Transcript RISKS? - Madden Maritime

OPERATIONAL RISK
MANAGEMENT (ORM)
OBJECTIVES
 Describe
what ORM is and why the USCG
is using it.
 Describe
when and why to apply ORM.
 Use
the seven step USCG ORM process.
 Use
USCG ORM tools and job aids.
WHAT IS OPERATIONAL RISK
MANAGEMENT (ORM)?
 A systematic approach to optimizing risk
to support best mission outcomes.
 A specific seven step process supported
with tools and job aids.
USCG ORM VISION
“Increase mission success while reducing the
risk to personnel, resources and the
environment…”
“Change from a compliance based to a riskbased philosophy…”
“Provide logical process to identify & exploit
opportunities producing greatest return on
our investment…”
WHY IMPLEMENT ORM?
 ORM applications are proven to offer mission
supportive breakthrough potential.
 Force reductions make every USCG person and
item of equipment more critical to mission
success.
 ORM can significantly increase USCG operational
capabilities and training realism.
4 KEY ORM PRINCIPLES
1. Accept no unnecessary risks.
2. Make risk decisions at the appropriate level.
3. Accept risks when benefits outweigh costs.
4. Integrate ORM into operations and planning at
all levels.
1. Accept No Unnecessary Risks
BUT.... NOBODY TAKES
“UNNECESSARY” RISKS?
If all the hazards that could have been
detected have not been detected then
unnecessary risks are being accepted.
The single greatest advantage of ORM over
traditional risk management is the consistent
detection of 50%+ more hazards.
2. Make Risk Decisions at the
Appropriate Level
Factors below become basis of a decision-making
system to guide leaders





Who has operational control & responsibility?
Who is the senior person at the scene?
Who possesses best insight into the full benefits and costs
of a risk?
Who has the resources to mitigate the risk?
What level makes the most operational sense?
3. Accept Risks When Benefits
Outweigh Costs.
MAINTAINING A BOLD,
RISK-TAKING
ORGANIZATION IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE.
ORM HELPS.
Taking calculated risks is essential for an organization to
grow and capitalize on its capabilities.
4. Integrate ORM Into Operations
and Planning At All Levels.
Loss Control
Staff Injects
Operational
Process
Operational
Leaders Add-On
Operational
Process
This is the one we
want!!
Operational
Process
Loss Control
Occurs Within
The Process
HOW WILL THE COAST GUARD
IMPLEMENT ORM?
 Apply the seven step ORM process and
the supporting tools
 In a consistently mission supportive way
 Through a highly integrated and
decentralized approach
HOW DO WE ASSURE THAT ORM IS
ALWAYS MISSION SUPPORTIVE?
 Target optimum mission risk, not minimum
risk.
 Involve operators to insure risk controls are
mission supportive.
 Use only the amount of ORM dictated by the
risk. Low risk - less ORM, high risk - more
ORM.
USING THE 7-STEP PROCESS
THE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINUUM
PLANNING
-Deliberate ORM
-Detailed Hazard ID
-Integrated
OPERATIONS
AFTER-ACTION
-Largely Time-Critical
-Change Analysis
-Real Time
-Highly Decentralized
-Assess Indicators
-Deliberate ORM
-Integration
-Feedback
We try to get
most ORM done
here
But continue
the process
here and here
WHAT IS THE SEVEN STEP
ORM PROCESS?
Identify Mission Tasks
A decision-making technique
Identify Hazards
A job aid & tool
Assess Risks
Identify Options
Optimizes risk
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
Monitor Situation
Step 1 - Identify Mission Task
(COMDTINST 3500.3, Encl 1)
Clearly state the
mission objective.
Define what tasks are
required to
accomplish the
mission.
Define the conditions
under which to
accomplish the task.
Identify Mission Tasks
Identify Hazards
Assess Risks
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
Monitor Situation
THE MISSION ANALYSIS
UNDERSTANDING THE FLOW
OF EVENTS
MISSION ANALYSIS
 METHOD: List the events in sequence.
 RESOURCES: Mission planners & operators.
