Transcript Wind Integration Costs 风电并网成本

Kevin Porter 凯文 波特
Exeter Associates 公司
Energy Foundation Wind Integration Meeting
并网经验介绍会
能源基金会
July 2, 2010
Purpose of Presentation
介绍会的目的
• Determine whether there is interest
in learning more about how to do a
wind integration study.
• 了解大家是否有兴趣进一步学习开
展风电并网问题研究的研究方法。
• Determine whether there is interest
in holding a workshop on wind
integration study methods in
Beijing in December.
• 了解是否需要于今年12月在北京再
组织一个风电并网研究方法介绍会
• Consider interest in conducting a
wind integration study in China.
• 考虑一下在中国开展风电并网研究
的意义
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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Overview of
U.S. Wind Integration Studies
美国风电并网研究概况
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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Overview of
U.S. Wind Integration Studies
美国风电并网研究概况
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Several utilities, states and regional transmission
organization have conducted wind integration
studies, generally before large-scale wind
development has occurred
Over a dozen such wind integration studies since
the late 1990s, and more are planned
Actual operating experience has been limited,
therefore studies have been prospective –
modeling a potential future power system with
certain amounts of wind generation
Studies focused on reliability, operational and
economic impacts of higher levels of wind
penetration
Every U.S. wind integration study is different, but
some common themes are emerging
Studies have evolved from whether it is possible to
incorporate wind to how and at what estimated
cost
As experience is gained, studies are starting to
focus on potential solutions to integrating higher
levels of wind generation
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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总的来说，在大规模并网实际发生之前，
美国的一些电力公司、州及区域输电组织
已经开展了风电并网问题的研究。
上世纪90年代至今这样的研究做了有十几
个，目前计划开展更多此类研究。
由于实际运行经验的局限，前瞻性研究变
得更为重要---模拟出接入一定规模风电情
景下的未来的电力系统
研究基本聚焦在大规模接入风电后系统的
可靠性问题、运行影响和经济影响。
每个研究都有所区别，但更多的共同关注
问题已经开始显现。
研究的重心已经从原来研究是否可能接入
这么多风电，转为研究如何以及在多大经
济代价下接入这些风电。
由于已经有了一些经验基础，研究重点已
经开始集中在去寻找接入更高比例风电的
潜在解决办法。
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Integration Cost Estimates
并网成本估算
• Wind integration studies have found cost
will generally be under $5.00/MWh for
wind capacity penetrations up to 20%;
• Most of these costs are from unit
commitment;
• Pacific Northwest wind studies have
tended to show costs up to $10/MWh –
 No sub-hourly scheduling or markets
 Greater reliance on regulation versus
spinning or non-spinning reserves
 Tends to increase costs
• U.S. has more flexible power system than
China
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 研究发现，风电接入比例在20%左右或
以下的情况下，并网成本一般在每千
度电5美元左右（0.5美分/千瓦时，即
每度电人民币3分4厘左右）。
• 机组组合成本占这些成本的大部分；
• “西北太平洋”的研究曾给出一个接
近每千度电10美元左右的并网成本（1
美分/千瓦时，即每度电人民币6分8厘
左右）–
 没有小时内调度或相应市场
 更多地依赖调节而非旋转备用或非
旋转备用
 倾向于提高成本
• 美国的灵活性电源多于中国
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Wind Integration Costs
Dependent on Several Factors
影响风电并网成本的几个因素
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Size of the balancing area
 Large balancing area makes it easier to
integrate wind, as there will be a deeper stock
of generation to draw from
Subhourly markets access the flexibility inherent in
many conventional generators and reduces reliance
on regulation in following wind’s variability
Resource mix
 A resource mix with more flexibility in ramping
up and down and operating at different
dispatch points will make wind integration
easier
Depth and type of ancillary services
 A well-functioning and deep market for
ancillary services (present in most regional
transmission organizations) will make it easier
and less expensive to integrate wind
The geographic concentration of wind projects
 Greater spatial diversity of wind projects can
lessen the variability in wind output and lower
wind integration costs
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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平衡区域的大小
 大平衡区接入风电更容易，因为可以
利用发电容量大的优势
时间间隔小于1小时的电力市场可以利用常
规电源的灵活性，减少对调节风电波动的
依赖。
• 资源组合
 资源组合具有更好的爬坡（上下）灵
活性，可以根据不同的调度要求运
行，从而减少风电接入的难度。
• 辅助服务的深度和类型
 完善、繁荣的辅助服务市场(多数由区
域输电组织提供) 可以减少风电接入的
难度和成本
风电项目地理分布的密集度
 风电项目在空间上的分散式分布可以
减少风电的出力波动并降低并网成本
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Key Results from Major Wind Integration Cost Studies
主要风电并网成本研究的主要结论
Integration Cost ($/MWh)
并网成本(美元$/千度电)
Wind Capacity
Penetration
.
