate changes when they are near
the natural limits.
If most of the population can barely
find enough water, a prolonged
drought can be disastrous.
Al Gore, recent Nobel Prize
winner, has warned about the
dangers of global climate change.
The Conservation Endgame
In Western Chess, the
player that captures the
other’s king wins.
Many books of strategy
have been written.
We can learn deep
strategy from these
simple games.
Chess has two distinct phases:
- the opening开局
- the endgame终局
The Conservation Endgame
If one player does not easily win,
the game will reach the 'endgame'.
The endgame:
Each player has only a few pieces left.
The pieces are balanced in power.

The situation can last for a long
time and can result in a ‘draw’,
where no player can win.
The endgame requires a radical shift in strategy:


the loss of a single piece can be fatal
each move has high impact and major consequences.
The Conservation Endgame
The conservation endgame is not a
match between equal competitors.
Human population and
consumption are still exploding.
Most people do not know
anything about natural resources.
We are obviously reaching the
limits of our ability to generate
wealth from traditional ways of
natural resource use.
We obviously need a radical
change in strategy and we must
actively manage these resources
What’s so special about Southeast Asia?
Myers et al. 2000
ALL of Southeast Asia comprises one huge biodiversity hotspot!!!
What’s so special about Southeast Asia?

Relatively few active scientists and high levels of endemism
Sodhi et al. 2004
Are protected areas enough?
The island of Sulawesi in
Indonesia is a good case study
for developing effective
strategies in the absence of
detailed biotic information.
Very complex geological setting
►Globally important ecoregion
►Biogeographic crossroads
►Highly endemic vertebrate fauna
►
Subject of Ecoregional Conservation
Assessment by the Nature
Conservancy
►
compiled 32 Landsat images
Digitized geological map
Digital elevation map
Complete collections database from the
National Herbarium of the Netherlands in
Leiden
Four week ground truthing survey of 17
locations across the island
Forest change analysis for five key sites
Remote sensing analysis to determine
forest condition

Sulawesi - A poorly known biodiversity hotspot
Defined by having both major
concentrations of species
richness and large numbers of
endemic species.
Given high priority for protection.
Remote sensing
research
32 separate satellite
images!
No automated
classification
algorithm would give
reliable results
across all images
Eventually, the entire
island was ‘handclassified’ using a
base map of
forest/non-forest,
visual inspection of
image, and
examination of the
supervised
classification results.
Top Twenty
Conservation Sites
Based upon total
cumulative ranks
•
A full range of
portfolio sites and
protected areas are
included in the top
twenty.
•
Additionally, the
ranking system can be
used at smaller
geographic scales to
identify conservation
‘frontlines’.
•
Cannon et al. 2007
Human population growth near PAs
In a careful
study of
population
change in the
buffer zone
around PAs,
found a
widespread
trend of
greater growth
in buffer
zones in
comparison to
rural areas in
general
Wittemyer et al 2008
Human population growth near PAs
Proportion of growth was substantial
and increased growth was correlated
with deforestation within 50km of PA.
Wittemyer et al 2008
Moth to the flame


Positive correlation between human population
in PA buffer zones and

Donor investment

PA staff density
Positive correlation between human population
in PA buffer zone and deforestation
Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation+ (REDD+)
REDD+:
will it be a good or bad thing for tropical countries?




The global carbon market could potentially
funnel billions of dollars into countries like
Indonesia.
These dollars buy the right to pollute given the
tropical country maintains its forests.
Corruption is wide and deep in many countries
and corporations.
Great potential for cheating and missed targets.
Conservation Reserve
Program by the USDA has
been a big succcess
Conservation Reserve
Program by the USDA has
been a big succcess
Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)




Over-production and marginal production sites
were leased by the government for fallow.
Erosion has been considerably reduced on
marginal lands.
Wildlife populations have rebounded.
Most of these lands are returning to pasture and
can provide good grazing. In this area, there is
a problem with increased woody plant growth,
which some see as negative.
Practical realities

Academic publication vs. practical action


Do we need more detailed models?

More spatially explicit and site specific models

Less grand generalizations
Are we looking for our car keys with an electron
microscope?

Many of the pressing conservation issues are obvious:

law enforcement,

less consumption,

breaking down the separation between ‘wild’ and ‘domestic’
The rule of law
Fundamentally, we need a new era of environmental accountability.

If current laws, both nationally and internationally, were strictly
enforced, the situation would already be much better


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Some form of tracking system for natural resources, e.g.
DNA fingerprints or isotopic composition of tissue
Remote sensing can help fight both illegal forest conversion
and the spread of forest fires
The increasing spread of democratic governments may help
fight indigenous cultures of corruption and nepotism.
Conservation realities
General conservation challenges

Limited money, energy, awareness, and expertise.

Simple ignorance of major patterns of biodiversity and ecology.

International conservation programs often suffer from apparent Alzheimer’s.
Local NGOs are often more effective.
General conservation strengths



Young, energetic, and concerned people can make a difference through
organization and outreach.
Even in the most corrupt governments, there are pockets of honesty. Find
them.
Forests are resilient and can suffer substantial damage without collapse.

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_public
ations/living_planet_report/living_planet_report_
graphics/lpi_interactive/