Transcript TSS Forum 8 March 2013 - The Sustainability Society

TSS Forum 8 March 2013
Foresighting
Ron McDowall
2013
Part 1
Foresighting
Part 2
Backcasting
Part 3
Roadmapping
2013
Part 1- Foresighting
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Futures
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Types of Potential futures
• There are four types of potential futures these are;
• Possible
• Plausible
• Probable
• Preferable
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Possible futures.
• This class of futures includes all the kinds of futures we can
possibly imagine -those which "might happen" - no matter
how far-fetched, unlikely or "way out". They might, as a
result, involve knowledge which we do not yet possess (the
"warp drive" of Star Trek is a good example), or might also
involve transgressions of currently-accepted physical laws
or principles.
• I tend to characterise these futures as being reliant on the
existence of some future knowledge (ie knowledge we do
not yet possess) in order to come about.
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Plausible futures.
• This class of futures encompasses those futures which "could
happen" (ie they are not excluded) according to our current
knowledge (as opposed to future knowledge) of how things
work. They stem from our current understanding of physical
laws, processes, causation, systems of human interaction, etc.
This is clearly a smaller subset of futures than the possible.
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Probable futures.
• This class of futures contains those which are considered
"likely to happen", and stem in part from the continuance of
current trends. Some probably futures are considered more
likely than others; the one considered most likely is often called
"business-as-usual".
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• The three classes of futures previously described
are all largely concerned with informational or
cognitive knowledge.
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Preferable futures
• The fourth class, Preferable futures is, by contrast, concerned
with what we "want to" happen; in other words, these futures
are largely emotional rather than cognitive.
• They derive from value judgments, and are more overtly
subjective than the previous three classes. Because values
differ so markedly between people, this class of futures is quite
varied. Preferable (or preferred) futures can lie in any of the
previous three classes.
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Foresighting the moon landing
• The Apollo Moon Landing, for example, was a preferred future of
President Kennedy which began as merely possible but not yet
plausible (from the perspective of 1961) because the knowledge
did not yet exist at that time to achieve the goal. The requisite
knowledge as created during the decade of the 1960s until the idea
of actually achieving the landing in the desired timeframe moved
into the realm of the plausible, then the probable, and was finally
actualised as reality in 1969. It is now, of course, a key event in
human history. This example indicates an important point regarding
thinking about futures: the judgment of what is possible, plausible
and probable (and perhaps even preferable) depends on being
"situated in time", and the assessments may change as time goes
on. Preferable futures may be so desirable that we consciously
seek to move them out of the realm of the merely possible and into
the realm of the distinctly plausible by actively creating the
knowledge needed to bring them about as reality. It is this ability to
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envision and then move towards desirable preferred futures (or to
Overview of Foresight methods
Why use formal methods
• Make the foresight process more systematic
• Increase transparency of processes
• Aid creativity
• Constitute space for communication and interaction
• Aid visualisation of possible futures
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Different types of foresighting
• Exploratory (outward bound) vs. Normative (inward bound)
approaches
• Quantitative vs. Qualitative approaches
• Methods for different stages / tasks in foresight
• Methods for fostering Creativity, Evidence, Interaction, Expertise
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Exploratory methods (Outward Bound)
Exploratory methods essentially begin from the present, and see
where events and trends might take us
They begin with the present as the starting point, and move
forward to the future, either on the basis of extrapolating past
trends or causal dynamics, or else by asking “what if?” questions
about the implications of possible developments or events that
may lie outside of these familiar trends.
Among exploratory tools there are trend, impact, and cross-impact
analyses, conventional delphi, and some applications of models eg
concurrence etc.
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Normative methods (Inward bound)
• Normative methods ask what trends and events would take us
to a particular future or futures.
• They start with a preliminary view of a preferable (often a
desirable) future or set of futures that are of particular interest.
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Work back
• Then work backwards to see if and how these futures
might or might not grow out of the present – how they
might be achieved, or avoided, given available constraints,
resource and technologies.
• A fairly recent development is the use of “success
scenarios” and “aspirational scenario workshops”, where
participants try to establish a shared vision of a future that
is both desirable and credible, and to identify the ways in
which this might be achieved.
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Scenarios as a method in foresighting
• Scenarios often used in foresighting (Scenario mapping,
multiple scenario analysis etc.)
• Other methods (more common less scientific)
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Brainstorming
Causal Layered Analysis
Chaos theory
Cross impact analysis
Decision modeling
Environmental scanning
Expert panel (I tend to use this method, eg Auckland Council)
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Methods - multiple scenarios
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“Genius” forecasts
Expert Groups, deskwork,
Modeling tools like simulation, cross-impact
Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints
Setting up Workshops.........
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Black rooms
• No agenda
• No connection to present production
• Outside experts involved
• Time and resource intensity
• Leave outside the door all previous knowledge and
understanding
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Scenario Workshops in Foresight key
•Develop “narratives” for wider consumption and use in raising
awareness, helping planning, etc.
•Exchange and share expertise, fusing different types of
knowledge
•Vision-building process as way of transcending narrow
perspectives and routine appraisals of future
•Creating awareness of participant capabilities, expectations,
likely behaviour
•Shared understanding useful for future work in Foresight or
acting on results
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Summing Up
• Many different types of workshop possible, with or
without computers (though expect more developments
here)
• Face to face meetings particularly good for detailed
discussion, vision-building, and networking... But more
sustained interaction may be needed to explore complex
domains and relate together expert knowledge.
• Not magic or guru-driven: but does take planning.
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Auckland Council have been foresighting 2040 (Auckland Plan for
the livable city)
“Standing in the future and looking back”
Example ; Waste
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Waste in 2040 Auckland City Livable city plan “Zero
Waste”
• Foresight 2040 outcome : Waste A Future system state
• Auckland has a circular approach to resources, making the
concept of waste obsolete, thus providing an internationally
competitive advantage in a resource constrained global
economy. All goods sold in Auckland have take-back policies,
product stewardship and implied producer and consumer
responsibilities. Used products and materials are reengineered
for multiple reuses or reduced to raw materials for manufacturing
other products. The eco-efficiency of materials has on average
improved by a factor of 10, especially involving dematerialisation
design. Advanced materials enable resource hyper-efficiency in
key sectors, e.g. lightweight transport and renewable energy.
Greenhouse gas emissions, energy and water use are no longer
constraints on the materials industry.
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Part 2 Backcasting
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Overview
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Defines a desirable future and then works backwards to
identify major events and decisions that generated the future,
to allow organisations to consider what actions, policies and
programs are needed today that will connect the future to the
present.
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Backcasting reminds participants that the future is not linear,
and can have many alternative outcomes depending of
decisions made and the impact of external events on the
organisation.
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Benefits of backcasting
• Avoids extrapolation of present events
• Quick and agile
• Accessible and engaging
• Creative
• Lightweight relatively easy to achieve
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Disadvantages of backcasting
• Assumes that a desirable future will occur
• May need constant updating
• Can be resource intensive and time consuming
• No defined conceptual framework
• Best for skilled practitioners.
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Steps to complete backcasting
• Set time line
• Define the present state
• Define the desirable future
• Develop sequence of backward steps to achieve desirable
future and set interventions
• Assess opportunities and risks
• Identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the
present
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Backcasting A City’s foresighted vision.(Energy)
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Part 3 Roadmapping
Many different representations of
roadmaps.
Linear, circular etc.
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