风电装机容量
Regulation
Load Following
Unit Commit
Gas Supply
研究
Xcel-UWIG
整体占比
3.5%
调节
0
负荷跟踪
0.41
机组组合
1.44
天然气供应
Na
2003
We Energies
29%
1.02
0.15
1.75
Na
2.92
2004
Xcel-MNDOC
15%
0.23
na
4.37
Na
4.60
2005
PacifiCorp-2004
11%
0
1.48
3.16
Na
4.64
2006
Calif. (multi-year)*
4%
0.45
trace
trace
na
0.45
2006
Xcel-PSCo
15%
0.20
na
3.32
1.45
4.97
2006
MN-MISO*
31%
na
na
na
na
4.41
2007
Puget Sound Energy
12%
na
na
na
na
6.94
2007
Pub. Service
15%
0.37
2.65
1.06
na
4.08
2007
Avista Utilities
30%
1.43
4.40
3.00
na
8.84
2007
Idaho Power
20%
na
na
na
na
7.92
2007
PacifiCorp-2007
18%
na
1.10
4.00
na
5.10
2008
Xcel-PSCo*
Date
Study
时间
2003
TOTAL
总计
1.85
20%
na
na
na
na
8.56
2009
Bonneville
(BPA)+
36%
0.22
1.14
na
na
5.70
2009
PacifiCorp-2009++
22%
na
na
na
na
11.85
2009
Portland Gen. Elect.
27%
na
na
na
na
11.75
2010
EWITS+++
48%
na
na
1.61
na
4.54
2010
Nebraska
63%
na
na
na
na
1.75
* See notes from 2008 Wind Technologies Report详见2008风电技术报告注解
+ Costs in $/MWh assume 31% capacity factor. The aside from regulation and following reserves, the cost of BPA’s imbalance reserves are $4.33/MWh.
++ This integration cost assumes a $45/ton CO2 tax. With a lower CO2 tax of $/ton, the integration cost decreases to $9.96/MWh
+++ Unit commitment cost is listed in EWITS as the cost of day-ahead wind forecast error, remaining integration costs are for shorter term reserves
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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Arizona Public Service
$12
Avista Utilities
Pacificorp-2009 at
$8/tonCO2 instead
of $45/tonCO2
BPA
California RPS
Integration Cost ($/MWh)
$10
EWITS
Idaho Power
MN-MISO
$8
Nebraska with alternative
'proxy resource'
assumptions
Nebraska
Pacificorp-2004
$6
Pacificorp-2007
Pacificorp-2009
Portland Gen. Elect.
$4
Puget Sound Energy
We Energies
$2
Xcel-MNDOC
Xcel-PSCo-2006
Xcel-PSCo-2008
$0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Xcel-UWIG
Wind Penetration (Capacity Basis)
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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Solutions: Implement
a Wind Forecasting System
解决办法：应用风电预测系统
•
In general, wind forecasting is vital once
wind penetrations by energy reaches 10%
 Lower if balancing area is small or if
resource mix is not overly flexible
•
Although wind forecasting is not perfect,
today’s state-of-the-art wind forecasts will
be helpful to grid operators
 Potential large savings in unit
commitment and fuel consumption costs
 Promise for future performance
improvements in wind forecasting
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Several grid operators in the United States
are implementing wind forecasting
Evolution towards central wind forecasting
and away from decentralized wind
forecasting
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 一般来讲，一旦风电在电力供应中上
到10%，预测就变得尤为重要
 平衡区面积不大或资源组合不是特别
灵活的情况下，即便风电比重低于
10%，预测的作用也非常关键
• 尽管风电预测还不能尽善尽美，当前
的风电预测技术对电网运营商也是非
常有帮助的
 有希望节约大笔的机组组合和燃料消
耗成本
 未来提高风电预测水平的承诺
• 美国几家电网运营商正在进行风电预
测
• 风电预测的趋势正在由分散式预测向
集中式预测发展演变。
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Western Wind and Solar Integration
Study (2010)
西部风电及太阳能并网研究(2010)
• “Using state-of-the-art wind and solar
forecasts and unit commitment is
essential and would reduce annual
WECC operating costs by up to $5
billion ($4 billion in 2009 $) or $1220/MWh ($10-17/MWh in 2009$) of
renewable energy, compared to
ignoring renewables in the unit
commitment process.”