 COMMENTS: ORM must cover all aspects of an
operation. The Mission Analysis supports that.
The “MA” is a must do!
MISSION ANALYSIS
Advance Rescue Ops
 Beach party on scene.
 Launch aircraft.
 Enroute considerations.
 Approach to water.
 “Survivor” & RS events.
 Aircraft Switch-Out
 Subsequent Scenarios
 Recovery all elements
Step 2 - Identify the Hazards
(COMDTINST 3500.3, page 4)
Hazard:
Any real or potential
condition that can
cause mission
degradation, injury,
illness, or death to
personnel or damage
to or loss of
equipment or
property.
Identify Mission Tasks
Identify Hazards
Assess Risks
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
Monitor Situation
HAZARD ANALYSIS
What can go wrong?
Focus on the critical
components of your mission:
•Equipment
•Personnel/Experience
•Environment
•Timeline
OVERALL MISSION
HAZARD ANALYSIS
 P.E.A.C.E.
 Planning
 Event
What Can Go Wrong?
• Equipment
• Personnel
• Environment
• Timeline
 Asset
 Communication
 Environment
What Safe Guards
Exist?
How Effective Are
They?
Step 3 - Assess the Risks
Identify Mission Tasks
The Process
which associates
“hazards
with
“risks”.
Identify Hazards
Assess Risks
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
Monitor Situation
HAZARD VERSUS RISK
HAZARD
RISK
A description of a condition that
can impair mission
accomplishment.
No indication of its mission
significance.
A hazard for which we have
estimated the severity,
probability, and exposure
to determine the scope
with which it can impact
our mission.
ASSESS RISKS
SEVERITY - What are the effects?
PROBABILITY - Can this happen to us?
EXPOSURE - What is the event frequency
or degree of involvement?
SEVERITY
Potential Consequences measured
in terms of degree of impact on:
 Mission
 Man
 Machine/Materiel
SEVERITY CATEGORIES
CATASTROPHIC - Complete mission failure, death, or
loss of system.
MAJOR - Major mission degradation, severe injury,
occupational illness, or major system damage.
SIGNIFICANT - Minor mission degradation, injury, minor
occupational illness, or minor system damage.
MINIMAL - Less than minor mission degradation, injury,
occupational illness or minor system damage.
NONE - No impact to personnel or mission outcome.
PROBABILITY
 Likelihood that potential consequences
will occur:
 Very likely to happen
 Likely, greater than 50% chance
 Occasional, about 50-50 chance
 Unlikely under normal conditions
 Remote under any conditions
Acknowledge “uncertainty”
EXPOSURE
Duration/repetition/number of people
&/or equipment involved in event:
 Great
 Above
Average
 Average
 None or below average
THE RISK PRIORITY LIST
Biggest hazard
Least hazard
worthy of action
By ranking the hazards, we can
work them on a worst first
basis. This is vital because risk
control resources are always
limited and should be directed
at the big problems first to
assure maximum
bang for the buck.
USCG Aviation Risk Assessment
Model
Simplifies SPE assessment
through use of
Green Amber Red (GAR) Model
Date: _______ Mission: ___________________________
C. Airframe/Resources
Risk Assessment
Review questions and circle the score according to
currently available information. Score items according to
the examples given and instincts. Absence of data
automatically sets the score to maximum point value.
Planning:
Thoroughness of pre-mission planning.
Factors which increase risk, B-0 response
assets, in-flight divert of asset.
Adequate
1
h
Minimal
2
3
1
Partially Mission
Capable
2
5
Adequate
1
h2
Environment:
Clear Guidance
Benign
2
4
Selection of appropriate resources. Factors that
effect risk: time at unit, unfamiliar w/OP area, fatigue,
flight time (total time & time in type), crew rest, 5181’s,
requestor’s knowledge of asset capabilities.
2
1
Adequate
2
3
h
Marginal
4
6
Marginal
4
5
1
Hazardous
8
10
Adequate
3
Marginal
4
5
Risk vs. Gain
Low Gain – Situation with intangible benefits or a low
probability for providing concrete results. Examples
include passenger transport, non-critical logistics missions,
PAO demonstration flight, etc.
