Transcript 2010 and 2030

Iran in 2030: The Future
Demographic
February 2011
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Iran in 2030
Population Past, Present and Future
Population Shift
Ageing
Men and Women in Iran
Births and Deaths
Diversity
Population by Citizenship
Cities
Data
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Summary
Population: 89.9 million
Median age: 37.5 years
Life expectancy: 76.1 years
Fastest-growing major
cities: 2010-2030
1. Karaj
2. Orumiyeh
3. Mashhad
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Population past, present and future
Age Structure of the Population at a Glance: 1980-2030
(Each dot represents a single-year age group)
• In 2030, the population of Iran will reach
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•
•
•
Reading the chart: This “heat chart” depicts changes in the age structure of
the population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a
specific (single year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot
shows the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular year
while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The areas of red
therefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms.
89.9 million, an increase of 19.8% from
2010. This growth will be driven by huge
increases in the population aged 40 and
above which will expand by 108%.
In 2030, the biggest opportunities will lie
in targeting those aged between 35 and
50 as identified by the red “hotspot” on the
chart. In 2030, there will be 26.2 million
Iranians in this age range accounting for
almost 1-in-3 of the population.
There will also be a smaller but still
important concentration of people aged
between 15 and 20.
Two age segments will be smaller in size
in 2030 than they were in 2010 – the 0-7s
and the 16-34s.
These complex trends are the result of
several factors including: a baby boom in
the 1980s and the subsequent fall in the
number of births in the 1990s, and an
increase in the number of births in the
2000s when the baby boomers of the
1980s reached childbearing age. Iran’s
large number of emigrants and
immigrants further complicate the
country’s demography.
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Iran in 2030
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Population shift
• The population is expected to top 80 million in 2016. This will represent a doubling of the population since 1980.
• Nevertheless, the rate of growth of the population is decelerating sharply decade by decade. In the 1980s, it
averaged 3.9% per annum but by the 2020s the rate of growth is expected to decelerate to 0.8% per annum.
• As birth rates fall, the number of those aged 0-7 is expected to fall between 2010 and 2030. There should also be
fewer Iranians aged 16-34 in 2030 than there were in 2010. This decline is due to the sharp fall in the number of
births in the 1990s. The number of births in 2000 was 30.8% lower than the figure in 1990.
• Conversely, there will be an increase in all age groups over 34 in 2010-2030; with a particularly sharp increase in
those aged 40-50. This is due to a baby boom which occurred in the 1980s. During the 1980s there was a total of
19,912 births, compared to 15,708 in the 1990s.
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Ageing
• The population of Iran is ageing at a fast rate from a low base. The median age stood at 26.7 years in 2010 and it is
expected to be 37.5 years in 2030. This contrasts sharply to earlier years – Iran had a median age of less than 20
years until 1997.
• Although, the fastest growth in numbers is in those of middle age – 40-50, the old are seeing strong gains in
percentage terms. The population aged 65+ is expected to increase by 125% between 2010 and 2030, while the
population aged 80+ is expected to increase by 59.1% during this period. In actual terms the 80+ age group remains
small, so this rate of growth translates to an increase of just 364,021 people.
• Life expectancy remains well below 80 years, but it is following a steady upwards trajectory. An Iranian born in 2010
could expect to live to 71.9 years, whereas an Iranian born in 2030 should be able to live to 76.1 years.
• Despite this sharp ageing process, Iran remains a young country. There will still be double the number of 0-14 year
olds in 2030 than Iranians aged 65+. This is a sharp drop however from the peak of more than 14 0-14s to every
person aged 65+ in 1988.
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Men and women in Iran
Age Pyramid: 2010 and 2030
• The age distribution of the Iranian population does
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not follow the traditional pyramid shape, nor the more
rectangular shape of most developed economies.
Rather it has a sharp bulge in those aged in their 20s
in 2010 and those in their 40s in 2030. This is due to
the baby boom seen in the 1980s.