• “Perfect forecasts would reduce annual
costs by another $500 million ($425
million in 2009 $) or $1-2/MWh ($0.91.7/MWh in 2009 $) of renewable
energy,
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 运用当前最先进的风电和太阳能预测
技术以及机组组合非常必要；与忽视
可再生能源电力在机组组合里的作用
相比，充分运用这些，可以为WECC
每年减少多达50亿美元的运行成本
（2009年是40亿），或者，帮助可
再生能源减少一定的单位发电成本：
每千度电可减少12到20美元的成本
（2009年实际每千度电减少10到17
美元的单位发电成本）
• “完美的预测还能把全年运行成本再
减少5亿美元（2009年是4.25亿），
或，帮助可再生能源再减少单位发电
成本：每千度电可再减少1到2美元
的成本（2009年再减少0.9到1.7美
元）
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Solutions: Develop
More Flexible Electricity Markets
解决方案：建设更灵活的电力市场
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Operational flexibility valuable to operators but of
little value to power suppliers unless they are
somehow compensated
Market and policy changes will likely be necessary
 Expanding ancillary service markets
 Incentives for greater generator flexibility
(existing and new plants)
 Changes to market requirements,(e.g., load
following is not a compensated ancillary
service)
Make changes to accommodate wind ramps,
which more closely resemble large load ramps
 More closely aligned with 10-30 minute nonspinning and supplemental reserves; current
rules require these to be in-service for 1-2
hours when wind ramps can occur over
several hours
 Forces operators to use more expensive
regulation service instead
Multiple ways to do this, depending on electricity
system structure
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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灵活运行对电网运营商来讲很有价值，但
是对电力供应商来讲却不是这样，除非可
以在一定程度上给他们补偿
市场和政策变化很可能无法避免
扩展辅助服务市场
鼓励发电商加强灵活运行的激励机制
(新、老电厂)
调整市场要求/标准,(比如负荷跟踪不作为
付费辅助服务)
做出调整以适应风电爬坡特性（很类似大
型线性负荷）
与10-30分钟非旋转备用和补充电源更紧
密地配合；现行规定是当风电爬坡可能持
续几小时的情况可以开动使用这些备用设
施1-2小时
要求运行商采用其他更昂贵的调节服务
实现目标的方法有很多，能采用哪些方法
取决于电力系统的结构
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Solutions: Operate
Over Larger Market Operation Areas
解决办法：扩大市场运行区域
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There are about 140 balancing areas in the
U.S. with wide variations in size, generation
resources, and load
Each must balance generation and load
within its area
Larger balancing areas have more access to
generating resources to provide ancillary
services
Larger balancing areas can also take
advantage of the geographic diversity of
wind resources, helping to smooth wind
variability
ISOs and RTOs naturally capture the
benefits of large balancing areas
Smaller areas can gain some of those
benefits through sharing agreements such
as the ACE Diversity Interchange that pools
area control error among utilities in the
western U.S.
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 美国有140个左右的平衡区，大小、
电源结构和负荷情况各不相同
• 每个平衡区都必须平衡本区域内的发
电运行和负荷
• 大平衡区有更多的电源资源可供调配
以提供更好的辅助服务
• 大平衡区可以利用地理跨度大的优势，
削弱风资源变化的影响，平滑风电出
力波动
• ISOs和RTOs 有大平衡区的先天优势
• 小平衡区也可以通过分享协议，如
“ACE一体化交换”，扩展平衡区域，
在美国西部的电力公司间更大范围地
调度。
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Less than
1/3 of
regulation
is
necessary
if subhourly
scheduling
is utilizied
如果应用
小时内调
度，风电
波动的调
节需求只
有不到原
来的三分
之一
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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Wind Integration Costs Lower
in Larger Balancing Areas
大平衡区的风电并网成本更低
Date
时间
Study
研究单位
ISO/ Wind
RTO Level
风电占比
Integratio
n Cost
并网成本
($/MWh)
Energy Market
Interval
能源市场时间频度
March
2005
NYISO
ISO/
RTO
10%
Very Low
5 minute
December
2006
Minnesota ISO/
/MISO
RTO
31%
$4.41
5 minute
March
2007
Avista
No
30%
$8.84
1 hour
March
2007
Idaho
Power
No
30%
$7.92
1 hour
Summary
总结
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Wind contributes about 1-2% of total U.S.