Medium Gain – Situation that provides immediate,
tangible benefits. Examples include saving property,
protecting the environment, deterring illegal operations.
High Gain– Situation that provides immediate, tangible
benefits that if ignored could result in loss of life.
Examples include Urgent SAR and MEDEVACs.
Given the mission description above, what is the “Gain”
for this mission?
Vs.
Risk Management
Risk Management is the decision to control or reduce
hazards. Below are Control Options to assist in risk
control or reduction. Review the options and reassess the
risks as appropriate.
air/surface assets.
2
Re-assess Step 1 Values
5
Spread-out – Disperse the risk by launching additional
B. Aircrew
Excellent
h
Additional
PRECOM/EXCOM, bring in fresh or more experienced
crew.
None
4
Add the values for each Risk Assessment and plot
the final Risk Assessment on graph below (include
re-assessment from Step 2).
A. Pilots
h
3
5
Asset:
Excellent
Marginal
External condition surrounding mission:
Weather, night, illumination, mountainous sea
state, terrain, cutter based, alternate airfields,
water temp, on-scene cover.
Complex/
Innovation Required
3
5
assumption of risk. In these cases a decision to accept risk
may be made with the stipulation that risk is reevaluated as
the mission progress. (No adjustment to Risk
Assessment)
Reduce – Reduce or limit risk exposure:
Refers to mission complexity and guidance or
doctrine available. Factors which may increase
risk: sketchy details or non-standard mission
profile.
1
4
Ability to maintain comms throughout
mission. Factors: internal w/command and
external w/customer.
Event:
h
3
Communications:
None
4
Fully Mission
Capable
h
Accept – In some cases the benefit might justify the
Risk Assessment
(Hi/Med/Lo)
Gain
(Hi/Med/Lo)
Use the Risk vs. Gain Chart on the next page
for a recommendation on how to proceed
with the mission.
Transfer – If practical, locate a better suited asset to
conduct the mission i.e. different airframe, surface asset, or
crew.
Avoid
– Circumvent hazard: Wait for risk to subside i.e.
wait until daylight or weather passes.
8
Low
6
24
Medium
32
40
High
Step 4. Identify Options
 Are risks acceptable or
unacceptable?
Identify Mission Tasks
Identify Hazards
 Can we modify the mission to
reduce risk?
Assess Risks
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
 Are any safeguards missing?
Execute Decision
Monitor Situation
 What new options should we
consider?
Use Risk Priority List - Attack “Worst First”
IDENTIFY OPTIONS
S.T.A.A.R
Spread
Out
Transfer
Avoid
Accept
Reduce
Mission Priority & Time Criticality Often Drive Options
Step 5. Evaluate Risk vs Gain
 Seek optimal risk management
 Gain should balance or outweigh the Risk
 Risk Decision made at lowest appropriate level
 Command validates Assessment & Management
Equates to “Reality Check”
Date: _______ Mission: ___________________________
C. Airframe/Resources
Risk Assessment
Review questions and circle the score according to
currently available information. Score items according to
the examples given and instincts. Absence of data
automatically sets the score to maximum point value.
Planning:
Thoroughness of pre-mission planning.
Factors which increase risk, B-0 response
assets, in-flight divert of asset.
Adequate
1
h
Minimal
2
3
1
Partially Mission
Capable
2
5
Adequate
1
h2
Environment:
Clear Guidance
Benign
2
4
Selection of appropriate resources. Factors that
effect risk: time at unit, unfamiliar w/OP area, fatigue,
flight time (total time & time in type), crew rest, 5181’s,
requestor’s knowledge of asset capabilities.
2
1
Adequate
2
3
h
Marginal
4
6
Marginal
4
5
1
Hazardous
8
10
Adequate
3
Marginal
4
5
Risk vs. Gain
Low Gain – Situation with intangible benefits or a low
probability for providing concrete results. Examples
include passenger transport, non-critical logistics missions,
PAO demonstration flight, etc.
