Diets & Behaviour Change How do people eat today?

Sue Dibb

[email protected]

Twitter: @Eating_Better

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Data sources & comparisons

Food supply data (eg FAO stats).

Household purchase figures (eg Defra Family Food Survey) Food eaten outside home? Historically not included (reliably post 2001-02) Consumption data (eg National Diet & Nutrition Survey). Under-reporting? Raw weight/cooked weight/disaggregation. Waste. How up-to-date/responsive Consumer research eg Kantar Worldpanel: Responsive/accurate/not public data Qualitative data – what people think they consume (Ipsos Mori, YouGov) Market data (value/volume?)

Definitions

• • • • • Red meat = beef, veal, lamb, mutton, pork, goat (some attempts to redefine pork as white meat) White meat = poultry Processed meat includes ham, bacon, pastrami, salami, sausages, luncheon meats etc Ruminants (cattle & sheep) monogastrics (pigs & chickens) Carcase meat (raw) distinct from processed meat products

What type of meat are we eating

• 40% poultry (mainly chicken) • 31% pig meat • 23% beef and veal • 6% lamb and mutton (Eblex 2011) UK not self sufficient in meat - Import 42% of domestic demand (58% pig meat)

In what form?

Dairy consumption

Liquid milk Yog/fromage frais Cheese Butter 80% 10% 6% 2% • Dairy Deserts (not frozen) 2% Cream Defra: Family Food 2012 1%

Meat consumption around the world

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985

Year

1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Africa China India UK USA Global meat consumption has almost doubled in the last 50 years from 63g (person/day) in 1961 to 115g (person/day) in 2009 (FAOSTAT 2013).

Western Europe World

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Protein supply in the UK Year

Meat Offals Milk - Excluding Butter Fish, Seafood Eggs Vegetal Products

Gender differences

• Men 226g/day Women 163g/day (meat & meat products) (NDNS, DH, 2011) • 6 out of 10 men and 4 out of 10 women exceed Gov advice to consume no more than 70g red & processed meat/day (Westland & Crawley, Healthy & Sustainable Diets in the Early Years 2012)

Trends

• • Meat: Family Food Survey: Overall consumption reportedly fairly constant (dating back to 1974). ?Food eaten outside home • 4 fold increase in take away consumption since mid-70s

Significant changes in types of meat

– Significant increase in poultry 5 fold increase from 1961 – Long term trend: less beef (+BSE) & lamb – Reduction in carcase meat purchased, offal, corned beef – More processed meat products (sausage rolls, pasties, burgers, bacon, ham) – More ready meals/convenience foods. •

Dairy consumption

– long term downward trend in purchases of whole milk (– 29% 2009 – 12) – Increase in skimmed milk (+4.6%) Semi-skimmed/skimmed milk sales stable last ten years (overtook whole milk in 1990s) – Cream (+8.3%)

Impacts of recession

• • • • • • Effect of recession different: not just less money to spend but also increases in food prices. (IFS) Retail price of meat increased 35% 2007 – 2013 (ONS) People spending less and trading down (cheaper calories) (Kantar World Panel) On average, UK households purchased 4.7 per cent less food in 2012 than in 2007 while spending 17 per cent more. Saved 5.6% by trading down to cheaper products (Defra, Family Food 2012) Lowest income group spent 22% more on food, purchased 5.7% less but only saved 1% by trading down.

In 2010 poorest 10% of consumers brought 26% less fresh meat than in 2007 (Defra) and more frozen and processed foods (also fewer fruit and vegetables)

Impact of Horsemeat Scandal 2013?

• • • • • You Gov survey for Eating Better (Sept 13) 25% said they were eating less meat than a year ago with ready meals & processed meats most likely off the menu.

Grocer survey (Dec 13) 69% said didn’t have an impact on food purchasing Betrayal of trust (53%) Food system not robust (48%) Frozen burgers/ready meals were rightly identified as affected Local butchers did well out of it

Cutting back & trading down 2013

• • • • 1/3rd less likely to buy organic, or buy meat in premium supermarkets 25% more likely to buy British meat Economic climate + horsemeat = confusing picture Trading down + trend to less processed meat + avoiding cheaper meat ranges

Attitudes: increase in sales of ethical produce

Ethical Consumer Markets Report (ECR), 2012, The Co-operative Group

Attitudes to meat

• • • • • • • Defra (2011) majority of people say open to changing their diet to help the environment. 63% willing to cut down on red meat; 45% dairy; 76% confectionery.

Eating Better (2013) third willing to consider eating less meat, around 50% willing to pay more for ‘better’ meat (eg taste, healthier, higher animal welfare, better returns for farmers) – not just higher social grade groups Young people more likely to say don’t eat any meat (1 in 6) FSA (2012) safety of meat from outside UK of most concern WRAP: 13% of meat is wasted (household) We like it (50% said it was favourite part of their meal) Cultural significance (meat & 2 veg)

What don’t we know

• • • • • • Detailed, timely & comparable consumption figures Consumption data doesn’t distinguish how meat is produced What dishes people eat? How cooked/served?

No quantitative dietary model that describes how to achieve a diet that is both healthy & sustainable (how much meat/of what type/for different consumers) Relevant to individual behaviour – how much do I eat?

Future trends?