electricity generation as of 2008
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A number of utilities are adding significant
amounts of wind capacity
Over a dozen wind integration studies have been
conducted to assess the technical ability and
feasibility to incorporate wind energy
In general, studies have progressed from “can it be
done” to “how and at what cost”
The studies have found that large interconnected
power systems can accommodate high levels of
variable energy by:
 Implementing a wind forecasting system
 Acquiring flexible generating resources
 Instituting new operating strategies for
minimum load hours and other high risk
periods; and
 Creating larger balancing areas, new market
rules, and grid codes
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Exeter Associates, Inc.
截止2008年，美国的风电占整体电力供
应的1-2%左右
很多电力公司新增大量的风电装机
•
开展了十来个风电并网研究，评估接入风
电的技术能力和可行性
•
总的来讲，研究的内容已经从“能不能”
发展到“怎么做、多大代价做”
•
研究表明，通过以下办法，大规模互联电
网能够接纳较多的间歇式电源:
 应用风电预测系统
 利用灵活性电源
 针对负荷低谷和其他高风险时段制定
新的运行办法
 创造大平衡区，新市场规则和并网规
定
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Doing a Wind Integration Study
进行风电并网研究
Exeter Associates, Inc.
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Typical Study Scope
典型的研究范围
• Identify operational and cost issues
from increasing levels of wind
penetration
 Usually multiple scenarios of base,
10%, 20%, 30%
• Note: The study is about net wind
impacts (load minus wind), not just
wind alone, as the variations of load
and wind partially cancel each other
out
• Determine scope of study (all of China,
part of China)
• If not modeling all of China, determine
how to model areas external to study
• All assumptions, data inputs, and study
results should be public to encourage
maximum participation and overall
support of the study results
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 找出风电比例提高后带来的运行和经
济问题
 通常按照风电整体电源占比10%, 20%,
30%的几种情景开展研究
• 注意: 研究这些问题的时候，关注的
是风电的“净影响”（剔除了风电和
负荷能互冲的部分），而不仅仅是风
电本身的影响，因为负荷变化也可以
抵消一部分风电的影响。
• 确定研究范围（整个中国，或部分地
区）
• 如果不是针对整个中国研究，则需确
定如何选取研究目标区域
• 所有的假设、数据和研究结果应该对
外公布以实现广泛参与，促进研究结
论得到认可和支持
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Typical Study Scope (2)
典型的研究范围（2）
• Identify changes in
production costs (and cost
volatility) from higher levels
of wind penetration
• Identify changes in
requirements for reserves
over multiple time frames
• Consider whether existing
generating resources (i.e.,
coal, natural gas, hydro) can
accommodate higher levels
of wind generation
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 风电比重加大后，发电成本
的变化（成本波动）
• 不同时段对备用电源要求的
变化
• 考虑现有电源结构（比如煤
电、天然气发电、水电）是
否能接纳更多的风电
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What a Wind Integration Study
Does Not Do (Unless Designed to Do So)
风电并网研究可以忽略哪些问题
（除非设计意图如此）
• Additional maintenance
and forced outages and
derates
• Degradation of heat rate
from ramping, cycling and
range of operation
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 附加维护、被动停发和减
发
• 爬坡、循环和运行范围引
起的热效率下降
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Wind Integration Studies
Generally Have Multiple Parts
风电并网研究通常包含几个部分
• Production cost modeling (for
hourly simulations of power
flows, costs and dispatch)
• Statistical analysis (for
determining hourly deviations
in net load from adding wind,
and for determining sub-hourly
changes)
• Load flow analysis
• Transmission planning and
siting
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 发电成本模型（潮流、成本和
调度的小时间隔模拟）
• 统计分析(确定因增加风电导
致的净负荷每小时偏离，及小
时内变化)
• 潮流分析
• 输电线路规划和选择
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Organizational Set-Up
分工
•
•
•
Study time-consuming and labor-intensive
 Typical study time 1 year, and can take
longer
Need single organization to lead and take
responsibility
 With help from other organizations and
from Technical Review Committee
Consider who does the work
 Could be done in-house but hard to juggle
wind integration study with other
responsibilities
 Work typically is outsourced to multiple
consultants
 Power systems consultant
 Transmission/load flows consultant
 Wind resource and forecasting
consultant
Exeter Associates, Inc.