The average age of the female population will
increase from 26.8 years in 2010, to 38.0 years in
2030. The equivalent figures for men are 26.6 and
37.0 years. The median age is first expected to
surpass 30 in 2016 for women and 2017 for men.
Those aged 20-29 represented the largest age
segments in 2010 for both men and women. While in
2030 those aged 40-49 will become the largest age
segments for both sexes. This is a natural result of
the ageing process.
Females are expected to outnumber males in each
age group over 60 in 2030, below which the reverse
is true except for a small segment aged 45-50.
Significant differences only emerge for those aged
80+ with 45.0% more women than men. However,
this age segment remains small, so this equates to
only 180,062 more women. This is due to higher
female life expectancy.
Females born in 2010 can expect to outlive men by
2.8 years, increasing to 3.5 years in 2030. This is
due to healthier lifestyles amongst women.
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Births and deaths
• According to the UN, Iran has seen the sharpest fall in fertility rates in the world. The sharp fall in fertility is due to
increased access to contraception as a result of a national programme for family planning and a rapid increase in the
education of women of childbearing age. Fertility rates in rural areas have dropped particularly sharply - in one
generation (around 30 years), rural Iranian women have moved from giving birth to an average of eight children to
around two children.
• Fertility rates first fell below replacement rate (2.1 births per female) in 2003 and stood at 1.8 births per female in
2010. After bottoming out in 2012, rates are expected to have increased slightly to 1.9 births in 2030. These rates are
among the lowest in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region.
• Birth rates are low and falling. They peaked in 1981 at 45.4 births per ‘000 population. In 2010 they stood at 18.5 per
‘000 inhabitants, by 2030 they are expected to fall to just 12.3. However, they are not the lowest in the region – due
to the high proportion of women of childbearing age.
• As the population grows and ages the number of deaths is increasing. However, the death rate is declining and will
not bottom out until 2018 when it will begin a slow climb as a result of the ageing population. In 2010, diseases of the
circulatory system were the most common cause of death.
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Diversity
• Iran has witnessed both a huge influx of arrivals and a huge flow of outward migrants making for a complicated
pattern of net migration.
• Iran witnessed a wave of emigration of the educated middle classes during and immediately following the 1979
revolution which has continued to the present day. This brain drain has affected all the professions in Iran. The IMF
estimates that Iran suffers from the highest brain drain in the world. The World Bank estimates that in 2000 the
emigration rate of the tertiary educated population stood at 14.5%.
• Since the mid 1990s Iran has also seen a large number of its less educated population leave – some illegally and
some applying for asylum, particularly in Europe.
• The most popular destination
countries for Iranians in 2010 were
the USA, Qatar, Canada, Kuwait,
Germany, Israel, the UK, Sweden, the
UAE and Bahrain. The World Bank
estimates that in this year the Iranian
diaspora totalled 1.3 million.
• Remittances are therefore an
important source of income in Iran. In
2010 they totalled US$1.1 billion,
equivalent to US$15 per capita.
However, a large amount of money
sent home is via a hawala system, an
informal network of money dealers
that provides a faster and cheaper
means of transfer, indicating that
remittances are probably much larger
than these official figures suggest.
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Population by citizenship
• In 2010, foreign citizens accounted for 2.4% of the population and in 2030 this proportion is expected to increase
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slightly to 2.6% or 2.3 million foreign citizens.
A large proportion of immigrants are refugees – 45.4% in 2010 according to the World Bank – mainly coming from
neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact Iran has one of the largest refugee populations in the world.
The majority of immigrants in Iran are male – 61.2% in 2010. Three quarters of foreign citizens come from
Afghanistan and this proportion is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2030.
Iran is home to a diverse range of ethnic groups, including the Fars, Azaris, Kurds, Arabs, Armenians, Assyrians,
Lors, Turkmens and Baluchis.
The official language is Persian or Farsi. In 2010, 35.7% of the population spoke Persian and this proportion is likely
to remain broadly the same in 2030.
