Transcript 세계 풍력시장 및 전망(BTM-WMU_2009_Final_PPP)

World Market Update 2009 Forecast 2010-2014
[출처: BTM Consult ApS, 2010 March]
2009년 풍력발전의 특징
 금융/경제 위기에도 불구하고 36GW의 풍력발전 설치를 기록
 세계 상위 10개 풍력 터빈 공급업체 중 3개의 중국기업이 강한 존재로 나타남
 중국은 13.75 GW 새로운 용량으로 세계 1위의 풍력발전 시장이 됨
 유럽에서는 풍력에너지 증가 기여를 위한 해상풍력단지 조성이 진행 중
 시장가치는 2010년 미화 750억 달러에서 2014년 1240억 달러로 증가할 것으로 전망
 기술: 5MW급 또는 그 이상 급인 3날개 풍력터빈이 상용화됨
기술: 직접구동 터빈은 현재 세계 풍력발전 용량의 14%를 차지하고 있음
 2010년에는 풍력발전이 세계 전력의 1.6%를 공급할 것으로 전망
 금년 예측치와 전망을 기준으로, 10년 후인 2019년 풍력발전은 세계 전체전력 소비의 8.4%를
차지할 것으로 전망
Page 1
World Market Update 2009
World Market Growth rates 2004-2009
Year:
Installed MW
2004
8,154
2005
11,542
2006
15,016
2007
19,791
2008
28,190
2009
38,103
Average growth - 5 years
Increase %
42%
30%
32%
42%
35%
36.1%
Cumulative MW
47,912
59,399
74,306
94,005
122,158
160,084
Increase %
24%
25%
27%
30%
31%
27.3%
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
The Top-10 list of suppliers 2009
VESTAS (DK)
GE WIND (US)
SINOVEL (PRC)
ENERCON (GE)
GOLDWIND (PRC)
GAMESA (ES)
DONGFANG (PRC)
SUZLON (IND)
SIEMENS (DK)
REPOWER (GE)
Others
Total
Accu.
MW
2008
34,939
18,220
2,148
16,576
2,589
16,679
1,290
7,250
8,949
3,597
19,407
131,644
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Supplied
MW
2009
4,766
4,741
3,510
3,221
2,727
2,546
2,475
2,421
2,265
1,297
7,033
37,002
Page 2
Share
2009
%
12.5%
12.4%
9.2%
8.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.5%
6.4%
5.9%
3.4%
18.5%
97%
Accu.
MW
2009
39,705
22,961
5,658
19,798
5,315
19,225
3,765
9,671
11,213
4,894
26,440
168,646
Share
accu.
%
24.8%
14.3%
3.5%
12.4%
3.3%
12.0%
2.4%
6.0%
7.0%
3.1%
16.5%
105%
World Market Update 2009
The 15 largest wind farm operator
Name of wind farm operator
1. Iberdrola Renovables (ES)
2. NextEra Energy Resources (US)
3. Acciona Energy (ES)
4. EDP Renovaveis (P)
5. China Longyuan (CN)
6. Datang Corporation (CN)
7. E.ON Climate and Renewables (GE)
8. EDF Energies Nouvelles (FR)
9. Invenergy (US)
10. Eurus Energy Holding (JP)
11. Infigen Energy (formerly BBW, AUS)
12. RWE Innogy (GE)
13. Huaneng New Energy (CN)
14. Enel (IT)
15. GDF Suez (FR)
Total of the shown companies
Cumulative MW Cumulative MW Cumulative MW
capacity by end capacity by end capacity by end
of 2007
of 2008
of 2009
7,362
8,960
10,350
5,077
6,374
7,544
3,824
4,566
6,230
3,639
5,052
6,227
1,620
2,924
4,842
1,008
2,154
3,023
855
1,890
2,873
1,218
2,031
2,650
887
1,723
2,018
1,385
1,722
1,903
1,859
1,530
1,739
489
639
1,568
129
402
1,550
857
1,237
1,510
690
1,054
1,492
30,899
42,258
55,519
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Forecast 2010-2014
(incl. Offshore)
Cumulative
installed capacity
(MW) by end of
2014
Installed capacity
between
20102014
Installed capacity
(MW) in 2009
Cumulative
installed capacity
(MW) by end of
2009
Forecast for wind power development 2010-2014 (Global)
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sum
Accu.
