Transcript Heuristics: Lupia

Political Psychology:
Citizen Behaviors and Opinions
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
Program

Citizens’ political information

The heuristics model
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The online model
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The belief-sampling model
Citizens’ political information
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
Theoretical starting point
 Traditional
democratic theory
asserts that a strong and
healthy democracy requires
an alert, attentive, informed,
and reactive electorate.
Empirical reality
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Most citizens are generally
little informed about politics.
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However, they are not
completely ignorant nor
severely misinformed.
Debates in the literature
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The low level of information
is undeniable.

Arguments rage over the
capacity of citizens to
develop quality opinions.
The heuristics model
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
The heuristics model

Citizens use affective and cognitive
shortcuts that allow them to simplify
political choices and to develop
reasonable opinions.
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Shortcuts are efficient because they
require little information and generate
reliable solutions to complex dilemmas.
Heterogeneity

The type of heuristics used varies by
the level of political sophistication.

The reliance on affect is more likely
among less sophisticated people.

The reliance on cognition is more
likely among more sophisticated
people.
Heterogeneity
Heuristics: Sniderman,
Brody & Tetlock
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‘likability’
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‘availability’

‘desert’
Heuristics: Lupia

California, 1988
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Referendum on the reform of
the auto-insurance system
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5 technical and complex
proposals
Heuristics: Lupia

Informational shortcut:
People who know the identity
of the referendum proposals’
sponsors should make the
right choices.
Heuristics: Lupia
Weaknesses of
the heuristics model
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
Do heuristics lead to the
right choices?

partisan labels

‘availability’ (SBT)
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‘likability’ (SBT)
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‘cue’ (Lupia)
Do heuristics lead to the
right choices?
Politics :
requires responses to difficult
questions,
 does not make the relevant
information easily accessible,
 does not encourage reflection and
deliberation,
 and rarely offers feedback.

Do heuristics lead to the
right choices?
Biases in political judgments :
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Reliance on stereotypes
Excess of confidence
Resistance to correction
Influence of easy arguments
Biased interpretation of messages
Biased interpretation of messages
Conclusion of
Kuklinski and Quirk

Citizens are not very
informed, but they also
tend to bias and errors
when they use this little
amount of information.
Conclusion of
Kuklinski and Quirk

Inferences based on long-term
factors will tend to work well.

Inferences based on short-term
factors will tend to be more
problematic.
The online model
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
The online model

When the goal is to form an impression,
one evaluates information when it is
encountered and integrates it into a
rolling judgment.

The information that contributed to the
judgment is quickly forgotten.

When an opinion is expressed, it is this
judgment that is recalled.

The judgment is constantly updated.
The online model
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Experiment :
– 2 fictitious candidates
– Profile of their issue positions
– Measures of impressions
– Time delay
– Measures of impressions & recall
The online model
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Results :
– Failing recall of information
– Recall of information degrades rapidly
– Recall of impressions remains stable
– Recall weakly related to impressions
– Messages more related to impressions
The online model
The online model
The online model
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Criticisms :
– Plausible? Convincing?
– Existing impressions or reactions to
party identification?
– What is the measure of messages?
– Actual vote models versus authors’
views versus authors’ model?
The belief-sampling model
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
Observations
 There
is a lot of instability in opinions
over time.
 There
is a lot of instability in opinions
related to variations in questionnaire
construction.
 People
express opinions about
fictional issues and fictional persons.
The belief-sampling model
 Citizens
do not possess preexisting
opinions.
 They
hold a mix of partially coherent
considerations.
 When
asked, they survey a sample
of the most salient considerations,
and chose a response on the spot.
The belief-sampling model
 Consideration
: reason to
support one side of an issue
 Axiom
1 : ambivalence
 Axiom
2 : response
 Axiom
3 : accessibility
Results
 Signs
of ambivalence among
considerations (axiom 1).
 Correlation
between the balance of
considerations and choice (axiom 2).
 More
interest and engagement leads
to more accessible considerations
(axiom 3).
Explanations of the
observations
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Instability of opinions
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Questionnaire effects

Opinions on fictional issues
and fictional people
Implications
 People
don’t have real opinions.
 Opinion
change is simply a
modification of the mix of
accessible considerations.
 Persuasion
comes from the
manipulation of salient
considerations.
Conclusion
Lecture 5
Cognition 1: Three models of
opinion formation
Conclusion

Which model is right ... ?
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Heterogeneity ... ?