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Iran in 2030
Population and Homes
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Cities
Iran’s 10 Biggest Cities: 2010/2020/2030
• Urbanisation has been proceeding at a fast rate,
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in fact Iran has one of the fastest rates of
urbanisation in the world. In 1980 less than half
of Iranians lived in urban areas. Today Iran is a
predominantly urban country, with 69.5% of the
population residing in urban areas in 2010. By
2030 this proportion will have increased further
to 77.9%.
Urbanisation was driven by the Iran-Iraq war in
the 1980s as large numbers of internally
displaced persons headed to the towns and
cities; and subsequently by a lack of investment
in rural areas.
In 2010 Iran had eight cities with a population of
more than 1 million. In 2030 this number should
increase to nine.
Tehran is by far the country’s largest city with a
population of 7.4 million in 2010 – almost 3 times
the size of the next largest city, Mashhad. By
2030 the population of Tehran should increase to
8.0 million and the city will be home to about
one-in-ten of the country’s urban residents.
All of Iran’s major cities are expected to increase
in size between 2010 and 2030, but the city of
Karaj is expected to see the strongest growth of
39.4% during this period. Karaj, in the north of
the country, benefits from its proximity to Tehran.
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Population and Homes
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Data
Population by 5-Year Age Group
Male Population by 5-Year Age Group
Female Population by 5-Year Age Group
Vital Statistics
Population by Citizenship
Population by City
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Data
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Population by 5-year age group
‘000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0-4
6,094
6,084
6,680
6,723
6,429
5,705
5,419
5-9
7,038
5,431
5,856
6,626
6,739
6,409
5,704
10-14
8,335
7,245
5,379
5,816
6,601
6,733
6,409
15-19
9,045
9,171
7,236
5,296
5,801
6,587
6,708
20-24
7,439
9,123
9,142
7,143
5,264
5,773
6,555
25-29
5,546
6,822
9,020
9,065
7,096
5,230
5,775
30-34
4,745
5,265
6,724
8,958
9,012
7,057
5,137
35-39
4,128
4,694
5,201
6,666
8,902
8,965
7,045
40-44
3,547
4,073
4,633
5,140
6,612
8,842
8,894
45-49
2,844
3,419
3,997
4,555
5,076
6,542
8,800
50-54
2,104
2,662
3,320
3,893
4,460
4,981
6,389
55-59
1,561
1,870
2,538
3,187
3,759
4,320
4,838
60-64
1,353
1,365
1,736
2,380
3,011
3,567
4,128
65-69
1,222
1,211
1,218
1,564
2,169
2,762
3,281
70-74
950
1,057
1,008
1,019
1,334
1,869
2,407
75-79
592
729
775
743
772
1,032
1,468
80+
360
542
616
679
705
759
980
TOTAL
66,903
70,765
75,078
79,454
83,740
87,134
89,936
Median Age
21.8
24.0
26.7
29.5
32.3
35.0
37.5
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Data
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Male population by 5-year age group
‘000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0-4
3,121
3,114
3,424
3,444
3,293
2,924
2,778
5-9
3,603
2,788
2,998
3,396
3,453
3,283
2,923
10-14
4,252
3,720
2,761
2,979
3,383
3,449
3,283
15-19
4,582
4,666
3,715
2,721
2,969
3,374
3,434
20-24
3,749
4,536
4,639
3,668
2,701
2,952
3,355
25-29
2,800
3,467
4,473
4,596
3,639
2,680
2,949
30-34
2,398
2,737
3,418
4,434
4,564
3,616
2,630
35-39
2,093
2,387
2,703
3,384
4,402
4,536
3,605
40-44
1,813
2,092
2,354
2,667
3,353
4,369
4,504
45-49
1,437
1,734
2,049
2,309
2,629
3,312
4,334
50-54
1,045
1,344
1,675
1,988
2,251
2,570
3,227
55-59
790
929
1,269