•
研究所需时间和人员付出
 一般来讲需要一年时间，可能还要更长
• 需要一家机构牵头和负责
 同时需要其他机构和技术审查委员会的帮助
• 考虑由谁来做
 可以内部来做，但是很难兼顾风电并网研究
以外的其他问题和事情
 通常把一些工作外包给多个咨询专家/公司
 电力系统专家
 输变电/潮流专家
 风资源和风电预测专家
21
Technical Review Committee
技术审查委员会
• Comprised of grid operators,
government energy officials,
renewable energy companies,
renewable energy experts and/or
consultants
• Help design study objectives and
approach and act as peer
reviewers
• Consider quarterly meetings, both
in-person and by telephone
• Provide education to all committee
participants
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 包含电网运营商、能源部门的政
府官员、可再生能源发电公司、
可再生能源专家和顾问
• 帮助设计研究目标和方案，并帮
助评议
• 考虑召开季度会议，既可以当面
开会交流，也可以电话会议
• 为成员提供培训
22
Scenarios
情景
• Include multiple scenarios of
increasing wind penetration, by
energy
• Start with base year (i.e., current
year or the last year with most
complete set of data)
• Include at least one scenario with
very high wind penetration (e.g.,
30% or 40%)
• Consider scenarios focused on
particular circumstances, e.g.,
geographically diversified wind,
high offshore wind, high
transmission, etc.
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 风电在能源结构中（依据发电量）
占比递增的多种不同情景
• 起始基年(比如有全套数据的当年
或上一年)
• 至少包含风电比例很高的一种情
景(比如30% 或 40%)
• 着重考虑特殊情况下的一些情景,
如地理分布较为分散的风电, 有
较多的海上风电,较大的送电需求
等
23
Scenarios
情景
•
•
•
•
Include multiple
scenarios of increasing
wind penetration, by
energy
Start with base year
(i.e., current year or
the last year with most
complete set of data)
Include at least one
scenario with very high
wind penetration (e.g.,
30% or 40%)
Consider scenarios
focused on particular
circumstances, e.g.,
geographically
diversified wind, high
offshore wind, high
transmission, etc.
Exeter Associates, Inc.
•
风电在能源结构中
（依据发电量）占比
递增的多种不同情景
•
起始基年(比如有全套
数据的当年或上一年)
•
至少包含风电比率很
高的一种情景(比如
30% 或 40%)
•
着重考虑特殊情况下
的一些情景, 如地理
分布较为分散的风电,
有较多的海上风电,较
大的送电需求等
24
Scenarios (2)
情景（2）
• Escalate generation (including
wind) and load data by annual
constant percentage to get to
future year
(e.g., 2%)
• Don’t project too far out into the
future, as it may be difficult to
control all the potential variables
 Studies typically forecast out 10
years
• May need to add generation over
study projection years to maintain
reliability
 U.S. studies typically add gas
turbines as proxy
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 基于年度固定百分比（如2%）逐
步升高的发电量 (包括风电)和负
荷数据
• 不要把预测的期限定的太远, 因
为很多潜在的变量是难以控制的
 一般来说研究预测的期限是
10年左右
• 为保持可靠性，可能需要在预测
研究的基础上再增加发电量
 美国这边的研究通常以天然
气发电量的增长来代表
25
Sensitivity Studies
敏感度研究
• May wish to do several sensitivity
studies
 Different natural gas and coal
prices
 Different fuel mixes
 Higher or lower projected
electricity demand
 More demand response
 Plug-in electric vehicles
 Different turnback capabilities for
coal units
 Differing levels of hydro flexibility
 Varying accuracy levels of wind
power forecast
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 可能要做几种敏感度研究
 不同的天然气和煤炭价格
 不同的燃料组合
 高一点或低一点的电力需求预测
 更好的需求响应
 插入式电动车
 不同的燃煤机组爬坡控制能力
 不同水平的水电灵活性
 风电预测的不同准确度
26
Assumptions to Make
假设/预测
• Projected future fuel costs for
natural gas and coal
• Expected future load growth
• Projected future transmission
grid
• Projected generating capacity
additions
• Whether to include $/ton
carbon dioxide adder or not
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 预测未来天然气和煤炭的燃料
价格
• 预期未来的负荷增长
• 预测未来的输电网络
• 预测发电装机的增加
• 是否包含二氧化碳减排成本
（美元/吨）
27
Data Needs
数据需求
• Multiple years (usually
three) of timesynchronized wind and
load data to capture interannual variability of load
and wind
• Use Numerical Weather
Prediction models to
recreate historical weather
data
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 多年（一般三年）的同期
风电及负荷数据，用以推
测风电和负荷情况的年际
变化
• 使用数值模拟气象预测模
型重现历史气象数据
28
Examples of Wind Data
风电数据示例
 Wind speed data extracted
from multiple-year model
runs that are at wind turbine
hub heights and converted
to wind power using wind
power curves
 从多年模型中取得轮毂
高度风速数据，并利用
风功率曲线换算为风能
 一般来讲，输出的风资
源数据格式是5分钟或10
分钟间隔
 Output is typically 5-minute
or 10-minute wind data
 Tons of data
 Use actual wind generation
to verify modeled wind data
 海量数据
 使用实际风电发电量来
核实模拟的风数据
 Need to factor in land use
restrictions such as urban
areas, national parks,
environmentally sensitive
areas, and other areas
unlikely to be developed
Exeter Associates, Inc.