Total Americas
40,351
11,433
10,000
12,600
18,400
18,900
22,100
82,000
122,351
Total Europe
76,553
10,738
13,305
16,000
18,025
20,500
21,250
89,080
165,633
Total South & East Asia
37,147
14,991
16,700
17,850
19,600
21,300
23,100
98,550
135,697
4,873
1,161
620
321
1,200
825
1,500
1,100
1,850
1,600
2,350
2,350
2,450
2,750
9,350
8,625
14,223
9,786
38,103
42,030
49,050
59,475
65,400
Total OECD-Pacific
Total other areas
Total MW new capacity every
year:
Accu. capacity (MW)
160,084
71,650 287,605 447,689
202,114 251,164 310,639 376,039 447,689
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Page 3
World Market Update 2009
Electricity from Wind Power
Country/Region
USA
Germany
Spain
P.R. China1)
India
Italy
France
United Kingdom
Denmark
Portugal
Canada
The Netherlands
Japan
Australia
Greece
Sweden
Austria
Rest of World
Total
Cumulative
MW - end
2009
35,159
25,813
18,784
25,853
10,827
4,845
4,775
4,340
3,408
3,474
3,321
2,226
2,208
1,886
1,198
1,537
997
10,431
160,084
Est. average
full load hours
Est. average
capacity factor
2,300
1,813
2,200
1,800
1,800
2,000
2,100
2,628
2,250
2,200
2,278
2,100
2,100
2,500
2,500
2,100
1,794
2,000
(avg. 2,073)
26.3%
20.7%
25.1%
20.5%
20.5%
22.8%
24.0%
30.0%
25.7%
25.1%
26.0%
24.0%
24.0%
28.5%
28.5%
24.0%
20.5%
22.8%
(avg. 23.7%)
Est. electricity
production in
2010 TWh
80.87
46.80
41.32
46.54
19.49
9.69
10.03
11.40
7.67
7.64
7.57
4.68
4.64
4.72
2.99
3.23
1.79
20.86
331.91
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Energy unit: 1 Tera Watt Hour (TWh) = 1 Billion kWh
Page 4
World Market Update 2009
National commitments on GHG reduction targets for Annex I countries
National commitments on GHG reduction targets
from Appendix I (Part I)
Countries
Country/R
egion
Australia
Reduction in %
by year 2020
- 5% up to -15 %
to -25 %
Base
year
2000
Belarus
- 5 % to - 10 %
1990
Canada
-17 %
2005
Croatia
-5%
1990
EU
Member
States
(27
countries)
Iceland
- 20 % or -30 %
- 30 %
1990
1990
Kazakhstan
- 15 %
1992
Comments
The - 25 % is conditional
to a strong global deal
on a "450 ppm - limit"
or lower. The - 5 % is
unconditionally.
Conditioned by access
to the Kyoto Protocols
flexible mechanisms.
To be aligned with the
US commitment
Temporary - to be
increased when the
country becomes
member of EU
The 20 % target is
already decided before
the COP-15 event. If
international progress
before 2012 (Kyoto
expires) a 30 %
reduction may be
decided
Joining the European
condition of progress
before 2012
Liechtenstein
- 20 %
1990
Monaco
- 30 %
1990
New Zealand
-10 to 20 %
Norway
- 30 to 40%
1990
Russian
Federation
-15 to 25 %
1990
Switzerland
-20 % / 30 %
1990
- 17 %
2005
United States
of America
Conditioned to "an agreement
where other developed countries
participate according to their
respective capabilities"
Conditioned to ".. if there is a
comprehensive global agreement
made" … " there is a full recourse
to a broad and efficient
international carbon market"
The 40 % reduction is subject to
an international comprehensive
agreement, which includes the 2
degrees target to be met.
A special condition : "there is an
effective set of rules for land use,
land-use change an forestry"
The 30 % reduction is subject to a
comprehensive agreement for the
period beyond 2012 (In line with
the EU Member States'
commitment.)
In conformity with anticipated US
energy and climate legislation
(still pending by March 2010).
The mentioned legislation calls
for 30 % reduction by 2025 and
42 % by 2030 and finally 83 % by
2050
Source: UNFCCC. Int - web-site list as of 9 March 2010
Note: Three nations - the US, Canada and Australia - use
another base year for their respective reduction targets,
which makes them not directly comparable percentage wise.
Page 5
World Market Update 2009