1,593
1,901
2,161
2,478
60-64
700
687
849
1,170
1,481
1,776
2,028
65-69
647
621
600
748
1,043
1,328
1,604
70-74
511
557
504
488
619
872
1,119
75-79
319
396
398
360
357
460
656
80+
188
282
324
343
334
332
400
TOTAL
34,048
36,058
38,154
40,289
42,371
43,993
45,309
Median Age
21.8
24.0
26.6
29.3
32.0
34.7
37.0
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Data
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Female population by 5-year age group
‘000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0-4
2,973
2,970
3,255
3,279
3,136
2,781
2,641
5-9
3,435
2,643
2,859
3,230
3,287
3,126
2,780
10-14
4,083
3,525
2,618
2,837
3,218
3,284
3,126
15-19
4,463
4,505
3,522
2,575
2,832
3,213
3,274
20-24
3,690
4,587
4,503
3,474
2,563
2,822
3,200
25-29
2,746
3,355
4,547
4,470
3,456
2,550
2,826
30-34
2,347
2,528
3,306
4,523
4,449
3,441
2,507
35-39
2,035
2,307
2,497
3,282
4,500
4,429
3,440
40-44
1,735
1,981
2,278
2,473
3,259
4,473
4,389
45-49
1,406
1,685
1,948
2,245
2,447
3,230
4,465
50-54
1,059
1,319
1,645
1,905
2,208
2,412
3,161
55-59
771
941
1,269
1,594
1,858
2,159
2,360
60-64
653
678
887
1,209
1,530
1,791
2,100
65-69
575
590
618
816
1,126
1,434
1,677
70-74
439
500
503
531
715
997
1,287
75-79
273
333
377
383
415
572
812
80+
172
259
292
336
371
427
580
TOTAL
32,854
34,707
36,924
39,165
41,369
43,141
44,627
Median Age
21.8
24.0
26.8
29.7
32.6
35.4
38.0
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Data
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Vital statistics
Birth rates
Live births (‘000)
Fertility rates
Age at childbirth
Net migration (‘000)
Death rates
Deaths (‘000)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
19.7
19.4
18.5
17.2
14.8
12.9
12.3
1,321.6
1,378.5
1,392.4
1,363.8
1,238.0
1,119.7
1,104.6
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
27.5
27.1
27.0
26.9
26.8
26.8
26.7
- 95.6
- 165.6
- 91.4
- 52.2
- 13.4
- 22.6
- 20.5
5.8
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.6
6.2
388.7
411.4
422.0
428.8
447.5
489.0
558.1
Note: Birth and death rates refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per female.
Age at childbirth refers to average age of women in years.
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Data
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Population by citizenship
‘000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Iran
65,592
69,203
73,246
77,431
81,575
84,868
87,591
Afghanistan
961
1,179
1,381
1,512
1,614
1,687
1,745
Iraq
160
67
27
27
29
30
31
11
15
19
21
22
23
24
Azerbaijan
3
7
11
12
14
14
15
Turkmenistan
1
3
4
5
6
6
6
Armenia
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
Turkey
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
173
288
387
441
478
502
520
Pakistan
Other countries
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Data
Population and Homes
© Euromonitor International
Population by city
‘000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Tehran
7,024
7,191
7,360
7,535
7,735
7,890
8,027
Mashhad
2,115
2,409
2,705
2,959
3,185
3,361
3,503
Esfahan
1,411
1,593
1,776
1,934
2,075
2,185
2,274
Karaj
1,116
1,359
1,602
1,807
1,985
2,124
2,234
Tabriz
1,287
1,400
1,515
1,616
1,709
1,782
1,841
Shiraz
1,135
1,230
1,327
1,413
1,492
1,554
1,605
Ahvaz
884
983
1,082
1,169
1,247
1,308
1,357
Qom
860
961
1,063
1,151
1,230
1,292
1,342
Kermanshah
742
798
855
905
953
990
1,020
Orumiyeh
498
577
656
724
783
829
866
42,952
47,366
52,177
57,100
62,003
66,252
70,023
Total urban
population
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Population and Homes
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