 需要考虑土地征用限制
如城市范围、国家公
园、环境敏感区、及其
他相关因素，排除不能
开发风电的地区。
29
Data Needs (2)
数据需要（2）
• Sub-hourly load and generation
data (minute-by-minute, 10minute) for analysis of interesting
periods (high wind, high load, high
wind/low load, etc.)
• Load forecasts for multiple years
• This step always takes the longest,
and the integration study cannot
proceed without data
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 通过逐时负荷和发电数据（每分
钟间隔、10分钟间隔）做重点时
段分析（高比例风电出力，高负
荷，高风电/低负荷，等）
• 多年负荷预测
• 这步工作用时最长，但并网研究
缺了这些数据就没法继续
30
Wind Forecasts
风电预测
• Techniques for simulating
wind power forecasts not
well developed
• Two basic methods
 Impose random error on
top of wind generation
profiles
 Match up with another
wind forecast (covering
same time frame)
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 风电预测模拟技术尚未完
全成熟
• 两个基本方法
 对风力发电数据加以随机误
差分析
 与其他风电预测比对 (相同
时段)
31
Transmission
输电
• Need current and
projected load flows for
planned scenarios
• Also need to decide
whether to do detailed
transmission study for lowvoltage and high-voltage
transmission levels, or do
high-voltage schematic
and assume low-voltage
issues away
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 确定输电预期情景，需要
当前和预估的潮流情况
• 也需要决定是否针对低压
输电和高压输电做详细的
输电研究，或（假设不存
在低压问题）只做高压方
案研究。
32
Wind Integration Costs
风电并网成本
• In general, defined as the increased
system costs imposed by higher levels of
wind generation, but different viewpoints
on how to calculate wind integration
costs
• Two common methods:
 Flat block, where a power system
with wind is compared to a system
with an energy-equivalent flat block,
and the cost difference is the
integration cost
 System, focusing on wind’s impact on
commitment and dispatch and wind’s
net value from fuel savings and
reduced wholesale prices
• Newer, but still relatively untested, is
using an “ideal wind block” (perfectly
forecasted) instead of a flat block
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 风电并网成本，一般来说，主要都是
指因风电比重加大而导致的系统成本
上升，但在如何计算方面，存在一些
不同看法：
• 两种一般计算方法:
 “水平出力”（假设发电输出为恒
定），比较并入风电的电力系统
和相应能当量无风电的电力系统
的水平出力，差额就是并网成本
 主要看风电 接入对电力系统机组
组合、调度的影响，以及风电节
约燃料贡献的净价值、降低的电
力批发价格
• 有种新的方法，但相对欠缺验证，
就是用“理想风电 出力”(基于完美
预测)取代“水平出力”
33
Study
研究
• Inputs, assumptions, data
should be public and
transparent
• Study results should also
be made public
• Non-disclosure
agreements may be
required to get access to
sensitive data
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 内容、假设、数据等应该
公开透明
• 研究结果也要公布
• 对于敏感数据可能需要签
订保密协议
34
Questions to Consider
需要考虑的问题
• Would a methods
workshop in December be
valuable?
• Would it make sense to do
a wind integration study in
China?
• If yes, how to begin?
Exeter Associates, Inc.
• 12月召开研究方法的研讨
会是否很有意义？
• 在中国开展风电并网研究
有意义么？
• 有意义的话，如何开始？
35
Kevin Porter
Exeter Associates, Inc.
10480 Little Patuxent Parkway, Suite 300
Columbia, MD 21044
United States of America
1+410-992-7500
1+410-992-3445 fax
[email protected]