Medium Gain – Situation that provides immediate,
tangible benefits. Examples include saving property,
protecting the environment, deterring illegal operations.
High Gain– Situation that provides immediate, tangible
benefits that if ignored could result in loss of life.
Examples include Urgent SAR and MEDEVACs.
Given the mission description above, what is the “Gain”
for this mission?
Vs.
Risk Management
Risk Management is the decision to control or reduce
hazards. Below are Control Options to assist in risk
control or reduction. Review the options and reassess the
risks as appropriate.
air/surface assets.
2
Re-assess Step 1 Values
5
Spread-out – Disperse the risk by launching additional
B. Aircrew
Excellent
h
Additional
PRECOM/EXCOM, bring in fresh or more experienced
crew.
None
4
Add the values for each Risk Assessment and plot
the final Risk Assessment on graph below (include
re-assessment from Step 2).
A. Pilots
h
3
5
Asset:
Excellent
Marginal
External condition surrounding mission:
Weather, night, illumination, mountainous sea
state, terrain, cutter based, alternate airfields,
water temp, on-scene cover.
Complex/
Innovation Required
3
5
assumption of risk. In these cases a decision to accept risk
may be made with the stipulation that risk is reevaluated as
the mission progress. (No adjustment to Risk
Assessment)
Reduce – Reduce or limit risk exposure:
Refers to mission complexity and guidance or
doctrine available. Factors which may increase
risk: sketchy details or non-standard mission
profile.
1
4
Ability to maintain comms throughout
mission. Factors: internal w/command and
external w/customer.
Event:
h
3
Communications:
None
4
Fully Mission
Capable
h
Accept – In some cases the benefit might justify the
Risk Assessment
(Hi/Med/Lo)
Gain
(Hi/Med/Lo)
Use the Risk vs. Gain Chart on the next page
for a recommendation on how to proceed
with the mission.
Transfer – If practical, locate a better suited asset to
conduct the mission i.e. different airframe, surface asset, or
crew.
Avoid
– Circumvent hazard: Wait for risk to subside i.e.
wait until daylight or weather passes.
8
Low
6
24
Medium
32
40
High
Risk vs Gain
Low
Risk
Medium
Risk
High
Risk
High Gain
Medium Gain
Low Gain
Accept the Mission.
Continue to monitor
Risk Factors, if
conditions or mission
changes.
Accept the Mission.
Continue to monitor
Risk Factors and
employ Control
Options when
available.
Accept the Mission
only with Command
endorsement.
Communicate Risk vs.
Gain to Chain of
Command. Actively
pursue Control
Options to reduce Risk.
Accept the Mission.
Continue to monitor
Risk Factors, if
conditions or mission
changes.
Accept the Mission.
Continue to monitor
Risk Factors and
employ Control
Options when
available.
Accept the Mission
only with Command
endorsement.
Communicate Risk vs.
Gain to Chain of
Command. Actively
pursue Control
Options to reduce Risk.
Accept the Mission. Reevaluate Risk vs. Gain,
should Risk Factors
change.
Accept the Mission.
Continue to monitor
Risk Factors and
actively pursue Control
Options to reduce Risk.
Do not Accept the
Mission. Communicate
to Chain of Command.
Wait until Risk Factors
change or Control
Options warrant.
Step 6. Execute Decision
 Control Options must be
implemented
Identify Mission Tasks
Identify Hazards
Assess Risks
 Decision Rational must be
communicated
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
 Facilitates S.A. regarding Risk
Management process
Monitor Situation
Step 7. Monitor Situation
 Insure Control Options are
effective
Identify Mission Tasks
Identify Hazards
Assess Risks
 ID changes requiring further
RA/RM
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
 Capture “Lessons Learned”
Monitor Situation
Failure to respond to changes can become Links in the Mishap Chain
Questions?
USING THE 7-STEP PROCESS
LEVELS OF EFFORT
“TIME CRITICAL”
“DELIBERATE”
“STRATEGIC”
Little:
- Time
- Complexity
- Risk
Lot of:
- Time
- Complexity
- Risk
ORM is applied proportionate
to operational complexity,
criticality, and risk!